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tough river spot
bigdogpckt5s
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January 22, 2011 - 12:14 pm
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A little info Ciao had over jammed the pot on me about 5 or 10 hands before this hand. I really just have no clue what to do on this river bet. I tanked almost my whole time bank before I decided and I usually  make my decisions really really quick. So thought this was a interesting hand to post. Let me know what you guys think.

 

Seat 1: caio_pimenta (47180 in chips)
Seat 2: mntbb (85236 in chips)
Seat 3: bigdogpckt5s (89654 in chips)
Seat 4: GoCubsGo1969 (47954 in chips)
Seat 5: mement_mori (42745 in chips)
caio_pimenta: posts the ante 100
mntbb: posts the ante 100
bigdogpckt5s: posts the ante 100
GoCubsGo1969: posts the ante 100
mement_mori: posts the ante 100
mement_mori: posts small blind 500
caio_pimenta: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bigdogpckt5s [Qc Kh]
mntbb: calls 1000
bigdogpckt5s: calls 1000
GoCubsGo1969: folds
mement_mori: folds
caio_pimenta: raises 3500 to 4500
mntbb: calls 3500
bigdogpckt5s: calls 3500
*** FLOP *** [Kd 8h 9s]
caio_pimenta: bets 5500
mntbb: folds
bigdogpckt5s: calls 5500
*** TURN *** [Kd 8h 9s] [4d]
caio_pimenta: checks
bigdogpckt5s: checks
*** RIVER *** [Kd 8h 9s 4d] [3s]
caio_pimenta: bets 37080 and is all-in

GaryLQ
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January 22, 2011 - 5:42 pm
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I know I'm way out of my league posting here, but I think I find a fold. His OOP line looks super-strong to me. This guy was surely gonna check-raise you on the turn, that didn't work out so he jams the river to rep a bluff. It's a monster or air. I err on the side of caution this time and fold to preserve my status as chip leader.

bigdogpckt5s
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January 23, 2011 - 12:34 pm
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I was starting to think nobody wanted to reply to my post :(. Will post results tomorrow 1 more day to see if anyone else has thoughts on this. Thanks Gary.

shangobango
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January 23, 2011 - 1:06 pm
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I am like Gary. I feel like I am way out of my league posting here but I am gonna give it a shot. In real time I would have likely folded. But as I look at the HH I think that the check on the turn may indicate he was shutting down or trying for a free river card.If he had a monster why wouldnt he put in a bet on the turn to give himself an approx. pot size shove on the river? When you check back the turn he may have decided that you were floating the flop light and figured he could take the pot by shoving on the river. I guess my question is would he check the turn with a strong hand being there are straight draws on the board? Like I said I would probably have folded when he put me in this position in real time.

bennymacca
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January 23, 2011 - 7:09 pm
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my head would explode in this spot, but i think its a tough fold unless your previous history tells you he does this with air. otherwise its a big price to pay to find out what sort of bet this is.

hawkeyeK9
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January 23, 2011 - 8:30 pm
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Great post bigdog. My thoughts lean towards what he would bet oop with pre. I feel he is doing this with 99+ or AK. I gave him a narrow range there but the way the hand played out I think it is a decent assessment.

The check on the turn is so confusing because if he had AK then maybe he checks turn for pot control and when you check behind he might shove river for value thinking he must have best hand….but what would you call a river shove with that doesn't beat AK, pretty much the only hand would be KQ which u have and he cant put you on that.

What about medium to high pairs. You float flop, he gets scared and checks turn, when he sees you check behind he thinks you are light and he shoves on a semi-bluff with JJ?

Those are my thoughts. Really tough spot. I feel villian most likely has TT or JJ. Hope you called him down. Interested in result.

BiggDawgg
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January 24, 2011 - 12:55 am
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I want to say he can't beat kings here .. I think the check on the turn shows weakness and he is affraid of the king .. he also thinks your check on the turn means you were also weak so he pushes thinking he can steal it on the river

Krul Hul
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January 24, 2011 - 2:20 am
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I call. Smells like a beaten hand. His previous shove on you gives him confidents in the non call. If truly had aa, ak, he would want to be looked up with that river and wouldn't check the turn. 88, 99, 44, 33 preflop raise sizing to stacks hes coming in against doesn't seem right. I would think jj, qq, or a well played 89 suited, but again two pair would want a call so I lean to jj or qq. I call but then again Im responding to this and not at my own final table… tonight.

FkCoolers
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January 24, 2011 - 2:24 am
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He's jamming a pretty polarized range I think… any specific history between you and Ciao aside from the single overjam like 10 hands ago?

Also… it's like… what does he put us on when we flat pre and then flat flop? Basically the hand we have and not too much else and he still jams the river.

We got ourselves into a toughie here…

bennymacca
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January 24, 2011 - 4:30 am
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FkCoolers said:

He's jamming a pretty polarized range I think… any specific history between you and Ciao aside from the single overjam like 10 hands ago?

Also… it's like… what does he put us on when we flat pre and then flat flop? Basically the hand we have and not too much else and he still jams the river.

We got ourselves into a toughie here…


yeah, is he trying to get us to fold KQ or trying to get a hero call from KQ?
ytseshred
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January 24, 2011 - 12:59 pm
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Question on the bg of the hand: was this the FT or a 6-max tourney approaching the bubble?  What was the tourney?

Trying to get better at ranging people so I'll throw out my thoughts w/o knowing the stage of the tourney, curious to see what others think.

His pf raise makes me think his range is JJ+, A10s+, AJo+, KQ.  Maybe KJs.  Although I guess 5 handed that range can be widened a bit – that's where I'm not sure how far…  Since he's in the BB with 2 late position limpers that both have him covered and his stack being at 47bbs wouldn't he just want to take a multiway flop OOP w/o bloating the pot if he had medium suited connectors or medium pairs?

Def a tough spot, but given the stacks and his line I think I might talk myself into a call thinking the most likely hand he shows up w/ from the range I've assigned is AQ, KQ, KJ, AK, JJ, QQ, KK, AA and we only lose to 3 of those hands, chop against 1, and beat the other 4.  I'd slightly discount the AK w/o knowing past info on the villain since he checked the turn and it was a pretty safe card for AK to continue betting at.

If I'm wrong on his PF range with it being 5 handed and we add in 8s, 9s, & 10s then it's a bit closer, but if we add those in I'd guess we'd be adding in QJ, J10s and K10s, but I'd think J10s would just like to see the flop.  Interested in hearing the pro's thoughts.

G0liath
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January 24, 2011 - 2:01 pm
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My instincts say he riveted a set of 3s and is trying to extract maximum by confusing you into calling what looks like a fishy ‘please fold’ bet. My head tells me he doesn’t need to bluff like this so big so why would he risk his life on a bluff praying you don’t hero call. My logic tells me you wouldn’t be posting it here if you hadn’t called and lost the hand. Fold on all 3 counts.

ytseshred
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January 25, 2011 - 10:48 pm
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big dog, still awaiting your thoughts and the results!

bigdogpckt5s
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January 26, 2011 - 12:01 am
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lol some interesting thoughts here guys. I really was confused and had no idea what hand he was doing this with. So after using my complete time bank I ended up calling and he had 10 5 of diamonds. A couple people mention they think he might have JJ or hands in that range. Def dont think hes turning that hand into a bluff with a over jam he might decide to bet for value with the jj but doubt hes over jamming the pot. Alot of times he prolly even checks jj there. Anyway thanks for the responses guys. And gl on the felts.

xxsosickxx
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January 26, 2011 - 12:13 am
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So is the lesson here if something smells fishy(doesnt make sense) then we are to bust out the tarter sauce and feast on smoked trout? ……Pissed i just saw this and couldnt help but read all responses including results before i took a crack at this….keep em' comin' BigDog and gc sir, gc

GaryLQ
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January 26, 2011 - 4:31 am
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Wow, great call!

lespaulgman
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January 26, 2011 - 12:23 pm
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I’d like to ask a bit of a followup on this as the behavior between micr/low and HS in this situation is huge. My guess is the reason a lot of responses were JJ+ is that in the low stuff this is so often a piss poor attempt at a value bet to illict a hero call from a confused opponent. What I am curious about is where do folks think the line is that this converts from” how big a hand is it and do I beat it” to” is it a hand at all or a really good bluff”?

flgtb786
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January 27, 2011 - 1:16 pm
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The line looks kinda scary I dont think I can fold here. His representing range with that line that actually beats you taking into account the turn check with the intention of check raising you is pretty slim (AA, AK, maybe 88, 99, 98s or cooled with KK?).

Krul Hul
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January 28, 2011 - 5:24 pm
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lespaulgman said:

I'd like to ask a bit of a followup on this as the behavior between micr/low and HS in this situation is huge. My guess is the reason a lot of responses were JJ+ is that in the low stuff this is so often a piss poor attempt at a value bet to illict a hero call from a confused opponent. What I am curious about is where do folks think the line is that this converts from” how big a hand is it and do I beat it” to” is it a hand at all or a really good bluff”?


For me that line flips by his turn and river action. Weak players when short if they make a play at a hand prepreflop get called on the flop, see what they perceive on the turn (because thats what they want to believe) in alot of cases do exactly what he did… actions speak louder than words. What worries me is my table image after. Smart players will see that you read the play correctly but risked 1/3 stack on a single pair by the river. I become very wary of big river bets after that if a villian plays a hand in a some what similar manner.

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