July 31, 2012
$300 live tournament, 723 entrants, 81 players get in the money. There are 90 players left, and we about 10 minutes into day 2 at a new table. Blinds are 1,200/2,400 with 400 ante, 9-handed. Relevant stack sizes are:
Hero – 70,600
Button – ~80 to 85,000
SB – 18,400
Action folds around to me in MP2, and I make it 5,200 with ATo. Button calls, SB looks at his cards and resignedly pushes AI after debating for a few seconds. He's an older guy and doesn't seem to be Hollywooding.
The pot is 34,800. It was at this point that I was unsure what to do. Calling the additional 13,200 seems like a terrible idea. It either gives the button a chance to raise me out of the pot preflop or makes me see a flop out of position and possibly getting pushed off the best hand. Raising to isolate seems tricky as well due to the stack sizes and the strength of my hand. A min raise would be 31,600 (45% of my stack), and raise/folding preflop is an even worse idea than calling the SB AI. Raising AI also seems like a bad play because if we push and get called by the button, we're risking bubbling out of the tournament with ATo, which is definitely behind the button's calling range. Folding also appears bad since I know we're ahead of the SB's range (22+, A5+, JT+, the SB's stack is so small I think he may just be looking for a good spot to get it in and hope to get lucky, even with 67o).
Since it's a new table, I don't have any reads to go on. The only information I have so far is that the 4 or so hands that have already been played were pretty tight, with most preflop raises taking down the blinds and antes. No one seemed to want to get into a big pot. My initial plan for the hand was to try and steal the blinds and antes and back off if I met any serious resistance. The primary variable here is the button. I ruled out premium hands like 99+ and AQ+ as I would assume I'd be getting 3-bet by such strong hands in position. However, in the back of my mind I considered that he could have smooth called a monster hoping for one of the blinds to jam (BB had ~40k), but realistically I think this would happen about 5-10% of the time. I also considered the hands a button would smooth call with in position. My guess would be small to med pairs (22-88, which I don't think would be a smart play in his position, but again, I don't know his play style), possibly suited connectors (depending on how loose a player he is), some broadway hands like KQ or QJ, and some Ax hands as well.
I determined that my two worst options were to call or raise small. That left either folding or shoving. I eventually came to the conclusion that most of the time he was calling in position hoping to see a flop, and shoving would work 80% or more. And even if I get called, I'm no worse that 70/30 (unless he has AA).
What do you guys think?
July 7, 2012
I would think the top of the BTns flatting range here are hands like AJ, AT, KQ and JJ (with the exception of trapping with KK and AA) of these hands the only one I can see him risking calling off 80+ % of his stack with is JJ or TT. So on that basis iso shoving shoving should get im to fold a v large % of the time.
Sounds to me though that you got caught a little with your pants down i.e. raising with the intention of a steal but not fully thinking through possible scenarios of action that might happen involving the BTN. I have no doubt you where planning on calling off v the SB and prolly folding to the BB if he shoved.
aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1
PocketFives Profile: .....urbulence/
August 8, 2012
Rather than try to work out the chip EV of this play, I feel it's probably better to look at our chances of elimination given it's on the bubble. We only really need to consider the BTN's range for this since he's the only player in the hand who can knock us out.
If we feel that the BTN is flatting with let's say all broadways, 77+ and maybe a couple of suited connectors like T9s and 98s (16.3%) then of that range, only AQ+,99 might consider calling off, although possibly even tighter since our stack would severely dent his, so maybe AK,TT (3.5%).
If we shove, BTN folds 78.5% of the time.
21.5% of the time he calls, and of that we lose 73.7% of the time.
So our chance of elimination is 21.5% x 73.7%, which is 15.84%.
I feel that the SB's range is much tighter than you suggested since he has no fold equity vs a raise and a flat, it's on the bubble and despite only having just under 8BBs he does still have fold equity with an open shove. Also, the SB's stack does put us down to c. 21BBs so this might be something to consider going forward.
July 31, 2012
Thanks for the feedback. The button ended up tanking for about 3 minutes before finally deciding to call with AKo. Because of the amount of time it took for him to make the decision, he obviously wasn't trapping with that hand. I incorrectly assumed that AK would have fallen within his three bet range (although if he was a good player, he should have), and even then he was still wary of putting most of his chips in with AK. I guess the bubble played a larger part in his decision making than it should have. The SB had 44, so I read his range correctly.
The flop came out with a K, and sent me home in 88th. I have thought about the hand a lot, and my first impression was that I made a mistake, but I only really came to that conclusion because I lost the hand. It's hard not to be results-oriented near the bubble. If he was even considering folding AK in that spot, then my shove should have worked more often than normal. I'm guessing he would fold AQ, TT, and maybe even JJ there.
And Turbulence, you are correct. I was planning on calling a SB shove and folding to a BB shove.
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