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(1 votes) 
November 18, 2013
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$300 live tournament. About 18% of the field is left in the last 3 levels of day 1
Blinds 400/1500/3000
An unusually conservative player opens 7000 from the hijack. The cutoff, who has tended to flat instead of 3-bet and also seems cautious 3-bet shoves for 52K. The button, who has a lot more aggro gamble than the other two decides to shove all in for 120K.
Hero is in the SB with 37K and pocket 10s. i was planning to shove over the first raise, and leaning toward calling the second raise, but with 2 all ins behind me I can't decide if I should take my chance to triple up or fold and hope for an opportunity to open the action (which has been rare due ot button's aggro nature)
April 14, 2014
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I would fod here. It sucks to fold TT with 12bbs but with all of that action ahead of you you are almost never good unless you spike a T. You will probably get spots later. You might not get as good of a hand as TT but you might get some fold equity and not just pray for a race equity.
April 30, 2015
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Fold fold fold!! Even if you assume the two people shoving don't have pocket pairs, they could be doing it with AK/AQ kinda hands which means 3 overs to your 1010. And since you are in SB and not pot committed for the next full orbit except for the antes, I would look for better open-shove positions especially that you are going to have good position over the next few hands.
November 18, 2013
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I sigh folded. The original raiser also folded. cutoff had AQs and button AKo. Neither made a pair. While I do prefer having some fold equity to this spot, I need to do some math and some range guessing to see if it's mathematically close to a call.
November 24, 2013
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Um, easiest fold ever? Based on your description, unless players are terrible, even the button, although he's been active, will never reshove here without something thats at least flipping with you. I mean once in a lifetime you could run into 88 and 99 here but more often into flips and higher pairs. If you are quite shortstacked here compared to the tourney average and not close to the bubble it will be closer.
November 18, 2013
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While I agree it's a fold, I don't think it's a trivial fold. Here are some counter arguments for calling, or at least doing some mathematical analysis on the situation:
– There's a lot of money in the pot. Having 40BB near the money bubble is way better than having 12 BB (soon to be 8 soon with blinds increasing).
– At an active table, there aren't many chances to open and I need some kind of equity to re-shove.
– If I call it would be 35K to win 85K. That's a pretty good return on a gamble. I need 30% equity.
– There are likely some lower pairs in V1s range and defintely times I'm racing 2 overs.
– V2s range is much stronger, but it's worth considering if it's my equity is poor or terrible. Keeping in mind V1 can have 16 combos of AK and 18 combos of QQ+, it's not guaranteed to have only 2 outs.
– A non-trivial percentage of the time both villains have overs and share an ace. If I'm facing AQs and AKo I'm 42% to win.
November 18, 2013
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So giving V1 a fairly wide range of {77+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+}
and V2 a strong range of {QQ+, AKs, AKo}
Tens have 27.75% equity. If I take KK and AA out of V1s range assuming he may flat those some of the time, TT has 29% equity. So while it's a big dog, it's a gamble where I'm almost getting the right price.
In the end I folded and the original raiser folded. V2 showed AKo and V1 AQs. Tens would have scooped the pot, but I do think that's the best case scenario and not quite common enough to justify the call.
November 24, 2013
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TheClubber said:
So giving V1 a fairly wide range of {77+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+}
and V2 a strong range of {QQ+, AKs, AKo}
Tens have 27.75% equity. If I take KK and AA out of V1s range assuming he may flat those some of the time, TT has 29% equity. So while it's a big dog, it's a gamble where I'm almost getting the right price.
In the end I folded and the original raiser folded. V2 showed AKo and V1 AQs. Tens would have scooped the pot, but I do think that's the best case scenario and not quite common enough to justify the call.
But that is ignoring the first player that you said plays “unusually conservative”. While he folded here, one should consider that he has something good. Also not sure why you want to take the strongest hands out of V1s range. Yes, he may play strong = weak but that's a fairly wild guess, normally one should assume if he raises rather than calls he's stronger than usual.
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