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July 21, 2016
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This is a heads up match, $15 buy in. We’re about 30 hands in and in that time it’s obvious that the villain is both more aggressive and more competent than most players at this level.
Blinds (20/40), I’m in the sb/btn with 1397 and he is the bb with 1633
I raise to 50 with K
9 and he calls
Flop ($100) A
K
7 and we both check
Turn ($100) 9. I bet 66, he raises to 170 and I call
River ($420) 8 and he bets 433.
What should I do?!
For what it’s worth here’s my thinking… I didn’t think he had many sets or two pairs, I think most pairs and AK would all have been 3bet pre flop and I thought he might lead with them on the flop and if not then definitely on the turn on such a wet board. So his value range was a flush or the straights that made it on the river. I think his bluff would be hands like QJ with a . I don’t think he would have turned a hand like KJ with a heart into a bluff.
August 21, 2014
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It is a tricky spot.
I would fold in that situation. The main reason for me for the fold is the small raise on your turn bet. you bet 66 makes it 170.
Preflop:
Preflop he could call with a 25% range 77-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K6s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, ATo-A7o, A5o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o
Turn:
The raise (it is only doubled your bet) on the turn could be made with a range like: JT (with J), 77, T8(with T), QT, QJ (with Q) and with every made flush. He wants to build a pot.
When he does not want you to call he would make his raise bigger to destroy your odds to call. Also he will give up when he’s got absolute air. This small raise looks pretty strong for me.
River:
I have seen river overbets many times in HU at that level. And most of the time they showed up the nuts.
JT makes straight also.
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