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top set OTF, weird run out?
almofadinhas
Playing The Prelims
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April 11, 2016 - 5:29 pm
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IPoker, $1.82 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): 22,102 (55.3 bb)
BB: 6,830 (17.1 bb)
UTG+1: 6,512 (16.3 bb)
UTG+2: 16,429 (41.1 bb)
MP1: 18,083 (45.2 bb)
MP2: 8,363 (20.9 bb)
MP3: 6,360 (15.9 bb)
CO: 13,649 (34.1 bb)
BTN: 28,329 (70.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Qclub Qdiamond
6 folds, BTN calls 400, Hero raises to 1,600, BB folds, BTN calls 1,200

Flop: (4,050) 8diamond Tclub Qheart (2 players)
Hero bets 2,025, BTN calls 2,025

Turn: (8,100) Aclub (2 players)
Hero bets 4,050, BTN calls 4,050

River: (16,200) 7club (2 players)
Hero bets 14,377 and is all-in??? …

Hello!

Only read on V is that he is donk, don´t play many hands, about 20%, limp about 15% I think (no HUD at the moment).

I guess flop is very good, losing only for J9… Turn not that good, improve KJ and maybe slowdown the action for V, but he calls anyway… River is a 7c I don´t think I have to worry about flush a lot here, should I?

All the streets I am betting for value, not sure about my sizing, any street to bet bigger? or smaller? Should I pot control at any time?

Thoughts?

theginger45

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April 12, 2016 - 4:06 am
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Would go slightly bigger on turn to make the river shove slightly smaller, but there’s absolutely no reason to slow down here. Almost every time you flop a set like this your goal should be to get three streets of value, and there are definitely worse hands that call here. AT, AQ, perhaps some 88 if villain slowplayed them – not that many, but there’s also not many you lose to either.

It’s hard for villain to have J9 and you have the Qc blocked so KcQc or QcJc aren’t out there. You more or less only lose to KJ. Keep firing, especially against a passive villain. There’s no reason to pot control with a very strong hand on a board which could get ugly if villain checks behind and take a free card.

BalletBoi
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April 12, 2016 - 12:00 pm
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Your analysis is correct – there’s not too much fear worrying about a flush. Only combos would make sense would be the 8cXc that paired the flop and continued, or some other backdoor flush draw holding that would have reason to call the flop – something specifically like 7c9c.

I wouldn’t worry about villain having a straight on the river, either, as you would’ve heard about that on either the flop or turn.

Therefore, your main focus is value. I agree with “theginger45” that if you make your flop and/or turn bets slightly bigger, that’ll create a more favourable stack-to-pot ratio for you on the river with hopes of going for a shove (ie. of 1/2 pot to 3/4 pot instead of something closer to a pot sized bet).

Think of the hands that villain is likely to call 3 streets with – an turned pair of aces (ie. floats the flop or calls with a straight draw – A9 / AJ), or two pair. These are holdings that you beat and will likely call a sizeable value bet. Everything else though (pair of Tens, the case Q) are likely to fold to any further river aggression. Therefore, it’s okay to continue betting and to bet reasonably big.

The only time you could go for a smaller river bet here (like 1/4 pot) would be if you thought villain usually would have TX or QX here (thin value) or if he had a busted straight draw and you thought he’d be capable of turning a missed draw into a bluff and shoving the river himself. However, because he could easily hold an Ace and call a bigger bet on the river, I think the way the hand was played was fine.

Just for flop/turn next time, don’t feel obligated to click the 1/2 pot button and then bet it – it’s okay to use that as a baseline and then vary it up or down just to give some dynamics (ie. pot control – smaller bets) to your betting, that in this case, could set up a better sized river shove if you had bet the flop / turn bigger.

Foucault

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April 12, 2016 - 2:00 pm
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Good responses here, I’ll just add that I think your constant focus on hands that beat you is problematic. In fact, I think with stacks being what they are you have a hand that you shouldn’t fold almost ever, which makes it pretty much irrelevant what someone is going to do with better hands than yours. Your focus needs to be on how to get value from worse hands. I would give serious consideration to check-calling or check-raising the flop. As others have said, if you’re going to bet-bet-bet, you should aim for more similar fractions of the pot. 

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