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March 4, 2014
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Here is the hand I played late in 5$ MTT where I decided to bluff with a weak pair. Here are some interesting facts about the hand: MP2 is 21/14 after 27 hands. He was pretty shortstacked and the very hand before I raised UTG with KQ and he shoved against my raise with 108s and won all in. No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t8000/t16000 Blinds + t2000 - 8 players MP1: t333189 MP2: t291920 CO: t141200 BTN: t487719 SB: t481528 Hero (BB): t428050 UTG: t2252050 UTG+1: t1327272 Pre Flop: (t40000) Hero is BB with 8
9
3 folds, MP2 raises to t32000, 3 folds, Hero calls t16000 Flop: (t88000) A
8
J
(2 players) Hero checks, MP2 checks Turn: (t88000) K
(2 players) Hero bets t50000, MP2 calls t50000 River: (t188000) 4
(2 players) Hero bets t344050 all in So my thoughts here were that he has some marginal hand or he is giving up since he didn't cbet the flop. However I deciced that my pair is pretty unlikely to win at showdown and wasn't sure that he will fold to one bet here so I decided to go with a 2 barrel bluff. What are your thoughts on that line?
September 5, 2013
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check the turn. The K isn't a very good barrel card and we have showdown value. We probably jam our strong Ax pre and we aren't value betting the weak ones. So the only value hands we could have are KJ or QT. Villains flop checkrange exists out alot of monsters and showdown value hands: AA,JJ,AJ,88,KK,KJ,QQ=3+3+9+3+3+9+6=36 combo's. only QQ and maybe KJ or folding. Don’t have time to do the math, but we need a pretty high % of folds to break even and I don’t think we are gonna make that.
March 26, 2013
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With MP2 and around 20bbs here I expect villain's raising range to be mainly bigger suited connectors, Axs and broadway type hands given a lot of folks shove small-mid pairs in these spots for 19-20bbs.
On the flop I can definitely see villain checking back a lot of hands including weak aces with showdown value.
Turn brings a K which I think strengthens villain's range and weakens yours versus his holdings therefore I would check and call a small bet but might even check/fold if he bets too big as we are beat a ton already by hands he would bet the turn with if we check to him. I don't see a turn bet working much here at all.
After calling more than half pot on turn I doubt villain is folding enough to make this shove work as the 4d changes nothing and does not enable you to rep a hand that you bet the turn with that got stronger on the river. I fully expect villain to call with any A or K plus maybe some Jx hands if he works out that your defending range is more likely middle connecting type hands (which is possible as a lot of players 3b reshove broadway hands, pairs and Ax hands in your spot).
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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What's your bluff target?
March 4, 2014
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Andrew, my bluffing target were hands like J10, QJ, J9, 99, 1010,KQ,QQ,810 maybe very weak aces like A2s,A3s,A5s,A6s. I thought that K on turn may pretty well scare those Jx type hands. Also I thought that my 2 barrel line looks pretty strong as there not a lot of draws on board except 109 or gutshots.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I don't completely hate it, but the problem is it's really hard for you to represent any strong hands here, because most of the strongest hands on this board – AA, JJ, 88, KK, AK, AJ – aren't in your preflop range, you'd be getting it all in with those most of the time. It's really only KJ, QT, and I guess maybe very occasionally A8, A4 or J8 that are in your range, and most of those you probably wouldn't just shove the river for 340k when there's only 180k in the pot. In fact, most of your value range here, whatever it was, it wouldn't make a lot of sense to jam it when the villain's range looks pretty capped.
So it's worth asking yourself before you make a bluff like this – sure, the villain's range might look fairly weak, but what does my range look like? Are there actually many strong hands that I would ever make this bet with? Because often a half-decent villain is going to be able to sniff out some of those bets that look like they could never logically be made for value.
In short, I think you have enough showdown value here to just check the turn and potentially call a smaller bet, but fold to a larger one. Villain can certainly be valuebetting a lot of weaker aces and some other value hands on the turn.
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