July 20, 2015
To me it kinda looks like a bluff. Probably a semi bluff. Something like Ax of clubs is a lot in his range here. If he would have had something like AK or KQ he would have probably raised you to around 8.5 bbs to induce further action from you. Seems like he really wants to maximize fold equity here. I also don’t necessarily think he puts you on a K.
April 14, 2016
I am no expert (x=check). Of course he can have AK or KQ here but if you called the flp he likely puts you on a draw and would bet again on another K for value. A XR is too dangerous if he had the k as you can xbh and hit your flsh if that was what you were going for. Or check bh a weak made hand for show down value that he could get some thin value from by betting.
However if he knows you would always bet to a turn x then maybe he could trp with ak but on a small sample do not think he could no that.
So a flush draw of some kind would make sense.
From his stats he is opening quite tight and from this position could only be 5-8% opening unless he is opening early more than other positions which a lot of people are doing it seems these days.
Range i would give him pre = 88+, AJ+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs. I think KQ may even not play in this pos if he is playing 19/12 ish. Likely KQ would lp also QJs and KTs may likely lp not raise.
Meaning its quite likely only AK, or KQs if he is trapping. But think these 2nd barrel unless they want to maximise fold equity to get you off a flush draw bad logic in my mind but possible.
xR semi blff potential AJs, AQs if we keep them in QJs, KTs seem the most likely candidates to me.
Not sure what he would do with the pair combos 88-QQ, AA guess the same as AK or KQs as he would bet the flp, then second K would make him think hes good so would bet again. XR ai with these makes no sense as could give you a free card for flush draw.
Especially as you just float and not rr the flp he can not be too scared of a K now, prob puts you on brd ways, low/mid pairs or flsh draw.
Maybe AA spews as the second K makes them scared then you bet and there like oh my AA got cracked again fit i shov. I see this happen sometimes and have done it myself in the past but very hard to quantify something like this in game unless you know their tilt.
This brings me to think it is a call as If he is betting his ak xring ai then he likely does the same with aa, QQ, JJ, TT as he will think he is good on the 2nd k so he can just as likely have pair combos as ak. And if he is semi bluffing which is more likely for most players then your ahead there as well.
(I am not a winning player by the way so take all I say lightly)
September 29, 2014
Interesting hand..just brainstorming, minus any math ha..
I’m looking at some other decision points..In a vacuum I personally would probably fold this hand pre: Hero is not not flopping a flush or str8 draw that often, and it’s not the nut flush draw, KJ has a tendency to get owned with reverse implied odds, and there is still the whole table left to act. But you have a range on him which includes any suited K or A, so as played…
I like the flop call, as you said he Cbets every time and you have top pair. I think folding is out of the question and a raise can set you up to get blow off your hand by a flush draw shove or V trying to protect from the flush draw. So….
I don’t think the turn really changes anything that much: if he has a weak king you are still winning, if he has a strong K you are still losing. If he is on a draw, he still is. You are now beating AA which is something, and I agree some people just go nuts and fire off their AA like this. But I think its a small part of his range. I think I would have checked the turn back here. You have trips (not a set fyi, trips) with a J which is nowhere near the nuts. What’s your value target? I see you may get a bit of value from KT, K9, K8s? but lower K’s than that are probably releasing, as are most A-rag and flush draws I’m guessing, maybe I am wrong. You don’t really want V to fold his other pairs, and chking allows you to keep V’s range open to maybe stab on the riv, which you can call. But betting opens you up to just the situation you found yourself in: Villian shoving with probably a polarized range: you are either way behind (K with good kicker, boats) or way ahead (AA, flush draws) and you have to make a tough decision. ANd even if oyu make the righ one, V still prob has some equity (flush draw) Funny how whenever I play KJs from EP I end up in tough decisions too 😉 …
As played I think i would lean towards a call. If V has the boat already they really want you to hit your possible flush. If V has a good king I doubt V risks losing value from weak K’s or giving the free flush card. SO it looks a bit bluffy to me and I’d prob call and lose all my chips ha!
I guess my overall impression is the KJ is not great in EP and def not worth more than one street of value in this situation and getting away with any chips here is a victory 🙂
but, alas, I am a fish as well..
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
Not sure I’m a big fan of the flat-call preflop. In fact I definitely don’t like it, we can’t be flatting EP raises on 30bb from MP very often. 3-bet and fold are both probably better.
I also think the range of hands you’ve assigned to villain is much, much too wide. He’s playing with stats of 19/11, but you’re assuming he would raise a range of something like 25-30% of hands UTG+1 – that seems like a huge stretch.
That said, once you get to this point it’s a really tricky spot. I think the main problem is you lose to so few combos of hands – 3×55, 3×22 (if those pairs are in villain’s opening range in EP), 1xKQs, 1xAKs, 3xKQo, 3xAKo. That’s a maximum of 14 combos, and you’re not drawing dead against any of them.
On the other hand, you don’t really beat a huge amount – the only worse hand villain can really have for value is KhTh, although if we go with the extremely wide range you originally put villain on then he can theoretically have all the worse Kings as well.
If that’s the case and he can do this with a worse King for value, then you definitely can’t fold here. However, since I imagine you’re probably too wide with villain’s preflop range, it’s probably closer than that. I do think there’s a good chance villain can do this with a strong club draw, and against that you’re obviously miles ahead.
Generally I’m sure I’d call here much more often than I’d fold. If your read on villain’s preflop range is correct there are plenty of hands you beat here, both value hands and bluffs. But it’s not the easiest of spots. I think the biggest mistake you probably made was the flat-call preflop – it’s a very tough spot to have a flatting range.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
AK Mr Blonde said
Anyways…
so im thinking about if i would have 3 bet him preflop like you said. Im just wondering what is it for? Would it be to put me in control of the hand, or narrow down his range? the reason i chose to flat was because i wasnt in love with the hand but it had potential. KJs tends to get me in alot of trouble so i play it cautiously.
If we’re 3-betting preflop, it’s not really a bluff or a value-bet, but a 3-bet designed to cater to the fact that it’s extremely difficult for us to profitably flat-call in this spot with 6 players left to act behind us. Villain can fold better hands (Ax, small pairs) to our 3-bet, they’re probably going to be 4-betting most hands that have us dominated, and our hand plays very well in position postflop so we can extract some EV that way. If we can’t really flat-call in this spot then it makes sense to 3-bet slightly more often as a way to take advantage of this player’s wide range.
It also prevents the players behind us from realising their equity in the hand, which is very valuable – our EV in a heads-up 3-bet pot in position is likely to be much, much higher than our EV in a 3-way or 4-way pot where one or more players has position on us. Generally we want to minimise the number of multiway pots we play, as they tend to be much trickier to negotiate and harder to win without making a hand.
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