February 28, 2014
My first post here, have been enjoying the videos.
Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t500/t1000 Blinds + t125 – 9 players – View hand 2444097
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
SB: BB = 17.7, t17694
BB: BB = 6.2, t6237
UTG: BB = 64.5, t64511
UTG+1: BB = 9.9, t9855
UTG+2: BB = 24.5, t24478
MP1: BB = 22.2, t22183
Hero (MP2): BB = 22.8, t22819
CO: BB = 9.0, t9049
BTN: BB = 19.0, t18975
Pre Flop: (t2625) Hero is MP2 with 6 A
4 folds, Hero raises to t2000, 1 fold, BTN calls t2000, 2 folds
Flop: (t6625) A 7 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t3000, BTN calls t3000
Turn: (t12625) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t6000, BTN calls t6000
River: (t24625) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t7000
I don't really have a good enough sample to say anything about villain but they don't seem crazy
So I only need to be right 18% of the time to call here but I'm not sure if I am. If I think about what he's calling the turn with, it's a lot of aces. Maybe an 8, but I doubt he has too many of those (88, 89s, K8s maybe? 78 got there). He could turn those into bluffs, but this is made less likely by the fact that this doesn't seem like a good place to bluff at all (is thinking like this exploitable?).
If he gets here with a larger pocket pair he's usually checking back. If he gets here with an A that I'm chopping with he's checking that back some too, but that's mostly just A8, flatting pre here with A5 or lower doesn't seem super common, even if suited.
So I figure when he bets the river he has AT+ or better something like 90% of the time.
What's wrong with my line of thinking? Should I just call here incase he IS crazy? Am I missing something else?
Thanks!
February 27, 2014
I would have probably bet a smaller blogger bet on the river. 3-5000 and if he then goes over the top you can re-evaluate and if he happens to have the AT or similar hand he will propably just call. Now that you check the river you gave him the change to bluff the river and you might end up folding the river with a better hand.
also I might have bet smaller on the turn 5k since A9 and A7 are easyly on his range. but the fact that he did not rerase on the turn also speaks on the favor of him having a AT, AJ, type of hand. He just wants to get to showdown. And You are showing strength so and the turn is also a scarecard anyone holding a set or top two pair since the straight is getting there.
Button basically pushes all in on the river once you let go of the hand or am i reading this correctly. At least I have noticed several times in the smaller tourneys I still get bluffed with all in river bets once a scare card comes on the river. But you never know…
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