July 12, 2013
Pretty interesting turn check by him. I’d have a bit of a hard time putting 10J AQ in his range… KQ w K of clubs may bet turn… KQ no clubs may check turn? I just don’t really buy what he’s selling. Would he raise AK no clubs for value on river? I can’t think of many bluffs… But people also won’t check top of their range on the turn often. They also don’t raise river bluff any where near frequently enough. Do you have any stats on this player? I want to plug it into Flopzilla but I don’t know how wide he would be or how many flushes he could have here.
If i give him a 10% open range and on the flop and he continues with his whole range, then on turn he checks his whole range, on the river he raise top pair, two pair (AK, AA etc), overpairs, he can’t have 3 of a kind, can’t have straights, flushes, and full houses we’re 61% to have best hand. He has a boat or flush 39.4% of the time. So this looks like a pretty clear call. If we widen his range there are still limited flushes he could have J10cc is really the only one outside of the 10% range. Now if he has 56cc then he can obviously be a lot wider than this open I have him on currently. I’d be curious what others think about this.
Good hand though. If you have any stats on the guy I’d be curious to know what they are and the hand sample.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
When villain is opening UTG+2 I think a c/r on flop is significantly better than check-calling. There are a lot of scary turn cards for some of the hands that will auto-stack-off on the flop – TT+ is going to be afraid of any club as well as some straight cards – and you unblock all flush draws which villain is auto-stacking.
Leading turn is certainly a consideration, although if you’re check-raising draws as much as you should be on this flop then it’s not as good of a card for your turn range as it perhaps could be.
As played, I think I fold river. With no flush blockers and villain checking turn you can easily be up against KK or a slowplayed nut flush here, and while villain is very unlikely to have a straight I think many of the hands villain will most likely consider bluffing with on river would have probably bluffed turn instead (Ac blockers, etc). Villain can also have QQ some frequency too, or even 99/88 some small %.
I expect you also have lots of much better hands to call this river with than A9, too – you’re probably check-calling flop with 98, Q9 and K9 if you’re check-calling A9, and you would most likely check turn and bet river with those hands also.
July 12, 2013
theginger45 said
I expect you also have lots of much better hands to call this river with than A9, too – you’re probably check-calling flop with 98, Q9 and K9 if you’re check-calling A9, and you would most likely check turn and bet river with those hands also.
@TheGinger — So if we’re only calling w 89 Q9 K9 then there are no better bluff catchers right? So shouldn’t this be in our calling range? I mean maybe we fold 910 97s that we’re calling from SB. Call KQ w those blockers? I don’t know…. Seems like if we’re folding this hand and only calling boats then isn’t that an extremely exploitable call range? Thoughts?
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