This hand’s been bugging me for 2 days.

Day 1 of Venetian $600 with $200K guaranteed that went way over the guarantee. Late reg had ended about an hour ago. I just got moved to a new table about 10 hands ago, so I don’t have many reads yet. 

1500/3000 level. I have 130K in chips and I get pocket 10s on the button.

UTG (100K, seems aggressive in tiny sample) makes it 6.5K. Folds to me on button with 10/10. I debate 3betting, but instead I flat, since I’m not dying to 3bet get it in with 10s to a UTG raiser. BB (75K) also calls. 

Flop: J,6,3 rainbow. UTG bets $7K into $24K pot. I call. BB also calls.

Turn: Ace (rainbow). J-6-3-A board ($45K pot). Checks around.

River: Ace. J-6-3-A-A board ($45K pot). UTG tanks for a really long time and bets $27K. I tank for a bit and call. BB folds. Results at the end.

I’m fine flatting preflop. Not dying to get in 34 big blinds with TT against a UTG raiser., since if I 3-bet, I’m not folding to a shove. I don’t think raising is bad, but I went lower variance.

On the flop, I’m also fine with my play. The bet is tiny, but I look at it as a normal C-bet size on a pretty uncoordinated board where 2 players easily could have missed. If I raise, UTG doesn’t fold any better hands, and I don’t have much hope for my hand to improve if I’m behind.

On the turn, I think I should have bet. I think the big blind has a lot of jacks once he overcalls the flop bet, meaning my hand doesn’t have a lot of showdown value, and I think UTG would have continued if he had an ace. I could conceivably have ATs with a backdoor flush draw on the flop, and I could also have A6s, A3s and AJ. Maybe if I was nitty with AQo preflop, I could call with that to a small flop bet. I don’t have a lot of aces in my range, but I have some. And if I bet turn, I’m betting all non-jack rivers as a bluff.

On the river, I’m not sure what to do. I think the likelihood anyone has an ace is very small, but the likelihood I call the flop with an ace and then check it back on the turn is probably even smaller. So what is he betting with? Is this a big value bet with KK or QQ trying to get called by a jack? Would a jack bet that much? Not all players would value bet with those hands, and like I said, I don’t think he has an ace much. He still has a lot of weak hands in his range that would bet that flop hoping for folds, like KQ, KT, suited connectors. Maybe he has a smaller pocket pair that he thinks he needs to turn into a bluff.

But would he bluff into 2 people? The good news if I want to hero call is that once I call, I think the BB folds 95% of the time. Maybe JK finds a call, but I think he folds all his weaker jacks to a river bet and a call. 

If BB had made this bet instead of UTG, I would have folded.

Results: UTG shows up with JKo, and made a great decision to value bet against a calling station like me. I thought my opponent played this hand great, but I’m not sure about my play.