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November 21, 2013
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Villain is 23/10 with 100% cbet over almost 500 hands. He has a clue, has won a couple of the 10k dailys that run. Not sure how he views me, but I assume he knows Im not a total fish. I just moved to this table 2 orbits beforehand.
Aggr factor 2.37 on flop 3.43 on turn.
Fold to bet 21/41 on Flop . Check Raise Turn 0/6 .
I flatted him pre so I didnt have to get into a bloated pot with another big stack.
Check back turn for pot control? I dont put him on flush draw as I feel he would have bet flop or at least check raised. Check/call could be set or just a tiny piece he is trying to get to showdown. Now when he raises on turn I feel this is never a bluff, and Im almost never good. Thoughts?
$140/$280 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 19 04 2014 20:36:48 Tournament #252797 $10 + $1 - Table #3 (Real Money) Seat 4 is the button Total number of players : 8 Seat 1: MuckUrLife ( $35,341 ) Seat 2: PokerBoss ( $6,464 ) Seat 3: xhatchetx ( $5,623 ) Seat 4: Casbro72 ( $19,900 ) Seat 5: Mehawk ( $25,095 ) Seat 6: cmb564nj16 ( $10,270 ) Seat 9: mlh351 ( $13,597 ) Seat 10: Deuxexmachin ( $47,134 ) Deuxexmachin posts ante [$25] Mehawk posts ante [$25] Casbro72 posts ante [$25] cmb564nj16 posts ante [$25] MuckUrLife posts ante [$25] mlh351 posts ante [$25] xhatchetx posts ante [$25] PokerBoss posts ante [$25] Mehawk posts small blind [$140] cmb564nj16 posts big blind [$280]
** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to MuckUrLife [ Kh, As ] mlh351 folds Deuxexmachin raises [$725] MuckUrLife calls [$725] PokerBoss calls [$725] xhatchetx folds Casbro72 folds Mehawk folds cmb564nj16 folds
** Dealing flop ** [ Th, 3h, Ad ] Deuxexmachin checks MuckUrLife bets [$1,111] PokerBoss folds Deuxexmachin calls [$1,111]
** Dealing turn ** [ Kd ] Deuxexmachin checks MuckUrLife bets [$2,345] Deuxexmachin raises [$12,052]
????
April 15, 2014
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Initial reaction would be to yell and slam my desk. Horrible spot.
It's such a weird line for someone who cbets so often to c/c c/r, especially such a big raise ott. First thoughts:
-it feels like he's protecting something with a bet that size
-as you didn't 3bet pre he probably thinks that the K is unlikely to have improved your hand to AK, so he thinks KT gives him the best hand
-if he had total air, he would have cbet the ace high flop, so I don't think the turn can be a total bluff
-AQ/AJ are probably flatting the turn with straight outs, and assuming that they're not behind very often
-he's ahead with AA/KK/TT/33/QJ, all of which he may play like this (24 hands). There are 6 AT hands he might be raising for value, and 6 KT combos, which would make the flop check make a little more sense. You've got about 48% equity against that range.
-Adding in A8-A5hh and a few heart connectors doesn't add that much equity, taking you up to about 50%.
This is horrible. The more I think about it, he'd probably cbet QJ here, which makes up 1/3 of the total range I've given him, and probably balances out the fact that he's more likely to flat than raise ott with draws. So much of it comes down to how you read the massive raise, so I'd like to hear other people's opinions.
In game with 30 seconds to act, I think I'd get it in. Having done the analysis, and knowing it's probably about 50:50, and with such a big stack, I think folding is your best bet.
September 5, 2013
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There is only 1 combo of AA, one combo of KK and I really doubt QJo is in villains open range with this stats.
I assume villain cbets QJhh, TT and 33 because it doens't make alot of sense to check on a drawy board with 2 people behind. So I think we are only beat by AA,KK and maybe some QJ combo's.
I also doubt villain would use this sizing with the nuts so I would def call the turn ( we don't want villain to fold his bluffs and we are only getting called by better hands) and probably only fold on a diamond river
April 15, 2014
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Based on those ranges, if we cut QJ/TT/33 that leaves 2 combos that beat us (assuming he cbets QJss and doesn't play QJ), and 6 AT combos we're ahead of. In that case surely we should be raising for value/to charge his draws. If he doesn't open QJo which other bluffs can there be in his range? Surely he's not doing this with 77-99/KQ? And if he's fallen in love with AQ/AJ we should be happy to raise.
I hate making judgements based on VPIP/PFR (I don't, I do it all the time…), but 24/10 in an $11 suggests he's hardly the nuts. He's got a big stack, and I really don't think we can a) cut QJo out of his range or b) know that he'll cbet with all his QJ/TT/33 like we assume he would.
Additionally, if we fold all diamond rivers, which hands are we assuming he's hit with? Axss and KQss? If we have enough equity to call other rivers, and think he could be bluffing the turn, surely we'd have to call even a pot sized bet? There really aren't that many DD combos that would change anything if you're assigning a tight opening range.
January 15, 2013
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Having played with Brian a lot, I think he really only has two possible hands here; A-K or a set. I think that, with your stack size I would live to fight another day rthat guessing whether you are tied or way behind here for all your chips.
The table dynamic also factors into my decision here, most of these players are shorter stacked and far weaker players than Brian, so there will be plenty of oppotunities for chips without tangling with only player who can eliminate you at your table.
June 11, 2012
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so a villain who normally (500hands) plays ABC poker is playing a different line.
this is a monster.
snap fold and move on to the next hand.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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pckrrr said:
There is only 1 combo of AA, one combo of KK and I really doubt QJo is in villains open range with this stats.
I assume villain cbets QJhh, TT and 33 because it doens't make alot of sense to check on a drawy board with 2 people behind. So I think we are only beat by AA,KK and maybe some QJ combo's.
I also doubt villain would use this sizing with the nuts so I would def call the turn ( we don't want villain to fold his bluffs and we are only getting called by better hands) and probably only fold on a diamond river
You're only doing half the work here. You talk about why it's hard for Villain to have a monster, but it's also hard for him to have a bluff or a marginal hand. But he has to have something!
The real question is which type of unlikely hand is most likely.
March 21, 2014
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I'm gonna try to take a stab at this. Bear with me when I whiff this completely. But I suspect him having either 3's or T's.
Someone who cbets 100% would cbet the A high flop to rep the A unless he has something he wants to trap with, hoping that anyone else hit the board.
When the K hits on the turn he probably is thinking that he's still good, eventho you might have QJ but puts in a significant raise for when the river brings in a J or Q. Which will make his decision on the river very hard if you 3-barrel.
On the other hand, his raise might be QJ putting more money in the pot for a river shove.
I really think that he's not repping air here, since you opened the betting on the flop into two others, 2-barreled where you could easily checked behind for pot control if you didn't have a monster yourself.
February 20, 2013
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I'm usually raising even nits pre unless there are chronic squeezers to trap behind. Certainly don't check the turn for pot control, you get unpaid/sucked out on way too much.
I rarely find this fold in game, but certainly like a fold after seeing the range arguments above. A villain with these stats is just not getting out of line or overvalueing hands on turn very often. This spot seems like a good argument for a HUD.
I'm not familiar with turn aggression normal numbers, his is a bit high, right?
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