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UTG Min raise and call with 42o
Brentl2
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May 18, 2013 - 3:48 am
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Playing a live $50 turbo satellite 18 remain 10 get through, average stack is aboout 6 BB I have about Average stack..guy UTG has about 18 BB he minraises .. folds to me in SB .. I have JJ… I Shove .   he calls with 42o..

 

He had been aggressive through the tournament, however most of the chips that he had, he had just won a few hands before ..  I had had him out chipped most of the tourny.

 

I have to give the guy some credit, he has over $1.13 Million in online winnings.

 

Im trying to work out his strategy he had most people out chipped if not all other players, but not by a lot and there were several people who could have really crippled him, no one is anywhere near deep. .

 

The only thing that makes sense is that we are approaching the pay level in this satellite. so he knows people are playing to get a seat in the next round, so are only shoving with strong hands, these are far more likely to be Ax hands than pairs and has plans to call pretty much any shove as he likely has has 40% equity, he is super unlikely to be dominated here.. I wonder what is limit is too if he calls or folds? Does he call any shove as long as he is heads up? Does he call anyone with below a certain number of blinds? Is it a bit of both? Does he base his call on the position of the shover?

 

He is clearly betting here knowing that he is going to be behind any shove and any callers, or have to play OOP against callers or get in a dog to any shoves.. He is clearly prepared to go to showdown when shoved upon!!!

 

Any thoughts on this strategy when you are about 18 BB's? He had been at my table most of the event and everything i took to showdown with were good hands AK, AT, TT, 66.

 

I had started to be a bit more aggressive as more people are folding to make it through, I give him credit for paying attention to what Im doing and he would have kown im only playing premium hands here. he is sure good enough to pay attention.

 
PS   I lost the hand  RAH  , but there has to be something to his strategy and I'm interested in your thoughts. 

Sen
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May 18, 2013 - 11:01 am
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He only has to call 4 BB to access the ~ 9 BB in the pot. These are fantastic odds if he thinks you will be shoving only in 20% of the time with a pair. I am not sure, since the action tightens up quite a bit before a SAT bubble I guess he thought he needed a few BB more to ensure his ITM ticket, so it was a correct ICM call.

That's what my guess is, I am not a pro at all, so let's see what the pros have to say about this one.

Brentl2
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May 18, 2013 - 8:31 pm
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If he needs to call 4 BB to win 9 and he thinks that he has 35-40% equity im not sure i would call it fantastic odds, given that his min raise + the 4 BB is approx 1/3 of his stack. 

Its a pretty high risk way to chip up imo.

Why was he playing 42 to start off with across 9 players?  there has to be more to it . we are still 8 away from the seats. Im not sure that ICM comes into it at all its mrore of and EV calculation I would have thought.

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