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(1 votes) 
April 30, 2015
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Hi guys,
I need some advice on a situation that I run into very very often in tournaments and you guys would have as well. I am heads up against an average villain who tends to overvalue draws.
So, I flop a good 2-pair or TPTK but there is a flush draw on the board. I know for sure I am ahead at this point, and I have position. I put the villain on a flush draw at best. Flop is checked to me. Do I build up equity by betting now? Is it worth checking back 2 pair here with the intention of being careful if the flush makes it on the turn? Do I keep the pot small and wait till the turn and fire away if flush hits?
I know this sounds more like a generic hand than a hand history. Just want to get your opinions.
My take: Every time, I bet the 2 pair when checked to me and often I get called and have to shut down on the turn if the flush hits. Against an average player, is it better to wait for the turn blank card and give the villain a wrong price to call to catch a flush?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I’m a little confused. It sounds like you’re talking about a situation where you flop top pair or better on a two-tone board, and your opponent checks to you. Let’s say it’s AK on a Ks Js 5c flop. Your opponent checks. Why are you sure he has two spades in his hand? Betting is good not only to get called by spades but also to get called by other draws, by Jx, by Kx, etc.
The answer to your question is that putting money into the pot as a 2:1 favorite is better than giving a free card if you knew your opponent had a draw and would call with it, especially as you’ll be able to play perfectly on the turn. Betting the flop doesn’t prevent you from betting a blank turn, which you say would be your plan if you check the flop. When your opponent has two spades, the turn will be a spade less than 1/4 of the time, yet you are focused on the bad thing that will happen a small amount of the time (you’ll have to check and quite probably lose the pot) rather than the good thing that will happen much more often (you’ll put money in ahead, and get to make another profitable bet on the next street).
I think the bigger problem here is that you are way too focused on the flush draw in the first place. Here’s something I wrote about this problem: …..bout-draws
April 30, 2015
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Andrew,
Agree with most of your points. Putting in money 2:1 favorite is great, but giving the villain appropriate odds to call a flop bet will indirectly help him make the correct decision. He is just an average player (like many many of them I encounter when I play…) and there is a very slim chance he checks top pair on that board… I mean, there are a few times that I have bet the flop in such cases and gotten raised by the villain and I have correctly placed them on flush draws, shoved to give them a wrong price, and have seen that they get there on the turn or on the river. That makes me wonder if it is worth pot controlling on the flop and go big on the turn as the average joe doesn’t like to be on a flush draw with just one card to come.
I like the article you have shared and the first paragraph hit the right chord regarding my post. Most of my live tournaments have ~20-25BB chip average a couple of levels after antes kick in. That makes playability a lot lesser, and more often, you will need to choose to get your whole stack in on the flop or on the turn. In such cases, is it a horrible play to check back the flop and evaluate on the turn?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Even if we agree that Villain rarely checks top pair, which I think is far fetched given how common (and broadly correct) it is to check to the pre-flop raiser, it’s still unlikely that he even has a flush draw in the first place. In additional to all the random hands like 7h 6h that will just check-fold, he can have middle pair, other draws, Ax, and lots of other stuff that you benefit by betting against.
Couple other things to realize:
1. If you bet half the pot and Villain calls with a flush draw, he isn’t necessarily getting “the right price” because you are going to bet again on a blank turn which means that he won’t get two chances to make his draw.
2. Even if V does call with “the right price” that’s still better for you than giving him a free card.
There’s a lot of variance in poker. You should focus on making +EV plays rather than try to avoid bad beats and other unlucky occurrences. If want a variance-free game, go play chess IMO 😉
April 30, 2015
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Haha! Chess needs a lot of thinking.. some 10 moves ahead. Thankfully, poker has only 3 streets of thinking per hand.. and you can easily walk away from the table for some time, unlike chess.
As for variance is concerned, is what I am thinking (check flop mindful of flush possibility) kind of over-thinking? Should I be just accepting the existence of variance and just make the +EV moves without adding an additional layer of thinking?
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