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Value call or tourney suicide?
Percyscores
Flounder
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Forum Posts: 6
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November 3, 2014
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February 7, 2015 - 4:30 am
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PokerStars Hand #130035439829: Tournament #1126519230, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (50/100)

Table '1126519230 533' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: song1984 (5650 in chips) 
Seat 2: mataf1949 (10775 in chips) 
Seat 3: sherep66 (4962 in chips) 
Seat 4: KMC12 (3605 in chips) 
Seat 5: TommyCrown (2702 in chips) 27bb
Seat 6: IndaFirst (4855 in chips) 
Seat 7: mindhackerrr (4738 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: AlexTsGr (1593 in chips) 
Seat 9: geoqonda (14148 in chips) 

Antes are in
geoqonda: posts small blind 50
song1984: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TommyCrown [Jh Js]
(UTG) mataf1949: calls 100
sherep66: folds 
KMC12: folds 
TommyCrown: raises 150 to 250
IndaFirst: folds 
mindhackerrr: folds 
AlexTsGr: folds 
(SB) geoqonda: calls 200
song1984: folds 
mataf1949: calls 150

Pot: 940
 *** FLOP *** [9c 7d 4s] 
geoqonda: checks 
mataf1949: bets 100
TommyCrown: raises 600 to 700
geoqonda: calls 700
mataf1949: calls 600

Pot:3040
*** TURN *** [9c 7d 4s] [7h]
geoqonda: checks 
mataf1949: bets 4900
TommyCrown: calls 1742 and is all-in
geoqonda: folds 

I only had 8 hands on the main villian (Mataf1949) and he was 50/38/3B 33% with 1 flop donk bet and call, so I was already leaning towards him being active/possibly maniac to be confirmed, but range could be anything on a limp/call, especially suited.

The size of my flop raise is larger than normal as I am fairly sure villian will call once with anything after a donk and I want to set up an easy turn shove… when the 7 comes I sort of expected a shove, as it's a major scare card, and 9x/4x/T8/86/overcards plus smaller pairs may turn hand into bluff which I felt such a player was capable of.

I saw it as a 50/50 decision turning some sort of hand into bluff v 7x scared/deceptive shove and with nearly 3-1 odds and only 17bb remaining called…

Am I just getting lucky here if still ahead… and should I be more concerned about third player dynamic still to act… or is this a long term +EV potential treble up or out standard MTT dynamic

Cheers

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