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Tough Turn Spot With a Draw on Final Table Bubble 5$ MTT
mike666
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August 23, 2014 - 9:17 pm
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So we were down to 2 tables – about 13 left. MP seem to be an agressive player (35/26 after 24 hands), however

seems like he can value bet too thin. Some time before he did early position raise with A7s and on A3K10K board

he 2 barreled against BB defend and seemed like he was intending to make a 3rd barrel, but was frustrated by

King on the river (he did complain about that in chat). So on the flop I felt like he will cbet alot and decided to call with intention to bluff later. On the turn I wasn't sure if he will barrel lite with a draw, but will probably try to make thin value bet.

On one hand I felt like I have a strong draw and should probably shove, on the other hand it seemed like I had pretty low fold equity here. What are your thoughts?

 

 25000/50000 Blinds + ante 5000 - 7 players

UTG: t885383		 
UTG+1: t2288692		
MP: t2264841		 
CO: t1937122		
BTN: t813507		 
SB: t2892496		 
Hero (BB): t1371034		 

Pre Flop: (t110000) Hero is BB with 6d 5d
2 folds, MP raises to t100000, 3 folds, Hero calls t50000

Flop: (t260000) Qd 8c 9s (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t157200, Hero calls t157200
 
Turn: (t574400) 8d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets t352000, Hero?

hawkeyeK9
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August 24, 2014 - 2:17 pm
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Mike this is not spot you need to get involved in from the start. It's a fold pre for sure. If your the type that loves to defend the BB, that is fine but then it is a definite fold on the flop with no equity besides a weak gut shot.

Kalculater
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August 25, 2014 - 1:52 am
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The defend is fine imo. I agree with hawkeye that we have a really weak hand on this flop and should be an easy fold. Even if we hit our straight its the bottom end of the straight which can be easily dominated.

Foucault

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August 25, 2014 - 8:03 am
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This is definitely NOT a pre-flop fold. It’s not a question of style, it’s a clearly profitable call and folding is losing money as surely as calling a bet when you’re beat on the river is losing money.

I agree that flop should be a fold. It’s not so much that I’m worried about being dominated as that you’ve only got a few outs and given the description of the opponent you aren’t likely to get a free river. Also because he’s a an EP raiser, it will be tough to bluff him off later. I’d be more comfortable shoving turn against a LP raiser, against EP I think it’s a fold though it is close and I’d consider calling as well.

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