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TPTK vs river donk lead getting 3:1
hapetimes
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December 9, 2011 - 5:25 pm
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Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t1000/t2000 Blinds + t200 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

sominx1 (UTG): BB = 12.8, t25686
waterbee174 (UTG+1): BB = 36.7, t73318
Hero (UTG+2): BB = 27.1, t54157
tomirie (MP1): BB = 26.5, t52932
Demakelaar (MP2): BB = 1.8, t3690
Unbelievably (CO): BB = 39.8, t79668
diegomn (BTN): BB = 58.0, t116098
Dollysz (SB): BB = 59.3, t118528
bogdann1982 (BB): BB = 69.8, t139572

Pre Flop: (t4800) Hero is UTG+2 with K of hearts A of spades
2 folds, Hero raises to t4000, 5 folds, bogdann1982 calls t2000

Flop: (t10800) 9 of diamonds 8 of spades K of clubs (2 players)
bogdann1982 checks, Hero bets t4890, bogdann1982 calls t4890

Turn: (t20580) 3 of clubs (2 players)
bogdann1982 checks, Hero bets t9210, bogdann1982 calls t9210

River: (t39000) Q of diamonds (2 players)
bogdann1982 bets t12000, Hero?

 

Was going to go for 3 streets of value if  he checks to me

Yucky little river bet here.. JT and KQ got there.. i was struggling to think of a hand i beat that would play this way.

I was getting >3:1 so if hes bluffing 20%ish of the time i might be able to call but its for a chunk of my remaining stack

 

Thoughts?

hawkeyeK9
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December 10, 2011 - 4:23 pm
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Might be a leak but I am not folding to that little donk lead on the river. You have too much invested to fold to that bet IMO.

hapetimes
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December 12, 2011 - 3:50 am
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well i hope its not a leak either b/c i called and he obv had the JT

i guess this could be villain dependant though?

bennymacca
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December 12, 2011 - 5:31 am
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what does he rep except JT or KQ there though?

 

i agree that it is super hard to fold this, but really, you are good about 0% of the time here, especially when there is no flush draw on the flop

SJOHN11
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December 12, 2011 - 3:49 pm
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Agree your never good here — everything gets there on river.  His river bet smells of value.

emufart
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December 12, 2011 - 4:12 pm
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I agree that it doesn’t make sense for the villian to have a hand worse than AK here, but since when is making sense a prerequisite of how someone decides to play a hand. The fact is most poker players make alot of bad/weird plays, and this is especially true at the $3 level. I wouldn’t be surprised to see JT turned over here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to be shown a hand like K4 or QT either.
I’m not in love with my hand at this point, but I make the crying call.

SJOHN11
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December 12, 2011 - 4:17 pm
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Hes not value betting a weak K or middle pair here — he would want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. Blocker bet? Maybe — but the Q completes the straight and he def cud have KQ in his range. Fold.

bennymacca
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December 12, 2011 - 6:17 pm
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emufart said:

I agree that it doesn't make sense for the villian to have a hand worse than AK here, but since when is making sense a prerequisite of how someone decides to play a hand. The fact is most poker players make alot of bad/weird plays, and this is especially true at the $3 level. I wouldn't be surprised to see JT turned over here, but I wouldn't be surprised to be shown a hand like K4 or QT either.
I'm not in love with my hand at this point, but I make the crying call.

this is true, i guess this is where reads and hud stats come into it
Jeschke
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December 12, 2011 - 7:09 pm
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From what everyone is sayings seems to be spot on and this hand is up for debate for sure. His bet smells like value and very likely he has JT KQ or AK but also the river is a great card to be making a bluff bet like that, not sure how the level of players are here but its not unlikely. Like Bennymacca said Hud would be useful and also checking his previous hands hes played and see if hes done anything fancy would also help.

FkCoolers
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December 13, 2011 - 8:05 am
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This is a spot where it's hardly ever a blocker bet. It's usually a value bet from someone worried that you'll just check behind on a river like this. Didn't read any replies but am guessing some others said this, too.

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