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May 30, 2012
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3 hands into the final table. I had played with villain earlier in the tournament for a few orbits but no real reads at this table yet other than hes a solid reg. His stats are 20/19 wi 13% 3b over 185 hands.
I felt like he can be 3 betting pretty wide here seeing as im opening from the CO and how stacks are set up. What is best option? I havent played with this guy so much but know he is a good thinking player, rly wasnt sure how often hes gna be 5 betting me tho in spots like this. Or if I should just jam it in his face, with having no solid read as to wether hes gna be trying to icm **** me im unsure whats gonna be best option.
Payouts:
1st $4314
2nd $2696
3rd $2022
4th $1527
5th $1168
6th $808
7th $557
8th $323
9th $323
Full Tilt Poker $12,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t4000/t8000 Blinds + t1000 – 9 players – View hand 2127496
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MP1: BB = 28.6, t228983
MP2: BB = 13.3, t106788
guitey (CO): BB = 44.8, t358335
BTN: BB = 53.4, t427526
SB: BB = 46.5, t372399
BB: BB = 17.4, t139491
UTG: BB = 36.5, t292388
UTG+1: BB = 23.1, t184790
UTG+2: BB = 17.0, t136300
Pre Flop: (t21000) guitey is CO with T
T
5 folds, guitey raises to t18000, 1 fold, SB raises to t47880, 1 fold, guitey ???
13% 3 bet is really high, and u can tell by his stats that he is more than likely a solid, aggresive reg. Having said that, you are in a weird spot here based on stacks. 1010 shits on his 3 bet range, and we have 44 bbs to start the hand.
Ok…..
been thinking for 10 min…….
fck it, im 4 bet ripping 44 bigs here with 1010
Here is my reasoning..
Villain is super agg, so the chances we are crushed(aka jj+) are slim imo.
If we 4 bet we open up a sick ICM 5 bet fckage spot on his part. I would rather take it away from him. ICM may say to flat here and play 1010 in position which is a decent option. I know 44 bigs is so much to rip but i just hate 4 bet fold against an agg reg. When he has hands like aj,aq, and ak he is usually folding based on ICM.
Im sure everyone is going to hate 4 bet stuffy, but against the opponent i would rather take the 5 bet away.
Flatting is a close second for me, but seems a lil nitty.
4bet fold….
we could make it 85k adn fold to 5 bet, but against a 20/18/13% im not sure i am a huge fan.
4 bet call is an option, but 4 bet inducing 1010 is kinda mehhhhh
curious to see all the replies, thanks for the post!
AZN
May 30, 2012
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marc, you basically posted my thinking during the hand 🙂
I didnt mention flat in my OP but obv wondering if that is an option here we could use?
I will get around to running some calcs for this hand vs diff ranges etc at some point the next day or so. I thought it is an interesting spot, which is why I posted.
Look forward to seeing some more replies.
October 22, 2012
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earlier in the tourney (i mean not on the ft) i have no problem 4b shoving against an agg villain like this.
but on a ft with 3rd in chips i definetly prefer flatting in position and take it from there.
is it really nitty?
June 22, 2012
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badabing..i dont think your opinion is nitty and i would tend to flat more here myself but I think having the balls to make these moves like Marc suggested late in tournaments against villans such as the one described is what often determines finishing the tournament on top.
I think there is for sure strong arguments for both plays but this guy is obv aggro reg and most often we are crushing his range.
I think I need to mix more of these plays like marc suggested into my game late.
May 31, 2012
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I like 4 betting to around 88k and folding to a shove. His range for shoving at FT against 3rd in chips has to be tight JJ+,AQs+,AK. I know his stats are 20/19 13% 3bet but most of these stats could be from middle stages of play picking up chips. This is the 3rd hand of the FT with plenty of short stacks, I don’t think he’ll be willing to dust it off this quick. If you have to fold, we still would have 33bb’s for 4th in chips, not too bad IMO. This is coming from a fish tho, so take it for what it’s worth…..hahaha
June 22, 2012
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I like your point on this as well Take. Its a great hand to discuss with the final table dynamic. 4k is a nice score for any reg.
June 26, 2012
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There can be no flat with this as more than 50% of the time an over comes and makes life really hard. Rip it or fold. I lean toward a rip because he may just be trying to own you. Flipping against overs. Comes down to how you feel your chances are seeing more hands against this exact table. Meaning position on some guys and out of position on some. Mostly if this guy has position on you and will be 3betting you silly time to get it in. I am not a real good player but jamming it in his eye would be what i do. Not super excited but there it is.
June 11, 2012
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very interesting hand.
so we described villain as a very good aggressive reg. so if we flat here our hand is pretty face up and we have a hard time postflop vs him as he will barrel at least twice on a lots of flops and turns. and if he is really, really good he even triple barrels most of the boards making our life very painfull
we can only counteract this if we also flat with our monsters such as AA,KK,QQ,AK
2nd option is to 4bet pile. First it seems bit big but if we have a closer look you will see that we only pile about 4times the pot which is really not that big.
also jamming puts the pressure back at him and puts him into the ICM spot as said by mark.
i dont like the fact of 4b/f vs a good reg. because in that spot he can easily pile hands like KJ,KQ,AJ because he knows how ICM f..cked we are here.
so for me its a clear “this time not Johnny, in ya face spot” to pile.
FYI: I also pile AA-88, Axs, A8o+,JTs+,KJo+,T9s,87s,T8s,97s
cheers
July 3, 2010
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High 3 bet % but from what positions has he been 3 betting? Sometimes that can be deceiving when you realize they've all been from CO or Button.
With 3 < 20 bb stacks at the table I'm not sure how out of line he'll get. Almost every reg plays a FT pretty fit or fold/straightforward in the beginning.
I think his 3 bet is heavily weighted toward big value hands and jamming feels like a huge amount of spew to me and lets villain call or fold perfectly vs. us.
May 30, 2012
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FkCoolers said:
High 3 bet % but from what positions has he been 3 betting? Sometimes that can be deceiving when you realize they’ve all been from CO or Button.
With 3 < 20 bb stacks at the table I’m not sure how out of line he’ll get. Almost every reg plays a FT pretty fit or fold/straightforward in the beginning.
I think his 3 bet is heavily weighted toward big value hands and jamming feels like a huge amount of spew to me and lets villain call or fold perfectly vs. us.
Very strongly agree with this, Im completely ok with folding (if you arent comfortable playing a 3bet pot IP), but id probably flat in game, either of which is going to be much more preferable than 4bet jamming imo, you are so crushed when called and i dont think that the chips gained outweigh the risk of elimination in this spot
Folding is horrible and shouldn't even be an option tbh. I'm still unsure what line i feel is the best between flatting, ripping, and 4 bet folding. 13% 3 bet whether it be pre ante or post is definitely on the higher side of the spectrum. Having said that, we can come to the conclusion that villain is 100% on the agg'er side of things. I understand that ripping 40+ bbs seems spewy, but we are gaining roughly 80k which is a huge amount of chips at this stage of the tournament. When we just 4 bet, we open the gates for him to 5 bet rip and just abuse ICM. Thats why i would shove, we take the play from him. I understand, when he has the nuts we just lit money on fire but we will still have 20% equity. Gaining chips and showing the other big stack your not ****ing around both have massive value at an FT.
Im not trying to come in here and say im right and everyone is wrong, that would be stupid of me.
But saying every reg is pretty fit or fold with 3 <20bb stacks at the table seems absurd to me. In fact, I find that the really good regs are leveling the fck out of all of us to believe that. Why wouldn't we take advantage of the fact that good players are assuming we are playing strt forward because of the stacks? Seems genius to me to abuse this thought process. Meta game much?
“I think his 3 bet is heavily weighted toward big value hands and jamming feels like a huge amount of spew to me and lets villain call or fold perfectly vs. us.”
WHYYYYY? We are the two biggest stacks at the table, and he is the aggest player on the table. Why is he weighted towards the nuts? cause he is OOP??? I dont understand why we should believe that a player who we believe to be a solid reg isn't going to abuse this situation.
I think its the opposite, i think his 3 bet is weighted towards air based on the situation and the stacks at the table. Maybe that means we 4 bet fold? IDK, again, i like taking the play away but 44 bigs is a lot.
I just couldn't disagree more that he has nutty hands here because I know 90% of regs are going to be light. Maybe 95%, especially regs with an overall 13% 3 bet.
Im lost…….
Again, there isn't a definitive answer here, but we need to get the facts right before we decide what the best play is going to be.
May 30, 2012
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given its the final table we can assume he played the final table bubble and maybe even the final 3 tables, which means that it will involve alot of short handed play.
I can understand why folding isnt ideal because of our hand strength, but 4b/f is pretty much the exact same thing unless you expect us to get 3b/c some appreciable amount of the time, if people are 4betting Jx/Qx/Kx/Ax here but 4betting 1010 its a weird hand selection. since 1010 has next to no blocker value its actually pretty similiar to doing it with ATC, so would you be 4betting here with ATC straight away every time?
being committed to calling off the BB should also tighten the SB 3betting range.
i mean i probably flat a pretty wide range here without even thinking, and 4b a bit of air and the nuts. I can see the value in 4bet jamming but its a bit of a zero play really.
even tho he calls with 3% of hands thats stil 25% of his 3betting range if he is 3betting us 12% of the time, and if we jam we run into a 80bb pot with flipping or crushed which is a disaster given stacks at this table.
but yea i flat and go from there, but i probably flat way too many hands in general
July 3, 2010
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So we're getting into a 90 bb effective pot pre with TT because we think, but aren't sure, he's capable of making a pretty big ICM leveling move? I just can't see that being the correct move here.
May 30, 2012
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Duggz, I wasnt at his table when we were short handed or FT bubble. Most of those hands I have on him are from other tournaments.
Ok ill try this ICM calc, let me know if any parts of this are wrong because im not 100% sure on this.
I used an online ICM calc for this
$EV now = $1926
$EV if we shove, get called and lose = $0
$EV if we shove, get called and win = $2720
$EV if we shove and he folds = $2052
Multiply the amount we win and lose by the probavility of winning or losing
giving him a 3b range of 13% and call off range of JJ+,AK
shove and win equity is +$794
shove and lose equity is – $1926
$794 x .337 – $1926 x .662
$267 – $1275
So our $EV when we shove and get called is -$1008.
shove and he folds is +$126
$126 x .75 = $94.5
So is it -$1008 + $94.5 = -$913.5?
May 30, 2012
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Or is it 75% of the time we win $94.5 and 25% of the time we lose $1008. so $94.5 x .75 - $1008 x .25 $70.875 - $252 = -$181.125
October 6, 2010
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I am with marc on this one.
A big stack 3bets a late position open out of the blinds and we auto-think its a monster? This is the perfect spot to 3bet any two, because, as marc said there are so many other shorter stacks.
I am not even close to being a good reg but i 3bet super wide against the other big stacks in this spot, because they never ever want to bust with so many shorties that are just waiting to level up a few spots before busting.
you do have to be careful to not let them put the pressure back on you though, which is why i love just overjamming here and taking the 5bet jam away from him.
as much as it sounds weird at first thought, i really love a jam here. villain is only calling off with JJ+, AK (3% calling range) if we shove it in his face, and this 3bet has so much air in it its not funny. i would estimate 10-15% 3bet here. which means he folds somewhere between 70-80% of the time here.
I am going to do the equity calc now, using these assumptions.
Villain calls our shove with JJ+, AK = 3.1% of hands
Villain 3bets 10.4% of hands, which is 88+, A9s+, KQs, 98s, 87s, 76s, ATo+, KQo (i tried to polarise it a bit)
that means villain folds roughly 70% of the time.
of the times he calls with JJ+, AK, we have 33% equity. which means we win around 10% of the time in total, and lose 20% of the time.
if we rip and he folds we win +8.5bb*.7= +5.95
if we rip he calls and we win 0.1*46.8 = +4.68
if we rip he calls and we lose 0.2*-44.8 = -8.96
so our overall EV is +1.7BB, and our risk of busto is 20%.
thoughts? I have been chatting to duggs about trying to estimate the EV of flatting but obviously it gets hard. my argument is you get into expensive guessing games when you flat, because the 3bettor is almost always firing flop and either turn/river or both and so it because really tough for you to play even though you are in position.
October 6, 2010
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btw i think a 10% 3bet is really really tight here for villain imo, could even be 20% quite easily
May 30, 2012
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and i think the 20% risk of busto costs us alot more in $ terms than 3.7bb gain relative to folding.
I like flatting since we can i think we can realise alot of our equity and he his 3bet value range can become really thin on alot of textures.
and if he ups to 20% 3bet i think flatting and having good equity v that 17% that doesnt crush us is going to be better than jamming forcing it to fold to pick up dead money.
February 18, 2013
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If we flat here then what do we do when he cbets on the flop most if the time, we’ve no idea where we are at really and have to call off yet another chunk of our stack trying to work it out, or shove and hope he folds. I prefer to fold or shove here and I don’t think either option is the end of the world based on other stacks at the table, there is still plenty of play left. I think I’d lean towards jamming it in his face so the next time I raise he may think twice about the 3 bet.
FkCoolers said:
So we're getting into a 90 bb effective pot pre with TT because we think, but aren't sure, he's capable of making a pretty big ICM leveling move? I just can't see that being the correct move here.
Like i said, im not sure what we should do here. My only pt, is giving him the nuts seems wrong imo.
I literaly and lost here tbh, i think this is a super sick spot
duggs said:
and i think the 20% risk of busto costs us alot more in $ terms than 3.7bb gain relative to folding.
I like flatting since we can i think we can realise alot of our equity and he his 3bet value range can become really thin on alot of textures.
and if he ups to 20% 3bet i think flatting and having good equity v that 17% that doesnt crush us is going to be better than jamming forcing it to fold to pick up dead money.
I agree, but impossible to determine the equity gained from 80k based on everyone else's stack. 80k give us more room to 3 bet fold, open more hands etc.
again, this is a tough hand
bennymacca said:
btw i think a 10% 3bet is really really tight here for villain imo, could even be 20% quite easily
THIS!!!!
a 13% overall 3 bet usually means that in this spot could be as high as 30.
I should have said this as this is an LP raise….
Another pt that everyone is making that i agree with is this.
We just aren't winning the pot enough when we do flat. Say it comes 9 high and he double barrels, we are in tough spot city.
Im not big on getting this many BBsin preflop, in any situation but it seems to be the only way we will be winning the pot .
Love talking hands guys and love all the opinions.
I may come off like i feel im always right, but i just want to get all the facts right.
Im only a yr deep in mtts, so all the posts really help.
coolers, so what are you doing in this spot?????? flatting?
May 30, 2012
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but marc, thats not a tough spot, thats an awesome spot to call down in, unless we have some reason to believe he is super fit/fold on flops or turns. I mean especially if we think he has a ton of air (because that air that makes our preflop jam viable doesnt just disappear), he either
a) shuts down way too much on the flop
b) shuts down way too much on the turn
c) has a relatively bluff heavy barreling range which we can call down on alot of boards.
Like being him too aggressive in this spot allows us to profitably bluff catch on textures where our equity is good and his value range is thin.
like for example a Kxxxx runnout where he triples, his value range is like AA/AK/KK/other random sets/maaaaaybe KQ is he is really good compared with a pretty wide air range, since alot of his value range that beats us wont bet 3 streets so we can call down.
one other thing i should ask is, is everyone ripping 22 here? 22-1010 have virtually the same equity here when called and neither have any blocker value. so if people are happy ripping 1010 here they should be happy ripping 22.
May 30, 2012
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frankly i was thinking about it and i would 4b/c before i 4b/f or 4bet jam. at least then we keep his range wide and have good equity in the pot.
June 11, 2012
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i did a lot of thinking about the current hand again and did play
around with some math.
1.) i think villain like this in this particular spot 3bets way more often then people said
i would say he 3bets like this: value range AA-TT,AKo,AKs (3%), bluff range: 55-22,AQo-A2o,KJo,KTo,QJo,JTo,T9o,AQs-A2s,K9s-K8s,QTs-Q9s,97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s (23.1%) which adds up to 26.1% if not even wider
2.) so as you can see this range is very poalrized and consists of much more hands he bluff 3bets then he value three bets
3.) if we pile he should not call looser then JJ+,AK (3.02%) due to ICM. meaning he folds 87% of the time he 3bets here and we pile the other 13% we have 33.6% equity
so the outcome of this are the following:
a) we pile he folds: we win his raise+the antes+theBB which adds up to 60880 this we win 87% of the time
EV=0.87*60880=52356.8= 6.5446BB +cEV
b) we pile he calls, we win: this occurs in 0.13*0.33=0.0429 casess and we win the antes+BB+a our stack which is 375335
EV= 0.0429*375335= 16101.8715= +2.0127BB +cEV
c) we pile, he calls, we loose: occurs 0.13*0.64= 0.0832 and we loose our full stack
EV=0.0832*358335=29813.472 = -3.726684BB
piling adds up to 6.5BB+2.01BB-3.70BB= 4.81BB
now lets see how our $EV is affected
our icm equity before the hand is 0.1404 of the 13738prize pool= 1928.81$
a) we pile, he folds our new icm equity is 0.1529= 2100.54$
b) we pile, he calls, we win: our ich equity will be 0.204 =2802.55$
c) we pile, he calls, we loose: we end up with 323$ loosing 1605.81$
so our icm equity of 4b/piling is: 0.87*0.1529+.0429*0.204-0.0832*0.1204= +0.131 which is 1810$. so our net gain of this play is -118.81$. it might be actually closer to BE as i did not change the stack sizes accordingly if we fold after we raise. which clearly changes things a bit but dont think too much.
i did a similar calculation with 4b/calling and it turned out to be bit more profitable in terms of cEV.
so we should either 4b/c or flat depending on how we range him post
P.S.: no guarantee that all the numbers are 100% correct
June 11, 2012
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duggs said:
but marc, thats not a tough spot, thats an awesome spot to call down in, unless we have some reason to believe he is super fit/fold on flops or turns. I mean especially if we think he has a ton of air (because that air that makes our preflop jam viable doesnt just disappear), he either
a) shuts down way too much on the flop
b) shuts down way too much on the turn
c) has a relatively bluff heavy barreling range which we can call down on alot of boards.
Like being him too aggressive in this spot allows us to profitably bluff catch on textures where our equity is good and his value range is thin.
like for example a Kxxxx runnout where he triples, his value range is like AA/AK/KK/other random sets/maaaaaybe KQ is he is really good compared with a pretty wide air range, since alot of his value range that beats us wont bet 3 streets so we can call down.
one other thing i should ask is, is everyone ripping 22 here? 22-1010 have virtually the same equity here when called and neither have any blocker value. so if people are happy ripping 1010 here they should be happy ripping 22.
i just put in my range from above into flopzilla and clicked a 100random boards. as his range is very Ax heavy due to blocker it seems we can happily call down on most boards not containing an A.
bah for some reason it stays in the quote section so i colored my answer
May 30, 2012
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might want to edit that it took me 3 tries to realise you didnt just quote me
July 3, 2010
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duggs said:
frankly i was thinking about it and i would 4b/c before i 4b/f or 4bet jam. at least then we keep his range wide and have good equity in the pot.
I keep thinking about this f'ng hand and I've been arriving at the same conclusion but I don't even know if it's the correct play.
Buy jamming we remove some of the flipping hands and maybe he folds JJ sometimes, but that's it. By 4b inducing we could keep all the flipping hands, but some hands we dominate (although this seldom occurs, I think).
March 9, 2013
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Interesting for me to see views on this hand re all the ICM calcs and maths, one of the reasons I have signed up.
Personally in this position i’m not keen on flatting, because as a previous poster has said even if the board is 9 high and you get bets on flop and turn you’re in a tricky position.
Based on the info that i’ve seen this player 3 bet a lot, I would always 4-bet. I’d be loathed to 4-bet fold and would probably 4-bet shove (that’s why i’m interested in the comments that this is a spewy play).
I’d do this because its a perfect spot for him to be stealing; even though its the final table i’m still more concerned with trying to get a big stack and podium finish; and finally I want to be setting the tone of the FT and not giving it up to an aggro reg i.e. shoving here tells him you won’t be pushed around which is great (until he calls with an overpair and your out…….)
March 8, 2013
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Given how difficult this spot is, with shoving -$ev even against a 26% 3bet range, would it be worth considering an open limp here, planning to 3b/f against a raise from button, flat a raise from villain, and get it in against BB?
This gives us the advantage of playing a smaller pot in position against the aggressive villain, giving us more room to call a few barrels on most flops, and giving us the chance to do the icm-screwing if the board comes in a manner that lets us turn our hand into a bluff.
If no one raises, we can just cbet small on most flops and take it down.
All the icm calculations make me think small pots are the way to go when dealing with the other big stacks in this spot.
November 19, 2012
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Trying to come up with a response to this hand. Been pacing my basement for literally about 1.5 hours trying to come to a decison. Will try and come up with something by tomorrow.
May 30, 2012
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guitey said:
“3 hands into the final table. I had played with villain earlier in the tournament for a few orbits but no real reads at this table yet other than hes a solid reg. His stats are 20/19 wi 13% 3b over 185 hands.”
My first thought was that you have 185 hands on him so he will have 185 hands of you. Any thoughts on his perception on you. I think this information would be a big factor in my actions.
May 30, 2012
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Im unsure of when the majority those hands were played against him. I dont remember being deep with him before . I assume he knows im a reg.
I like the idea of open limping now after marckonkle brings it up. Def a tricky spot.
May 30, 2012
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Before i read any posts i thought out loud and came to the conclusion that flatting is best and 4b/c probably 2nd.. ill be honest it never even crossed my mind to 4b/jam
This hasn't changed, i still agree with pretty much what duggs and coolers have said
If villain has a lot of shit in his range then as daryl jace would say post flop we just call him down more
Also if he has a lot of shit in his range then why dont we give him the chance to keep more of that shit in there by 5ing it and calling off??
Of course there has to be some respect here toward the other option strongly backed by marc
I reckon the 2 views come back to the fact that one is primarily concerned with the preservation of our tournament life (flatting and trying to get to showdown) as opposed to having the balls to show the table whos the captain, dont F*** with us and just shoot to the winning circle (4b/jam)
I dont think there is a one size fits all play here..
Its obvious from the people who are posting these replies (who are all successful poker players as far as im aware) that BOTH views are actually viable options..
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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talking this hand over right now with DannyN13 recording the new strategy podcast. Will be up on the site by morning!
March 3, 2013
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Here is another important prespective which is overlooked quite often is Hero's stat –
What kind of stat villan has on you? if your VPIP is higher villian ranger for 3bet is going to be lighter, knowing that you have position on him.
You have very high negative EV playing for all your chips: (13% 3b is not very high range)
1. Option 1 – Fold – you lose 2.5bb (but gives you an edge for a value your super stong hands later)
2. Option 2 – Flat – even if you fold 50% of the time on flop c-bet (this have some +EV)
3. Option 3 – 4b – with determination to fold on shove (again -EV and disadvantage to play speculative hands later)
Lastly, once in a while folding a good hand should not be a problem – it takes very high disclipine and determination to do that but that's what differentiate between good players and great players. 
October 6, 2010
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not sure how you guys can say its negative ev by shoving here. its pretty clearly calculated above that it would be +EV.
obviously it could be greater +EV by flatting or 4bet calling depending on villain, but 4bet shoving is pretty clearly +EV. just might not be the best play.
May 30, 2012
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agree benny
its pretty clearly +EV to jam
July 3, 2010
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If we're 4 betting, it's not to 4 bet fold. I think 4 betting and folding is probab ly the worst overall option we can take here.
I still think shoving is not so great as we allow villain to play perfectly against us even though we should take it down pre fairly often. For the times we jam and win, it doesn't even come close to the times we jam and lose in terms of money gained/lost.
I think Guitey's math up there is correct from what I can tell.
At least if we 4 bet/call we're giving him a chance to “value jam” vs. us with worse pairs, or potentially punt with stuff like suited wheel hands. We end up getting into a massive flip a lot but we also get into spots where we have him dead to rights some times.
We 100% never get into spots where we have him dead if he shove.
That's like the best conclusion I can arrive at and it still might be totally wrong.
Gonna listen to podcast in a bit, should be interesting.
Im starting to lean more towards a flat, 44bbs is so much to shove and I def need to start paying more attention to ICM.
I still think he is 3 betting this spot like 40% of the time, and i do think we gain a lot when he folds and we scoop pot.
Im still on the fence, 44 is just so much.
ffs, losing sleep over this hand
May 30, 2012
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Just listened to the podcast. Love it, glad I could contribute such an interesting hand.
Results were I shoved basically cuz I thought he was full of shit but is sick enough to 5b shove on me and put me in a shitty ICM spot were im gonna have to fold the best hand. Also shows the 2 stacks on our left that they arent gonna be able to abuse us at will. My ICM calc shows that is a losing play tho. 4b/f I think will be a profitable play, just depends how much he's gonna be ****in with us I guess.
Im still liking the idea of open limping…
Villain is pretty well known on 2p2 and puts a lot of time into his game.
It was a $26.
For you guys wanting the result 😉 he had QQ.
July 3, 2010
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Thanks for posting the hand, Guitey. It's been one of the first really interesting ones in a while.
May 30, 2012
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bennymacca said:
not sure how you guys can say its negative ev by shoving here. its pretty clearly calculated above that it would be +EV.
obviously it could be greater +EV by flatting or 4bet calling depending on villain, but 4bet shoving is pretty clearly +EV. just might not be the best play.
this is in cEV terms, maths above showed that jamming is -$EV
also im not sure that jamming 1010 plays well as our overall strategy. if we are going to select hands to jam then are why not jam A2-5s, 22-66 and other hands that only have 5% less equity v their calling range.
March 13, 2013
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duggs said:
bennymacca said:
not sure how you guys can say its negative ev by shoving here. its pretty clearly calculated above that it would be +EV.
obviously it could be greater +EV by flatting or 4bet calling depending on villain, but 4bet shoving is pretty clearly +EV. just might not be the best play.
this is in cEV terms, maths above showed that jamming is -$EV
also im not sure that jamming 1010 plays well as our overall strategy. if we are going to select hands to jam then are why not jam A2-5s, 22-66 and other hands that only have 5% less equity v their calling range.
duggs made the point i was looking to make. if you are jamming w/ TT, then you probably should jam your entire opening range. Your hot/cold equity VS his calling range is pretty close with your entire opening range, and the shove is making money because of how often we think he is folding.
In this spot TT is not different that any pair, and maybe Ax is better because it takes away combos of AA and AK that have us in bad shape.
May 30, 2012
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just listened to the podcast, strongly disagree that given his sizing he can never have top of his range. he is OOP and we dont even know his standard sizing. especially as we dont know how we have reacted to his 3bets previously.
June 11, 2012
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i was thinking the same.
2.66x doesnt seem to big OOP to me. its a fairly standard 3bet size imho.
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