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April 6, 2015
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Full Tilt, $2 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. SB: 24,905 (31.1 bb) Hero (BB): 26,499 (33.1 bb) UTG: 5,625 (7 bb) MP: 33,669 (42.1 bb) CO: 25,485 (31.9 bb) BTN: 8,652 (10.8 bb) Preflop: Hero is BB with TT
3 folds, BTN raises to 8,552 and is all-in, SB calls 8,152, Hero ???
On the stone cold bubble for an FT rebuy. 18 pay and 19 remaining. I have 33bb and am around 8th I think. The button shoves 11bb. This is my second hand at the table so no reads. The SB has 31bb and flats, putting in a third of his stack. I am in the big blind with TT. If I shove, I assume the SB is calling. If I win the hand I will be in 2nd at the final two tables. If I lose I have 2bb.
February 20, 2015
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I think you have to shove here. Let them worry about the bubble.
The reason you fold is for ICM reasons. So the question then would be whether ICM should come into play here. Maybe if it were the 6-max WSOP bracelet event. But a $2 tournament I'd put myself in a position to win the whole thing.
June 23, 2012
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So what is the SB up to here? That's the real question. Two scenarios spring to mind.
1. He has a monster, let's say QQ+, and is trapping.
2. He has a hand that he knows is likely to be ahead of the BTN, but isn't good enough (in his mind) to get it in. Say, A5-AT, KQ, smaller pairs.
So, scenario 1, we're crushed. Scenario 2, we're crushing (plus we have more fold equity than you might be assuming). We have no reads to help us out so really it comes down to probabilities. Here follows a rigourous mathematical analysis – hold on to your seats! 😉
How many players are likely to trap as in scenario 1? Answer: quite a lot. How many combinations of trapping hands are there that they will play in this way? Answer: not very many.
How many palyers play medium strength hands as in scenario 2? Answer: more than you might think. How many combinations of medium strength hands will they play this way? Answer: lots.
So, how often are we crushed? Answer: (quite a lot) x (not very many) = not too often
And how often are we crushing? Answer: (more than you might think) x (lots) = a decent amount
So, seems like a clear shove to me.
As an added bonus, the times we are crushed, the BTN is usually also crushed. So we'll often make it into the money even when we lose.
emb
November 24, 2013
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joelshitshow said:
I think you have to shove here. Let them worry about the bubble.
The reason you fold is for ICM reasons. So the question then would be whether ICM should come into play here. Maybe if it were the 6-max WSOP bracelet event. But a $2 tournament I'd put myself in a position to win the whole thing.
The math doesnt change whether its a 2$ or a 10k$ buyin. Its a marginal spot I dont mind a fold but I would probably shove. Yes SB could be trapping but on the exact bubble its more likely that he's scared and you get a good amount of folds if you stick it in.
February 20, 2015
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The math doesn't change, but personal goals do. A min cash in a $10K event is life-changing for a small-stakes player who satellited his way in. Even if it doesn't change the way hero plays, it can change the way villain does.
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