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(3 votes) 
December 21, 2013
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Villain is unknown, first level of play I think.
Pre I should have raised to 360k this deep.
Flop standard, on turn I’m calling the raise and planning to evaluate river but mostly calling.
Tanked a while before folding river, I didn’t think villain was bluffing : the size of his raise on turn and almost PSB on river looked to me like JT 80% of the time trying to extract the most value once he figured out I had a very strong hand. Is folding too nitty there? Can he play sets that way knowing that JT is not in my range? I thought 3betting the turn was a big spew this deep even if I had outs.
Let me know how you would play the turn and river.
PokerStars – $200+$15|20/40 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 246 BB (VPIP: 12.96, PFR: 11.84, 3Bet Preflop: 7.58, Hands: 164)
UTG: 250 BB
UTG+1: 241 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
UTG+2: 250 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
MP: 250 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)
MP+1: 249.5 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (CO): 236.5 BB
BTN: 257.5 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
SB: 239 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q
Q
fold, fold, [color=red]UTG+2 raises to 3 BB[/color], fold, fold, [color=red]Hero raises to 6 BB[/color], fold, fold, fold, UTG+2 calls 3 BB
Flop: (13.5 BB, 2 players) Q
7 9
UTG+2 checks, [color=red]Hero bets 8 BB[/color], UTG+2 calls 8 BB
Turn: (29.5 BB, 2 players) 8
UTG+2 checks, [color=red]Hero bets 15 BB[/color], [color=red]UTG+2 raises to 46.5 BB[/color], Hero calls 31.5 BB
River: (122.5 BB, 2 players) A
[color=red]UTG+2 bets 100 BB[/color], fold
[spoil]UTG+2 wins 122.5 BB
[/spoil]
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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Bigger pre. To like 9 BB.
I would go bigger on flop as well to around 75-80% of pot.
Turn is std as played(I would bet bigger again though since he has a lot of hands that have equity that will call.).
I mean he is repping one hand(TJ), but that hand makes a lot of sense. Dont see many bluffs in his range unless you have more accurate reads.
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TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I agree with Cody. It’s really hard to see him having any air here, but the question is whether he would do the same with 77, 88, or 99, which is distinctly possible. I think it’s really close on the river but I certainly don’t mind a fold considering how deep we are.
Incidentally, I also think you should go bigger pre. 6bb is not enough, go closer to 8.5 or 9bb.
TPE Pro
August 3, 2011
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I think it is a big mistake to be making sizing so small this early in deep mtts. I would lean toward 3-4x his open for sure. People are flatting tons of hands here and we want to go for max value. Super tough fold on the river. Shows you have discipline which is good but whos to say he is not taking a stab at the A on the river and just trying to outplay you on the flop. It is one hand exactly so not sure if I can make this fold without a good read.
June 1, 2012
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I cant see myself folding this against unknowns in the Sunday million. If we are folding QQs here on the river what are we calling with? JT only which we have like 1% of the time? I cant think of any better hand we would get to the river with besides AAs and who to say he is not doing this with like a flush draw, 2 pairs, or lower sets its a perfectly conceivable for villian to take this line with these hands.
March 8, 2013
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He's probably not even getting to the flop this way with JTo, so he is repping exactly 4 combos of JTs. With our pot odds, that means if he is playing 2 combos of hands we beat this way, we need to call. Some possibilities include — Ad7d,Ad9d,T9s,AdJd,AdTd,77,88,99,KdTd. Now he's probably not playing all of these hands this way, but that's 17 combos right there, so if he's playing 1/8 of them this way it's a call. I would never fold in this spot.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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markconkle said:
He's probably not even getting to the flop this way with JTo, so he is repping exactly 4 combos of JTs. With our pot odds, that means if he is playing 2 combos of hands we beat this way, we need to call. Some possibilities include — Ad7d,Ad9d,T9s,AdJd,AdTd,77,88,99,KdTd. Now he's probably not playing all of these hands this way, but that's 17 combos right there, so if he's playing 1/8 of them this way it's a call. I would never fold in this spot.
mark i agree with your second half but not your first premise. hes getting to the flop with JTo here if he raises it 100% of the time bc we sized our 3b so small. he is folding approx 0% to 3b with this size given how deep we are. JTo a possibility for sure.
problem is its a random and there are definitely under set possibbilities here that play the same way. even a random wouldnt think u have JTo here so could conceivably play a set this way without fear of losing to a straight. an A on the riv seems good for you/bad for him, so his bet size is still indicative of someone trying to go for max value with a set (alas, also a straight), but i dont see how im folding.
i like 3betting bigger pre for sure, and yet again i categorically disagree with anything DannyN13 says. dude is a newfie and newfies cant be trusted
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