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TP ok kicker late in $3.30 Pokerstars facing large donk bets

jamo

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August 28, 2012 - 7:05 pm

This is a $3.30 tournie on Stars. Villain was 13/0 over 16 hands. I'm happy calling on the flop, but on the turn I have to decide whether to go with the hand or not. His flop and turn bets are pretty big, but are there enough weaker Kx hands in his range for us to get this in here? Is he really betting this big here with a flush draw? Does anyone get it in on the flop?

Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2000/t4000 Blinds + t500 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

SB: BB = 32.1, t128327
BB: BB = 39.6, t158319
UTG: BB = 15.5, t62053
Hero (UTG+1): BB = 80.3, t321149
MP1: BB = 52.3, t209280
MP2: BB = 11.9, t47769
CO: BB = 47.7, t190849
BTN: BB = 29.3, t117250

Pre Flop: (t10000) Hero is UTG+1 with K of hearts T of spades
1 fold, Hero raises to t8400, 5 folds, BB calls t4400

Flop: (t22800) 9 of diamonds K 2 of spades (2 players)
BB bets t16000, Hero calls t16000

Turn: (t54800) 2 of clubs (2 players)
BB bets t44000, Hero ???

hurricanejeff

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August 28, 2012 - 7:14 pm

So many draws here I don't mind getting it in although it is scary because he could be taking same line with a Kx better kicker. I don't think I ever get it in on the flop because he either always has a draw with good equity vs you or a better king, but when he bricks turn you have really good equity vs any draw. You also have to factor in he could have a hand like Ad 2d and you may be dead. I don't really think the sample size is high enough to know how he actually plays but it is very indicative that he isn't a spew.

This to me is a sigh fold on turn.

Turbulence

Falkirk, Scotland

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August 28, 2012 - 7:38 pm

I think with lead bets that big he is more likely to be betting to protect a hand rather that a draw, especially the second barrell. So I think it more likely he has AK, KQ, KJ, K9, 99 possibly AA. Given his stats of 13/0 he seems to be tight passive preflop, so I think it even less likely he is barrelling a a big draw especially after the board pairs. This sort of player I think would be more likely to c/r or c/c a big draw. At this level people do overplay top pair any kicker but I think you are beat here alot. Defo fold to turn bet imo if you call turn you cant fold rvr so you're either getting it in here on turn or folding.

aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1

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