EDIT My apologies for delays in this response. I wrote an incredibly long and detailed post that failed to send and got erased , so here’s attempt #2

First, addressing the replies:

1) Angle-shooting. Buddy from the hand did not believe in-game that the villain intended to/was angle shooting. I didn't really make this clear in OP, my apologies. In any case, I think the more we look at the math of the situation, the less we'll really worry about debating if he's angle shooting or not.

2) Perceptions of villain.  (Again, my fault with OP). Villain is a young TAG, or maybe semi-LAG, player. Probably not a professional but definitely not brain-dead.

3) I dont think we should be concerned about “only getting called by better.” Villain raised to 7k and we have 11k behind. Angling or not, nobody folds for the remaining 11k after live mis-clicking. If we’re “only getting called by better” that means he’ll be folding some hands incorrectly, and maybe we’ll be forcing out some hands that have 45-50% equity against us (KQs, for example).

4) What about people left to act? I thought this was actually a pretty interesting question to ask, since we have 7 players left to act, so I tried my best to incorporate that into our equations. If we were to jam over this raise, lets assume we'll only get called by AA and KK. I calculated one of the other 7 players in the hand will wake up with these hands ~6% of the time. (1-[1314/1326]^7). This won't be *perfect* as it does not consider UTG's opening range/blockers. As it turns out, this consideration lessened our EV somewhat but never enough to fundamentally change our decision (see below).

With these in mind, let's break down a few possibilities:

1) He opens a pretty tight UTG range and never folds to our shove. (The Fold Equity = 0 Scenario) Here, for some simplicity, I gave him a top 10% opening range, which is {AA-77,AxKx-Ax9x,AxKy-AxJy,KxQx-KxTx,KxQy,QxJx}. JJ has 58% equity against this range.

EV(JJ) = 0.94[0.58(18700) + .42(-18,000)] + 0.06[.19(25,700) + .81(-18,000)]

EV = 2704 (+9.01bb)

2) What if he opens a tight range and stack sizes pressure him to fold his worst hands? I removed A9s, KQo, KJo, and QJs from his calling range, gave us the proper FE and ran our equity against the remaining hands. Our equity changed only very slightly (57%), and now we take down the pot about 20% of the time by shoving.  

EV(JJ) = 0.94[.19(7,700) + (.81)[.57(18700) + .43(-18,000)]] + 0.06[.19(25,700) + .81(-18,000)]

EV(JJ) = 3015 (+10.05bb)

We'll also expect to bust the tournament less over the no-fold scenario—38% instead of 44%.

3) What if he's angle shooting? For our worst-case scenario, I gave him the top 5% of hands and calling 100% of the time. JJ is still 49% vs that range.

EV(JJ) = .49(18700) + .51(-18,000)

EV(JJ) = 9163 – 9180

EV(JJ) = -17 (-0.06bb)

We basically break even (but risk busting the main ½ the time) even when he's at the top of his range. If we factor in how often another random wakes up with AA-KK, we’re losing about 2bb on average in this scenario.

Lastly, for me, the litmus test of this spot is what our EV would be even if Villain was a superuser who played perfectly vs our hand, so

4) What if he could play perfectly vs our shove? He would call with all hands in his opening range that have at least 42.8% equity vs JJ, which happens to be {AA-JJ,AxKx,AxQx,AxKy,AxQy,KxQx,KxQy} (72 combos)

How tightly / How few combos does he have to be opening for our shove to be un-profitable?

5.6% = 76 combos {AA-JJ,AK-AQ,KQ,AxJx}

(.94)[(0.055)(7,700) + (0.945)[0.49(18,700) + .51(-18,000)]] + 0.06[.19(25,700) + .81(-18,000)]

-198

Top 6.5% = 88 combos

(.94)[(0.18)(7,700) + (0.82)[0.49(18,700) + .51(-18,000)]] + 0.06[.19(25,700) + .81(-18,000)]

+708

Top 10% = 132 combos

(.94)[0.455(7,700) + .545[(0.46)(18,700) + 0.54(-18,000)]] + (0.06)[.19(25,700) + .81(-18,000)]

+2139

Even if Villain could see our hand and play perfectly, he would still have to start with an incredibly tight opening range for our shove to be unprofitable in a vacuum.

———-

When first approached about the hand, I told Hero I would probably shove and hate life, but still shove. After looking at the math more closely, I am much more in favor of shoving. The downside is we will expect to bust the tournament somewhere around 40% of the time we do this, and I suspect that will make some of us want to fold “because it’s the main.” To be fair, I don’t know exactly what % threshold should make us unwilling to take on a profitable cEV play in a field such as this. It may be the main event, but how many +900bb/100 spots can we afford to pass on?

Result: Hero shoved JJ and was sigh-called by UTG's AQ. He lost the flip to bust.

Wilo,

First,
a great way to explore where the bottom of your shoving range lies here, is to continue with the “Playing Perfectly” analysis above, but instead substituting your TT in for JJ, and re-running numbers. There, we’d ask “How would we fare even if Villain could see we had TT and called with every hand with >=43% equity vs TT?” You could then re-write the EV equation with the proper numbers and see how TT fares.

Hint: Villain could now call us with 102 combos in his original opening range, {AA-TT,AK-AJ,KQ,KxJx,QxJx}, and TT has 46.5% equity against that range. Hope this is a good start.

Second,
We actually dont have to “hope” for much of anything. As I showed in the post above, the math demonstrates we are actually sort of indifferent to him “angle-shooting” or not. In the EV analysis, even if we were nearly 100% sure he was angle shooting (and we’re not), we’re still breaking even by shoving into that range. If he’s ever opening ANYTHING wider than 5% (hint: he is), we can show a built-in profit by shoving.

Third,
The risk-reward for a 10k is going to be up to each individual person, and reflect their own reasons for playing the event. Sounds like a stock-photo answer, but it’s really the truth. Some players play to gamble it up and maximize their “sweat,” others are trying to at least cash so they have a return on their (once/twice in a lifetime) investment, while yet others claim to only play for the bracelet. How you “should” treat a 10k in this regard isnt advice any pro can properly give you.