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Trips on river what to do? 3 handed final table on merge
isaacjames
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June 27, 2011 - 3:56 pm
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Sorry about the format TPE Nation, tried to use the converter to no avail.  emailed RFB to try to help in the future. I had been somewhat active, more than the other 2 left.  Prize was 90 to 3rd 150 to 2nd and 225 to 1st
 
Villain had stast of 33/14 over 36 hands with Aggr factor of .63 and Afq  of 14% (these come from playing in the final table from 9 to 3 left so don't overestimate these stats) it was 750/1500 with 150 antes
Merge – $15+$1.50|<> NL – Holdem – 3 players

Action???
 


see if you can read it if not I will repost


 






Seat 2: sechsdrei ($31,915.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 4: Ch1pWr3cked ($124,311.00 in chips)
Seat 5: TheBluffff ($28,574.00 in chips)
sechsdrei: Post Ante $150.00
Ch1pWr3cked: Post Ante $150.00
TheBluffff: Post Ante $150.00
Ch1pWr3cked: Post SB $750.00
TheBluffff: Post BB $1,500.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TheBluffff [2c 3h]
sechsdrei: Call $1,500.00
Ch1pWr3cked: Fold
TheBluffff: Check
*** FLOP *** [2d 7d 2s]
TheBluffff: Check
sechsdrei: Check
*** TURN *** [6h]
TheBluffff: Bet $1,500.00
sechsdrei: Call $1,500.00
*** RIVER *** [9s]
TheBluffff: Bet $1,500.00
sechsdrei: Raise $4,500.00

wilmont
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June 27, 2011 - 8:50 pm
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Think I am shoving his bet to look weak. A reraise is about half your stack so don't see the point. No flush or straight draw so all that beats you is a better set which is pretty unlikely 3 handed. Smells like 2 pair or a missed flush draw trying to steal since your bets were pretty weak.

Get it in and hope he has 2 pair and pays you.

If he has a better set, its an unlucky cooler. JMHO.

Of course if you feel like he might have you, just calling isn't terrible. laugh

lespaulgman
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June 28, 2011 - 12:49 pm
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Based on the action I don't think he puts you on trips and could be thinking you are busted diamonds trying to steal the pot and puts you to the test. If you re-raise him you may get him to come along with you if he isn't a thinker, but if he has any awareness whatsoever as soon as you re-pop he'll fold worse that a set. I think this may be a situation where calling may be a better play for the added value of showdown to see what he limps with. No sense letting him off the hook.

isaacjames
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June 28, 2011 - 3:39 pm
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Thanks Guys:  I did exactly that…..I shoved.  He ended up calling with 85o for a Straight and thats all she wrote for me getting third.  I do think betting so little on the turn was a mistake.  I do see him calling with worst, althoguh I think the range of hands that calls there is more weighted towards hands that beat me.  thanks for the advice

Hagbard Celine
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June 28, 2011 - 6:05 pm
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in general, people don't really bluff-raise on the river. that being said, your river lead is really small and could maybe induce some silliness, so i'd call.

 

i don't see any reason to shove, as it's really optimistic to think he'll call with less than 2x, and any 2x he has beats us.

isaacjames
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June 28, 2011 - 9:48 pm
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Hagbard Celine said:

in general, people don't really bluff-raise on the river. that being said, your river lead is really small and could maybe induce some silliness, so i'd call.

 

i don't see any reason to shove, as it's really optimistic to think he'll call with less than 2x, and any 2x he has beats us.

Thats why you are the Pro Hagbard.  in hindsight I came up with the same conclusion but at the time I just did not see It frown

ll need to keep working at it so I can make those decisions on the spot.

bjizzle44
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June 30, 2011 - 11:38 pm
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calling river for sure, never shoving on pr'd brd with that action. have learned my lesson plenty…. lol

but prior to river, i like betting out on this flop to disguise our hand. we will likely get ranged for some type 7 as our donk lead may be interpreted for a “see where Im at type of bet”. also, by betting out, we will get value from fd's, some over cards and small prs that limp/float that flop. turn i barrel as well. river i chk call. ton of pr's that limp pre likely have boated up.  

 

bjizz

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July 1, 2011 - 8:34 pm
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Agree with Hagbard – shove is very likely -EV since all worse hands should fold most of the time and all better hands always call.

I am probably just betting out the whole way in this spot. When we take this line we’re going to be pot stuck at the end, I think, but is that ever really a bad thing with flopped trips in a limped pot? If it’s a cooler so be it but I don’t want someone sucking out with running cards this cheaply.

hapetimes
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July 6, 2011 - 3:45 am
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I'm probably always betting out flop here and again on turn when called

People dont seem to give any credit to donk leads even in this type of situation with a paired board and we (in the BB) got to see a free flop

They see a donk lead and dont believe… to their detriment

 

shoving the river doesnt get a call from worse hands so i'd just call too

Pettman18
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July 6, 2011 - 9:02 am
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No need to turn your hand into a bluff or over rep your hand so just call river. 

 

You shouldnt be making this size river bet with the intention of folding or raising imo. 

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