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(3 votes) 
June 2, 2013
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Hello!!
I played this hand, I am a bit unsure about the line I choose to play it post flop, I have this reads on BTN:
1 – 1500/3000 blinds, limps A4s EP with 5bb, call shove (not sure if it was FT or not);
2 – 2000/4000 blinds, limps QQ EP with 8bb stack;
3 – 60/120 blinds, 3bet squezze all in, 21bb from BB, my utg raise and utg1 call, with K8s.
Merge, $11 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 19,721 (98.6 bb)
BB: 4,256 (21.3 bb)
UTG+1: 4,002 (20 bb)
UTG+2: 6,485 (32.4 bb)
MP1: 4,934 (24.7 bb)
MP2: 3,905 (19.5 bb)
Hero (MP3): 6,086 (30.4 bb)
CO: 5,080 (25.4 bb)
BTN: 4,003 (20 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9
A
4 folds, Hero raises to 400, CO folds, BTN calls 400, SB folds, BB calls 200
Flop: (1,480) 6
9
A
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: (1,480) Q (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 740, BTN calls 740, BB folds
River: (2,960) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 2,843 and is all-in, Hero calls 2,843?
Here is my thoughts:
OTF: I have top two, with ~2.3 pot size bet on effective stacks, I think if BTN has any A or str8 draw he will bet and I was going for check raise all in, if BB had that he will lead turn and I can reraise then, or just call on 5, 7, 8 or T. I expect them to bet sets and two pairs also; not sure about the target for me to bet here, thoughts on this?
OTT: No one bets, and Qd put some more draws on the table, now I choose to bet.
OTR: My second pair got screwed lol, I am losing to biger ace, or spliting the pot now; with 1 pot size bet I choose to check call, maybe V will shove some busted draws, or just check and fold?
February 14, 2013
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pretty tough; I suppose you need to know what he does with hands like JTo or KTdd on the flop. If he does a fair bit of flop betting I would fold river. If he’s extremely passive on the flop you could maybe beat enough busted draws here to call, but I would imagine he probably bets too many of those on the flop for you to call here.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I like your line until river. Whether we call or not depends on how capable of bluffing villain is, and since we have some fairly weird reads on them it’s kind of a tough one.
Villain has bet almost full pot on the river, so we need to win 34% of the time to call. If villain has a Queen or air, they probably have around 20 combos of Qx on the conservative end or 30 on the loose end, which means they need to have 10-15 combos of bluffs.
If they play all of their JT this way (16 combos) then we’re good to call – in reality they probably only play it this way some of the time, but if we add in some of their other busted gutshots (T8 and J8 are also out there as well as KT and KJ) then it’s quite likely that they have enough bluffs for us to call. They have so many bluffing combos that they only need to be bluffing each one a small frequency in order for us to call.
February 20, 2015
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Bumping this because it’s a concept I hadn’t thought of and perhaps it will help others.
Surely we all understand the importance of including bluffs in someone’s range, but for me at least it’s been a separate exercise from the player’s actual range. (The only exception is a blank river on a formerly wet board in which all draws miss.)
What I see you saying here is counting combinations of hands that are now only bluffs (such as JT), guessing the probability that they would bluff with them, and then comparing it with the number of made hands they have in their range. Seems so obvious, but glad to finally understand that.
February 24, 2015
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Thanks ginger! I just learned so much from that post.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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joelshitshow said
Bumping this because it’s a concept I hadn’t thought of and perhaps it will help others.Surely we all understand the importance of including bluffs in someone’s range, but for me at least it’s been a separate exercise from the player’s actual range. (The only exception is a blank river on a formerly wet board in which all draws miss.)
What I see you saying here is counting combinations of hands that are now only bluffs (such as JT), guessing the probability that they would bluff with them, and then comparing it with the number of made hands they have in their range. Seems so obvious, but glad to finally understand that.
Glad this made some sense. It’s certainly really crucial to recognise that a player’s range is made up of all the possible hands they can have in a spot, including bluffs. People don’t generally just randomly decide to bluff with hands that make no sense for them to even have (for example, villain is not calling that turn bet with 5-4 of spades for any reason), so we always have to consider what hands villain is actually bluffing with. Many times they simply can’t get to a certain spot with a bluffing hand.
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