No history on the villian, but the dynamic of the hand felt like he was on a draw… leading out on a paired board suggested that he didn't have a set especially given three limpers. Should I have tried a 'value' bet on the river, or just check it down??
Poker Stars $2.50+$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
UTG: t10727 53.63 BBs
UTG+1: t1710 8.55 BBs
UTG+2: t15408 77.04 BBs
MP1: t1875 9.38 BBs
MP2: t12784 63.92 BBs
Hero (CO): t5266 26.33 BBs
BTN: t21903 109.52 BBs
SB: t4929 24.64 BBs
BB: t21810 109.05 BBs
Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is CO with 7 7
3 folds, MP1 calls t200, MP2 calls t200, Hero calls t200, 2 folds, BB checks
Flop: (t900) 3 6 3 (4 players)
BB bets t400, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls t400
Turn: (t1700) K (2 players)
BB bets t800, Hero raises to t1600, BB calls t800
River: (t4900) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ????
way too thin a value bet imo
the only hand we beat that we may get an inch of value from is a 6 of some kind.. and i doubt thats going to happen.. possibly A high if he can confidently think we have a bluff.
when he checks the river it looks so much like 45 or a weak 6 neither of which are likely to call, so i see no reason to open the door for a crazy river bluff shove by villain if we bet
1st off one important factor here is that you are starting the hand with only 26bb's; by the time it gets to you there is already 700 in the middle (13% of your stack if there are no antes). You can make a case for shoving, also raising to 800-950 to gets heads up with 1 of the limpers. I don't mind the limp behind if there are no antes but you are getting pretty shallow to play post flop pots here. If there were short stacks in the behind you I like a limp more as 1 of them may shove. As played there is no way you can fold 77 on the 633 flop once the other 2 limpers fold; it seems like the BB has a 6 or 45…or air hoping that everyone else missed. I like a flat on his flop lead as you aren't afraid of much, if he has 45 he can only hit a 2, if he has a random 6 you are also pretty safe. I also don't mind a raise as he has a ton of chips and will most likely call with a 6 or the 45 and it should set you up for a jam on the turn. If you flat the flop there is now 1700 in the middle and you have 4600 behind, when he leads 800 on the turn again I think you can either flat or raise. Your stack is a little awkward, prob a little too much to shove, but raising to 1600-2400 only leaves you a couple k behind…I think there is enough in the pot to now protect your hand/get value from his draws and 6's so I think I favor a raise here. Once he calls the raise I don't think there is much point to bet the river, protecting your tournament life is more important than picking up another 1-2k in chips.
I dont like the limp pre for reasons already explained. Its def a raise spot. But putting all that aside the question is as played do you value this river and imo. Its just way to thin. Also as you stated you put him on a flush draw and if this is the case he isnt paying your value bet anyway. So the only options for him are to fold. Which doesnt help you if you value or for him to shove and if he does then it puts you in a hella weird spot. So check behind here always is the right choice.
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