View Plans & Pricing

If you are signed in and are seeing this message, please be sure you have selected a user name in My Profile. The forum requires it.
A A A
Search

— Forum Scope —




— Match —





— Forum Options —





Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters

Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 (0 votes) 
sp_TopicIcon
Two pair counterfeited on river
Maples
Guppy
Members
Forum Posts: 1
Member Since:
February 28, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
1
March 3, 2014 - 2:35 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

My first post here, have been enjoying the videos.
 

Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t500/t1000 Blinds + t125 – 9 players – View hand 2444097

TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

SB: BB = 17.7, t17694
BB: BB = 6.2, t6237
UTG: BB = 64.5, t64511
UTG+1: BB = 9.9, t9855
UTG+2: BB = 24.5, t24478
MP1: BB = 22.2, t22183
Hero (MP2): BB = 22.8, t22819
CO: BB = 9.0, t9049
BTN: BB = 19.0, t18975

Pre Flop: (t2625) Hero is MP2 with 6 of spades A of hearts
4 folds, Hero raises to t2000, 1 fold, BTN calls t2000, 2 folds

Flop: (t6625) A of spades 7 of clubs 6 of hearts (2 players)
Hero bets t3000, BTN calls t3000

Turn: (t12625) 9 of diamonds (2 players)
Hero bets t6000, BTN calls t6000

River: (t24625) 7 of diamonds (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t7000

 

I don't really have a good enough sample to say anything about villain but they don't seem crazy

So I only need to be right 18% of the time to call here but I'm not sure if I am. If I think about what he's calling the turn with, it's a lot of aces. Maybe an 8, but I doubt he has too many of those (88, 89s, K8s maybe? 78 got there). He could turn those into bluffs, but this is made less likely by the fact that this doesn't seem like a good place to bluff at all (is thinking like this exploitable?).

If he gets here with a larger pocket pair he's usually checking back. If he gets here with an A that I'm chopping with he's checking that back some too, but that's mostly just A8, flatting pre here with A5 or lower doesn't seem super common, even if suited. 

So I figure when he bets the river he has AT+ or better something like 90% of the time.

What's wrong with my line of thinking? Should I just call here incase he IS crazy? Am I missing something else?

Thanks!

Flicka12Bet
Grinding Micros
Members
Forum Posts: 53
Member Since:
February 27, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
2
March 4, 2014 - 5:41 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I would have probably bet a smaller blogger bet on the river. 3-5000 and if he then goes over the top you can re-evaluate and if he happens to have the AT or similar hand he will propably just call. Now that you check the river you gave him the change to bluff the river and you might end up folding the river with a better hand.

 

also I might have bet smaller on the turn 5k since A9  and A7 are easyly on his range. but the fact that he did not rerase on the turn also speaks on the favor of him having a AT, AJ, type of hand. He just wants to get to showdown. And You are showing strength so and the turn is also a scarecard anyone holding a set or top two pair since the straight is getting there.

 

Button basically pushes all in on the river once you let go of the hand or am i reading this correctly. At least I have noticed several times in the smaller tourneys I still get bluffed with all in river bets once a scare card comes on the river. But you never know…

SIGABA
California
High Stakes Shark
Members
Forum Posts: 201
Member Since:
January 20, 2014
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
3
March 5, 2014 - 10:28 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Feels to me like you are beat here.  I like a check fold.  I think you're reasoning is right.  Weaker aces you are chopping and he probably would have checked back.  Stronger aces I think are betting here.  I like a fold.  I like your bet sizing.

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
42 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)

Top Posters:

bennymacca: 2616

Foucault: 2067

folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133

praetor: 1033

theginger45: 924

P-aire 146: 832

Turbulence: 768

The Riceman: 731

duggs: 591

florianm1: 588

Newest Members:

Tillery999

sdmathis89

ne0x00

adrianvaida2525

Anteeater

Laggro

Forum Stats:

Groups: 4

Forums: 24

Topics: 12705

Posts: 75003

 

Member Stats:

Guest Posters: 1063

Members: 12008

Moderators: 2

Admins: 5

Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos

Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1