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March 1, 2015
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No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$6.82+$0.68
Blinds 20/40 9
UTG Islanderko 3,096
UTG+1 gowav 3,000
MP1 Hero 6,852
MP2 Donatas.l 3,484
MP3 Touran2006 2,855
CO Boxer 645 5,085
D Old rangifer 5,187
SB Owl4Ever 3,138
BB 2KicsiHod 3,178
9 60 Hero is MP1 T T
1 fold, gowav raises to 80, Hero raises to 200, 3 folds, Old rangifer calls 200, 2 folds, gowav calls 120
3 660 J T 9
gowav checks, Hero bets 277, Old rangifer calls 277, gowav calls 277
3 1,491 Q
gowav checks, Hero checks, Old rangifer bets 745, gowav folds, Hero calls 745
2 2,981 2
Hero checks, Old rangifer bets 1,490, Hero folds
Old rangifer wins 4,471 (net +1,759)
gowav lost 477
Hero lost 1,222
I had no reads on villain, can we call turn or should we fold, this brought up an interesting conversation in the Skype group and they ased me to post it in here to get some more feedback.
June 11, 2012
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i dont like the 3bet pre. our hand is way too good to 3bet/fold and way too weak to 3bet/gii pre for this amount of chips.
with no reads vs a pretty tight EP range we should have a very narrow 3betting range here pre ante. 3betting TT+ here for value i assume you are prob also 3betting AQs+ and AKo as value. So you have 50value combos which are extremely hard to balance with bluffs in this spot
to assess postflop better it would be interesting to see how Old rangifer bets doubled his stack in the first hands as this can give us some indication about his tendencies.
normally i woulds say his range is 88-QQ, AJs+,AQo+, KQ,KJs,KTs, QJs, JTs
Flop he might call 88, he def would raise all his sets and two pairs for value and can balance that with some backdoor FDs which are post pair+ or straight draw+. He should flat KQs as he has the board locked possibly floats with AKs(AQs/AJs) sometimes as the board should not hit a standard 3betting range in this spot too hard and he is IP.
turn is a card that should improve our range (AK) more than his range so him continue betting seem to indicate some strength plus i dont think vs that sizing we can profitably call turn to try catch up as we are oop and if we hit our boat we need to check a lot and then villain checks back a lot of straights.
river we are not really blocking any of his value hands other than KT. vs a thinking opponent i could see myself calling with AQss exactly on the river as we are blocking both AK and KQ and are not blocking any of the backdoor FDs he might float
if i get into this situation i am 50:50 between betting flop (btw i really like your sizing) and c/c flop. Turn is c/f vs this sizing. IF we think villain can bluff turn often enough than so that we can profitably call then i would say we also have to call on such a brick on the river
March 1, 2015
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Florianm1
cheers for the input some great explanations there, would you be interested in joining the skype group would be great to get some more people in there with the thought process like yours.
regards
barra2088
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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florianm1 said
i dont like the 3bet pre. our hand is way too good to 3bet/fold and way too weak to 3bet/gii pre for this amount of chips.with no reads vs a pretty tight EP range we should have a very narrow 3betting range here pre ante. 3betting TT+ here for value i assume you are prob also 3betting AQs+ and AKo as value. So you have 50value combos which are extremely hard to balance with bluffs in this spot
I agree this is too wide to 3B EP pre-ante, but I don’t agree with the way you’re thinking about balancing the 3b range. A very tight range of {AKo,KK+}, for instance, is reasonably balanced. Villain gets a lot of trivial folds on A- and K- high boards, but otherwise, his top pair/overpair hands can be made roughly indifferent to calling down against this range. Pre-flop, hands don’t necessarily break so easily into “value bets” and “bluffs”.
He should flat KQs as he has the board locked possibly floats with AKs(AQs/AJs) sometimes as the board should not hit a standard 3betting range in this spot too hard and he is IP.
Just because he has the nuts doesn’t mean he has the board locked. In fact one of the nice things about straights is that they don’t often block second-best hands. I mean, he could certainly raise KQ here looking to get value from sets, two-pair, pair+draw, and lower straights, and his blocker effect on that range is minimal. I actually think there’s more of a case for flatting JJ than KQ.
turn is a card that should improve our range (AK) more than his range so him continue betting seem to indicate some strength plus i dont think vs that sizing we can profitably call turn to try catch up as we are oop and if we hit our boat we need to check a lot and then villain checks back a lot of straights.
Just because you check-called turn doesn’t mean you have to check river. It does make it harder to get a bet paid off, but I’d argue that betting out when you boat up would be better than checking.
IF we think villain can bluff turn often enough than so that we can profitably call then i would say we also have to call on such a brick on the river
Not sure I follow this either. Are you saying you wouldn’t have a range for check-call turn, check-fold this river?
January 3, 2014
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So I am in this Skypegroup and we have discussed this hand all day. To sum it up. I get crazy of this hand…
I did get Flopzilla (I have only worked with it in group study before, not using it myself so there might be errors on my thinking and use of software here)
But ok, my thinking and use of the software is that I put him on a pretty large range to start with as he is on the button. I did scale back his range street by street depending on the action and took out hands I don’t think he bets, because he take them to showdown for cheap. I also did leave most of the 2 pairs in, my thinking is that he have a merged range here and sometimes valuebet / blocker bets 2 pair, and sometimes bluff with them, in thinking he valuebet / blocker with them. (Here my thinking might be way off and I can maybe compensate for this in the software somehow)
I end up with something like the picture
Click for picture
What is very interesting to me is that our hand still plays very well vs this range. Also, we are facing a bet of 1490 into a pot of 2981.
We are getting 3 to 1 on the call and 3:1 = 25% equity needed to make the call, and we got that.
So is this a call?
It surprise me if we really do this good vs his range.
I must have done something wrong?
Input please…
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Mike,
I think the problem is that you’re assuming he would bet 2-pair on the turn/river. If you put those hands into his range, I’m not surprised that Hero has enough equity to call, but I don’t think those belong in there.
January 3, 2014
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I agree Andrew,
This was my main issue when the discussion came up and I will just copy paste what I wrote in the Skypegroup chat.
ok, so if we assume we are always behind, but 100% good when we hit.
and we did count for 10 outs so that is 20% chance to improve.
We have to call 745 to win 2981. 745/2981 = 24.99%
so we pay 745, out of 5 times we gonna hit 1 and loose 4
745*4 = 2980 we invest.
1 time we gonna hit and we assume we are always 100% good when we do, we stack him for 3965
So we gain 985 by calling, but the times we hit & he got a better hand he stacks us for 3965
is this worth vs the times we don’t improve and the times he might have nothing and fold when we hit?
also, the times we do hit, do we get paid?
June 11, 2012
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Foucault said
florianm1 said
i dont like the 3bet pre. our hand is way too good to 3bet/fold and way too weak to 3bet/gii pre for this amount of chips.with no reads vs a pretty tight EP range we should have a very narrow 3betting range here pre ante. 3betting TT+ here for value i assume you are prob also 3betting AQs+ and AKo as value. So you have 50value combos which are extremely hard to balance with bluffs in this spot
I agree this is too wide to 3B EP pre-ante, but I don’t agree with the way you’re thinking about balancing the 3b range. A very tight range of {AKo,KK+}, for instance, is reasonably balanced. Villain gets a lot of trivial folds on A- and K- high boards, but otherwise, his top pair/overpair hands can be made roughly indifferent to calling down against this range. Pre-flop, hands don’t necessarily break so easily into “value bets” and “bluffs”.
well then lets say with such a big 3betting range we are having a hard time to defend correct vs 4bets
He should flat KQs as he has the board locked possibly floats with AKs(AQs/AJs) sometimes as the board should not hit a standard 3betting range in this spot too hard and he is IP.
Just because he has the nuts doesn’t mean he has the board locked. In fact one of the nice things about straights is that they don’t often block second-best hands. I mean, he could certainly raise KQ here looking to get value from sets, two-pair, pair+draw, and lower straights, and his blocker effect on that range is minimal. I actually think there’s more of a case for flatting JJ than KQ.
maybe i should have added an almost locked 😀
turn is a card that should improve our range (AK) more than his range so him continue betting seem to indicate some strength plus i dont think vs that sizing we can profitably call turn to try catch up as we are oop and if we hit our boat we need to check a lot and then villain checks back a lot of straights.
Just because you check-called turn doesn’t mean you have to check river. It does make it harder to get a bet paid off, but I’d argue that betting out when you boat up would be better than checking.
maybe yes we have to lead river.
IF we think villain can bluff turn often enough than so that we can profitably call then i would say we also have to call on such a brick on the river
Not sure I follow this either. Are you saying you wouldn’t have a range for check-call turn, check-fold this river?
no thats not what i am saying. we can have a c/c range turn and fold river
January 3, 2014
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Ok, I’m not sure if people understand my 2nd answer, so I will try to make it more clear. I play from the turn here.
The Skypechat did assume he had a wide range. My assumption is that we are always behind when he bet the turn and he will never bet anything worse than a straight.
“ok, so if we assume we are always behind, but 100% good when we hit. “
This makes his range be straights, and that range looks like this.
To improve to a full house or quads we have 10 outs. J=3, T=1, 9=3, Q=3, a total of 10.
Risk and reward.
We risk (745) to win the risk (745) + the reward /pot (1491) = 745 to win 2981.
745/2981 = 0.2499 or 25%
We have 20% chance to hit and we need 25% to make the play profitable.
“so we pay 745, out of 5 times we gonna hit 1 and loose 4
745*4 = 2980 we invest.
1 time we gonna hit and we assume we are always 100% good when we do, we stack him for 3965
So we gain 985 by calling, but the times we hit & he got a better hand he stacks us for 3965″
Ok, I’ll try to explain this better. The 1 time we do hit our 10 outs, 20% of the time, we stack him, and that time we gain 985
3965 from his stack the 1 time out of 5 we hit minus 2980 for the 4 times we miss = +985.
“is this worth vs the times we don’t improve and the times he might have nothing and fold when we hit?
also, the times we do hit, do we get paid?”
The last question is my main problem. If we assume he never have QQ, JJ, or 99 in his range, he never bet those on the turn so the are not in his range, correct or wrong? – If they are in, we have the chance to make a 2nd best hand, but for now. They are not in his range.
We will always make the best hand, and never get a second best hand.
The problem is, he might not 100% pay us with a straight on a river bet.
What I don’t get and need help with is this…
When we hit, when he got a straight, I’m not convinced we can get more value out of him. If we can’t it’s a loosing play, our play is only with profit if we can get more value out of him.
How often will we need to get payed, and be able to extract more value out of him to make the play worth it?
This is where I struggle
June 11, 2012
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Nervous Mike said
Ok, I’m not sure if people understand my 2nd answer, so I will try to make it more clear. I play from the turn here.The Skypechat did assume he had a wide range. My assumption is that we are always behind when he bet the turn and he will never bet anything worse than a straight.
“ok, so if we assume we are always behind, but 100% good when we hit. “
This makes his range be straights, and that range looks like this.
To improve to a full house or quads we have 10 outs. J=3, T=1, 9=3, Q=3, a total of 10.
Risk and reward.
We risk (745) to win the risk (745) + the reward /pot (1491) = 745 to win 2981.745/2981 = 0.2499 or 25%
We have 20% chance to hit and we need 25% to make the play profitable.
“so we pay 745, out of 5 times we gonna hit 1 and loose 4
745*4 = 2980 we invest.
1 time we gonna hit and we assume we are always 100% good when we do, we stack him for 3965
So we gain 985 by calling, but the times we hit & he got a better hand he stacks us for 3965″Ok, I’ll try to explain this better. The 1 time we do hit our 10 outs, 20% of the time, we stack him, and that time we gain 985
3965 from his stack the 1 time out of 5 we hit minus 2980 for the 4 times we miss = +985.“is this worth vs the times we don’t improve and the times he might have nothing and fold when we hit?
also, the times we do hit, do we get paid?”The last question is my main problem. If we assume he never have QQ, JJ, or 99 in his range, he never bet those on the turn so the are not in his range, correct or wrong? – If they are in, we have the chance to make a 2nd best hand, but for now. They are not in his range.
We will always make the best hand, and never get a second best hand.
The problem is, he might not 100% pay us with a straight on a river bet.What I don’t get and need help with is this…
When we hit, when he got a straight, I’m not convinced we can get more value out of him. If we can’t it’s a loosing play, our play is only with profit if we can get more value out of him.
How often will we need to get payed, and be able to extract more value out of him to make the play worth it?
This is where I struggle
Nervous Mike said
Ok, I’m not sure if people understand my 2nd answer, so I will try to make it more clear. I play from the turn here.The Skypechat did assume he had a wide range. My assumption is that we are always behind when he bet the turn and he will never bet anything worse than a straight.
“ok, so if we assume we are always behind, but 100% good when we hit. “
This makes his range be straights, and that range looks like this.
To improve to a full house or quads we have 10 outs. J=3, T=1, 9=3, Q=3, a total of 10.
Risk and reward.
We risk (745) to win the risk (745) + the reward /pot (1491) = 745 to win 2981.745/2981 = 0.2499 or 25%
We have 20% chance to hit and we need 25% to make the play profitable.
“so we pay 745, out of 5 times we gonna hit 1 and loose 4
745*4 = 2980 we invest.
1 time we gonna hit and we assume we are always 100% good when we do, we stack him for 3965
So we gain 985 by calling, but the times we hit & he got a better hand he stacks us for 3965″Ok, I’ll try to explain this better. The 1 time we do hit our 10 outs, 20% of the time, we stack him, and that time we gain 985
3965 from his stack the 1 time out of 5 we hit minus 2980 for the 4 times we miss = +985.“is this worth vs the times we don’t improve and the times he might have nothing and fold when we hit?
also, the times we do hit, do we get paid?”The last question is my main problem. If we assume he never have QQ, JJ, or 99 in his range, he never bet those on the turn so the are not in his range, correct or wrong? – If they are in, we have the chance to make a 2nd best hand, but for now. They are not in his range.
We will always make the best hand, and never get a second best hand.
The problem is, he might not 100% pay us with a straight on a river bet.What I don’t get and need help with is this…
When we hit, when he got a straight, I’m not convinced we can get more value out of him. If we can’t it’s a loosing play, our play is only with profit if we can get more value out of him.
How often will we need to get payed, and be able to extract more value out of him to make the play worth it?
This is where I struggle
you basicallly just explaiend the problem of implied odds and reverse implied odds 😀
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