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December 30, 2015
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No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$2.00+$2.00+$0.40
Blinds 50/100 9
UTG theknappstaa 8,500
UTG+1 mitiyy 5,593
MP1 Feltrin18 6,185
MP2 Fodinho 2,720
MP3 packman2777 2,990
CO Hero 5,047
D wiko777 2,895
SB Leandro A.37 3,052
BB jeanberris 2,990
9 240 Hero is CO 9 9
5 folds, Hero raises to 245, 1 fold, Leandro A.37 raises to 925, 1 fold, Hero calls 680
2 2,040 J J T
Leandro A.37 bets 1,020, Hero goes all-in 4,112
Pre-flop: I decided that if there was no A, K or Q on the flop that I would evaluate a shove. Perhaps I should have folded but since this is early in a turbo bounty tourney I decided to take the high variance shot. I felt my stack could absorb the PF call at least.
On the flop: I felt this was a good flop for me. I can’t read toooo much in to his bet size, but I let it skew my thinking towards a call, thinking QQ+ or a J might bet a little smaller or check to trap on this board. QQ+ might be a little worried I have a J, but I’m not sure how an average player would be affected by this fear with such a big pot…maybe bet/fold or check? I don’t think anyone is flatting AA or KK PF in this tourney though. Too much action.
In the moment when I clicked all-in my final thinking was that I’m sticking to my plan for better or worse…once I call the flop I have to follow through and I’m just hoping they don’t have QQ+
December 30, 2015
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I forgot to mention that I didn’t think there were many Js in V’s range so I felt this might give me a little fold equity too, but I doubt anyone is folding QQ+ to me here.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I agree with folding pre-flop, and I don’t know what it means to say that your stack can “absorb” the loss. Just because you have a lot of chips doesn’t mean that you should deliberately invest them in -EV spots. I also think, as you seem to acknowledge, that this a very poor hand/spot for bluffing after the flop. Have you seen my series on Bluffing?
December 30, 2015
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The comment about my stack being able to absorb it was my way of saying that if I call and have to fold the flop I wouldn’t be totally crippled. I wasn’t set mining though. I was planning to continue on a lot of flops depending on texture.
What is most telling to me is, as I type various thoughts here is that every argument I think though I find a counter thought. In the end I think I am thinking way too hard (bad creativity leveled me) and I am just not getting a price to call preflop.
I did some equity simulations and could just about make my play break even, with the bounty (2k chips), but I still don’t like it for the variance and part of the range means V calls with a (marginally) worse hand on the flop (see results below). I am sort of manufacturing the odds with my PF play. Say he sees the flop and then folds AQ, AK, I actually killed a lot of my PF value even more and exposed myself to better hands calling.
I hope none of this sounds defensive. I actually don’t like my play at all, mostly because it is high variance and I could have just shoved preflop and got the same result. If I wasn’t prepared to do that I probably should have just folded. In fact, the reason I put V on a tight range is because he 3-bet not-all-in, which seemed stronger to me…which means I probably shouldn’t be shoving anyway, if I go with that read… which I did.
Results: I got lucky and caught the right side of variance. Not only did V have AQ for the bottom of the range I was hoping for, he called, and it looks like he was right to do so since the board actually gave him more outs:
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 54.20% | 1,226,016 | 20,736 |
| AQ | 45.80% | 1,034,208 | 20,736 |
December 30, 2015
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Foucault said
…Have you seen my series on Bluffing?
Not yet. It is right at the top of my list. Nate bumped you with his new series, heh. I’m in WSoP-fantasy-mode 😉
June 2, 2013
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I am not sure I like the call here, because puts you on weird pot on the flop, V is 30bb deep and 3bet oop, pot on flop is 2040 and V have 2127 behind, if he cbet he is comitted, if he checks is scary as hell lol, if he shoves, even on low board usually have high cards to hit.
To 4bet pre flop I am not sure V calls with worst, I think need read on V.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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This is a weird spot. I’m not much of a fan of the call preflop, but on the flop you’re sort of in a spot where if you do think villain’s range is weighted towards AQ/AK preflop you might actually have enough equity to get it in profitably, since villain is very unlikely to bet that sizing and then fold. I don’t like the idea of flatting the 3-bet with a specific plan postflop – there are a lot of different flops that could ruin that plan, and I think one of the most common mistakes weak players make is calling preflop with the intention of doing a specific thing postflop. You can’t possibly know in advance that that’s the right play, so treat the decisions separately.
Generally I think there’s a lot of fuzzy logic in your thinking, that’s the main obstacle here. You’re not clearly evaluating villain’s range of hands and making an informed play based on that. You’re considering a few possibilities but mostly clouding them with expectations of what the villain’s specific train of thought might be – that’s a step too far. Trying to anticipate things like fear on the part of your opponent is an emotional evaluation that we want to stay away from – after all, you have no idea who your opponent is and attributing actions down to fear on their part is a big assumption.
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