TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I like the raise pre and I like the decision not to c-bet.
I think the decision between raising and calling on the river really depends on two things:
1) Villain’s range for leading river
2) Villain’s range for calling a raise
When it comes to 1) I think it’s obvious villain would lead any two pair or better here, but the only two pairs that are really in their range for flatting the SB are maybe 65s, perhaps A5s or A6s. They can have a lot of busted flush draw bluffs and some one-pair value-bets with AT/AJ, but they can’t really have the straight. So their range contains a fair number of bluffs but it’s quite capped – probably the only parts of it we’re afraid of are 55/66, since they probably wouldn’t lead turn with 88.
As for 2), it’s sort of difficult to see us being able to get called by a worse two-pair since we block A5/A6 and villain might not flat much of that preflop anyway, and 56 isn’t super happy versus a river raise. We obviously get called by sets which we don’t like. The only other thing that might push us into raising territory would be if we felt villain could call with just one pair, like AT/AJ, but in order for that to be the case they have to expect us to bluff-raise this river some frequency. It’s possible since there are two missed flush draws, but it’s less likely.
In general I think when we block a lot of the hands we might be looking to get value from (those strong Ax hands) and it’s hard to see many weaker two-pair combos, I think we’re better off bluff-catching here. I think our range is mostly defined as bluff-catchers and villain’s is more polarized so as long as we make good bluff-catching decisions here I don’t think it really hurts us to not have much of a raising range at all, either for value as a bluff. I think calling is fine.
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