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November 4, 2013
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Here is a toughish spot I played in the Venetian DSE $1k over the passed weekend. We are in the penultimate level of the day, and I'm definitely one of the top 10 stacks left on Day 1b.
Villian is new to the table. He's a really good online HSMTT grinder. No real feel for how he is playing yet. Table is quite aggressive, and full of very skilled players.
Hero – ~100k
Villian – ~ 60k
UTG – ~ 90k
Blinds are 400/800/100
UTG opens to 1800, I flat with AQss. Villian is on my immediate left and 3 bets to 5200. UTG flats, and I flat.
Flop is AhJs8s – UTG checks, I check, Villian bets 5600, we both call.
Pot is ~34k, turn card is Qc. UTG Checks, I check, Villian bets 11,200. UTG folds, I flat.
Pot is ~56k, river card is 3d. I check and Villain ships after about 20 seconds for 37k. Hero??
I immediatly hate my life. This is for about half my remaining stack (i'd have 40k left, for about 50BB). While on the face of it, this looks like a really easy fold… I hate the idea of folding top two. He never has K10 here. Just not happening. That really only leaves JJ, QQ, AA, AK, AQ, AJ and maybe 88. I don't think he would 3 bet 88 preflop in this spot. AA and QQ are really unlikely due to me holding blockers, but still a possibility. I don't think there is a reason for him to bet AK on this river, as he's never getting worse to call, and is pretty much destroyed by my entire 3 street flat range here. That leaves us with JJ, AQ, AJ.
Thoughts?
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December 30, 2013
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he probably has a bluff range here too. dont see how folding is an option especially when you cover and consider that its not just value hands hes shoving the river with. think you just have to call.
btw, i believe he also has a lighter preflop 3bet range, including suited connectors like T9s…i agree that he prob doesnt 3bet 66-99 type hands either.
im somewhat surprised it doesnt get in on the turn? will be very interested in result.
November 4, 2013
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Some things to consider –
This was without question the “Table of Death”, as it be. We had all joked that we were quite thankful it was soon to break, as you could sit in any random seat at any other table and be in a better spot. This includes to the immediate right of Eric Lindgren, who was just destroying stacks. A look at Hendon Mob/Pocketfives shows the players at the table to be well into the millions in winnings. While I wouldn't say I was the biggest fish at the table, I was definitely not the shark. More like a scrappy little minnow.
I had decided pre-flop that I was going to play the hand passively. I had been running into horrible spots all tournament whenever I had AQ and got 3 bet. That's why it doesn't get in on the turn. I was quite relieved to see the queen, as it obviously makes my hand super strong and does give me great showdown value. I was honestly quite shocked to have him shove the river. Looking back, it makes perfect sense, but in game I expected a check back or a bet of about 18k.
I'm not really sure that he shows up with bluffs here as a shove very often. We are too deep here to bluff off a stack like that. I suppose some guys do, just not a line I see being taken often enough to really consider it. Maybe I'm just getting bluffed here more than I think.
September 5, 2013
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Whats villains perception of you? Does he think your capable of folding (top) two here? I think you rep AQ,JJ,AJ, KQss, ATss. If you are only going to fold KQss and ATss ( 2 combo's) it's going to be a terrible bluff spot for him which makes it an easy fold. Therefore I also doubt he's going to valueshove AJ. So his valuerange is something like AA,JJ,AQ ( assume he's checking QQ on flop). Would be a snapcall if you think he thinks your folding two pair here and has some bluffs in his range.
@moveslikedarwin, I think villain is deep enough to flat the suited connectors types of hands. I do think the 3b range could be lighter with hands like KTo and 109o. I also don't like a c/r on turn because it will make villain fold his bluffs and other hands we beat.
January 20, 2014
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This is one of my favorite times in live mtts. One of my favorite moments. The soul read. The [great or horrible] [call or fold].
Whenever I am facing a shove on the river and I don't know what to do, I do this:
I usually stop, and then I might say something like, “Wow, I didn't think you were going to do that!” I say it as I'm laughing. I might take off my hat and sunglasses, rub my head, I get animated and moving in my seat to let them know I have a decision. The whole time I am looking at them. I'm watching for any reaction. Anything. I do anything I can to get them talking. If I heard them mention something prior to this hand about one of their hobbies, or some other interest they have, I ask them questions about that. I may take several minutes to decide if I'm going to call.
If after all that, and they still don't budge, I start giving clues about my hand out loud. I start guessing what they could have. “You could have 3 bet with AA … or QQ … I don't think you would take this line with KT … maybe you would with KT of spades … wait is that possible? (Glance at your whole cards) yeah that's possible, I don't have either of those…” the other players laugh. Watch for anything they do. Do they shift in their chair? Are they breathing faster or slower than normal? Do they look like they are acting in some way? Have they moved or called the clock?
In some rooms you can't talk about your cards, but I have found that if you do this in a funny way, that gets people at the table and the dealer to laugh, you can get away with it. Think humor. Imagine Daniel Negreanu. Imagine Joseph Hachem in the final hand vs Steve Dannenmann. Joe says, “Are you having fun?” This gets Steve talking and puts him in a jovial mood where he eventually calls off drawing dead to a split.
After I go through all this, and I watch my opponent for several minutes, some thought will be emerging from the back of my head. It will either say, “Call” or “Fold”. And I listen to it, and follow it, every single time. Sometimes you will be wrong, but when you are, then it gets filed into the computer (your subconscious) and you learn something new so the next time you will be right.
Basically what I'm doing here is I'm letting my subconscious make the decision. I'm following my gut feeling. Your subconscious knows far more than you can image about body language, voice inflection, voice tone, pupil dialation, facial twitches, breathing rate, pulse rate (on their neck it's visible), and other clues. All of these clues are run through your brain like a computer and it will spit out an answer. Give your brain some time to pick these up – several minutes. And assist it by trying to get some kind of reaction out of the other person.
I guess I didn't answer your question on whether this was a call or a fold, but it was good for me to write down my process when I'm facing a similar decision. It usually happens several times in every deep run of a live tournament. Maybe you or somebody else learned something that they can apply in the future.
Thanks for the post.
~SIGABA
November 4, 2013
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I tend to do the same a lot, but I usually have that “voice” in my head from pretty much the instant the other player makes their action. I always have a plan, although we all know how well plans tend to work in this game. I will honestly say that I didn't expect him to shove river. I had miscounted his stack though, so I actually thought he had more chips, which would have made a river fold a much easier decision.
I worked through the hand, partially out loud, and was very clearly not comfortable with the situation. My intuition said to fold, because I can't see any logical lines where 2 pair is ever good here. I just don't seem to like to listen to my intuition in these big spots.
So I called, he rolled over JJ, and I shipped him about 40% more of my stack than I should of. While I don't hate my call, I'm not overly in love with it, and I wasn't at the time I made it. I just really hate folding.
This was by no means meant to be a results orientated thread… I was truly curious about what other players would do in this spot, because it's not as clear and transparent as we would assume. Folding top two is insanely hard to do, even when we are pretty clearly in a not good spot.
November 22, 2013
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I don’t like commenting on hands like this because I think it comes down to a soul read. He either has you beat with a set or unlikely straight or he is representing that he does. I wasn’t there so I don’t know what reads you had but all you can beat is a bluff because I don't think a hand such as AK or AJ takes that line.
P.S. Oops I saw you posted the results already.
January 20, 2014
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I used to find myself calling bets like this on the river just to prove myself right. To prove to myself how great I was at reading hands, I would call just so that I could see his cards, and see if I was right. “I was beaten, see! I told you, I knew I was beat!” I would tell myself. It was a big leak in my game, and I have almost completely plugged it. Every once in a great while it will show up, but nothing like it used to.
But I have learned that sometimes you can get players to show one or both of their cards if you fold. It takes a little friendly banter, but usually if you can get them laughing, they will show you at least one. If they feel like they can gain a small piece of your friendship, like they are trying to win you over a bit, and they feel like they can still deceive you in a small way they will usually do it. “I tricked you, it was a bluff – look! Ts7s” Or they feel like they are still being deceitful by only showing one card (but you can gain a lot of information by only seeing one card!)
The worst that can happen is you fold, they don't show, and you don't know anyways, so what's the difference? It never hurts to ask! Sometimes you're going to lay down the best hand, but you can't win them all. Just file every single significant hand that you play into the back of your subconscious, and remember exactly how he played it. You'll probably play him again sometime, and now you have that information for the future.
Really interesting hand! Thanks again for posting it 
June 1, 2012
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This is a tough hand for both you and the villan. He's got to be thinking there's a chance a better hand exists. While you're thinking he might have you beat. Playing with a $100k stack and getting down to $80K after the turn is a really difficult spot on the river. At this point, I would have to determine if calling the river bet has a positive or negative weight on your stack. What's worse falling to $40K or staying at $80K? If you're comfortable dropping back to 40BB's and you think you have the best hand, go for it. If you get the feeling that he's got you beat, let it go and stay at 100BB's. If he shows the bluff, good for him. You'll be heading into day 2 with a healthy stack and a better table draw.
November 4, 2013
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The hindsight on the hand was a lot of what Docs had to say… In the end I was fine with a 50BB stack at this point if I called and he rolled over a set.
For Wizardur… it did come down to a soul read. There is some intangibles that are really only found in live poker involved, but the end of it was instinct and a soul read. It's quite possible I called purely to prove I was right and he had JJ. While I would of been fine if I folded and he showed a bluff or didn't show at all, this was just a spot I wasn't sure I could give up.
Getting a better table draw was fairly unlikely. While they would soften up a bit on Day 2, there wasn't going to be any tables without at least 2 very solid players. At one point in Day 2(yes I did survive after this call, actually ran semi deep), there was 7 top notch players vying for the chips from 2 fish. Either way, I would have been fairing much better through the last level of Day 1 and for all of Day 2 with an extra 40k in my stack.
It was tough. I was wrong, even it being that meant I was only proving that my reads were right. Next time.
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