March 29, 2016
I like the way you played pre and on the flop.
However I hate the turn play. For me it is a must check-raise. With the amount of draws on the board, you should protect your hand.
Any Q, any T and any diamond on the river would be a disaster for you. That’s 30% chance of bad river. When villain bets the turn, in the pot there is 70k, you’ve got 130k behind. I wouldn’t like to lose that pot by slowplaying too much, especially if that’s a final table. Also, you can get some value from KJ or some strong draws.
If villain shoves the turn, that’s fine for me. You are behind QJ only, and even against that hand, you have 10 outs.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I don’t mind your line. There’s really only a tiny number of diamond combos and Qx/Jx combos in villain’s two-barrel range, so I’m not super concerned about villain sucking out once we just peel the turn. I think the fact that we block most of villain’s value on the turn and they might fold some fairly strong hands when QJ is part of our range means the turn call is fine.
River seems pretty good, it’s really hard for you to have bluffs here but it’s also really hard for villain to have much Qx. I think betting to try to get called by TT/77/KK/KT etc is fine as long as you perceive villain to be calling here with those hands. That said, against some spewy villains I don’t mind betting super tiny to induce bluffs here – something like 10k, maybe. Your line seems fine, though.
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