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Top pair whole way (KK) + turned flush draw = unsure whether to bet or bluff catch
derSchwartz
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September 2, 2014 - 12:21 pm
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Good morning TPE, hope all is well.

Here is a hand I played a few weeks ago from a $10 turbo, early on at 60/120/12. I have most of a starting stack and the villain slightly less than that. He's new to me but has been opening 43/15 and has already called a C=bet twice in a row and called a resteal once.

Merge Network $500 Gtd – [Turbo, Deep] (78570918-1) No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t60.00/t120.00 Blinds + t12.00 – 7 players – View hand 2569876
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

pokerjokerz123 (): BB = 43.3, t5198
Hero (BB): BB = 37.6, t4514
Aussteiger13rockets (): BB = 49.2, t5909
thesolman7 (): BB = 75.5, t9064
ohwowrlly (): BB = 52.4, t6289
TheRollestonian (): BB = 74.3, t8922
dpaynter (Button): BB = 32.7, t3927

Pre Flop: (t264) Hero is BB with K of spades K of diamonds
4 folds, dpaynter raises to t240.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to t600.00, dpaynter calls t360
 

Flop: (t1344) Q of hearts 3 of spades 8 of spades (2 players)

I find this to be a pretty good Cbet spot, especially since he has called two Cbets. He also has tons of queens in his range.

Hero bets t650.00, dpaynter calls t650

Turn: (t2644) 9 of spades (2 players)

I feel similar to a spot I posted about last week, where a flopped open ender gained top pair on the turn. Except in that hand I was very possibly smashed on an extremely wet flop and turn.

Here the board was drier on the flop and became wet because of 3 to a suit.  Here I have the flush draw and an overpair (misspoke in the title) with only some danger of a backdoor straight. It's possible he has JT or a made flush but I can't be too afraid of that. It's still likely he has a pair of queens, but the spades kind of kill my action and I am unsure of how often a pair of queens will bet into me.

Part of what's more difficult about this hand is that I am out of position and have less information.

Hero?

Thanks for reading.

Kalculater
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September 2, 2014 - 7:33 pm
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I dont think you are ever ‘ultra’ smashed as hands that do have you in bad shape, we have good equity against (sets, 2pr, even straights we have decent equity).

I find this is a clear bet for me as he can still call with alot worse like QsX (Q spade and TP), Q with a spade kicker, paired 9 on the turn with some of his straight draws on flop and maybe even a bare As if he is really loose preflop and floating IP.

If we are to be raised to our double barrel this would be a much harder spot. I think our hand is a little too strong to bet fold, but we could fold some/most rivers if he was to raise turn and barrel river.

Foucault

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September 2, 2014 - 7:42 pm
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Think of it this way: you need to build three ranges, a betting range, a check-folding range, and a check-notfolding range (this could be either a single check-raise or a single check-call range, or one of each). What kinds of hands are best for each action and why?

Here’s a hint: the best hands for betting are those that can either induce calls/raises from hands against which they are big favorites or that can get hands that have a lot of equity to fold. Do you see either of those things happening in this case?

derSchwartz
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September 2, 2014 - 8:27 pm
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Thanks for the responses.

In response to Foucault.

Bear with me because I may say or ask obvious things.

I think check/folding is out of the question without a read.  (right?)

I think by betting small (and calling shoves) I can get calls from a pair of queens and shoves from draws if I bet small.  It's kind of a tight fit with the pot about the size of his whole stack, so I may have to bet like 800. 

But I also think a pair of queens can possibly bet, maybe even big if I check here (do you guys think it can?) and a lot of draws or bluffs can work in my favor as well.

For example I think JJ and TT will both fold to my bets on the turn, but they may bet if I check.  Air hands without a spade will never call a bet but may decide to fire out.

Kalculater
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September 2, 2014 - 10:02 pm
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I think check/folding is definitely out of the question here.

 

Alot of your other comments are villain dependent. For myself, readless I would not be holding TT or JJ on this turn spot as I would be either 4bet shoving or click back/calling 5b preflop given the stack sizes and positions. I think if you check here the standard villain is going to check back a fair amount of the time with hands he would call a bet with (Qx with a spade, 8x,9x, straight draws). It really depends on his calling range on the turn vs how often he is going to bluff. Something that would be interesting to try to quantify.

 

I like your comment as to the sizing, lets give him enough rope to shove over our bet.

 

May take a look at the mathematics later when I have some spare time.

hawkeyeK9
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September 4, 2014 - 4:39 pm
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I like check/calling turn to induce a bet and not make them fold to a two barrel. Then lead river for value, you could check/call river if you are really uncertain and want showdown with a great hand.

jacobsharktank
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September 4, 2014 - 6:13 pm
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Foucault said:

Think of it this way: you need to build three ranges, a betting range, a check-folding range, and a check-notfolding range (this could be either a single check-raise or a single check-call range, or one of each). What kinds of hands are best for each action and why?

Here's a hint: the best hands for betting are those that can either induce calls/raises from hands against which they are big favorites or that can get hands that have a lot of equity to fold. Do you see either of those things happening in this case?

Since we're talking about a low spr situation here, I think our only bet size would be a shove. I don't mean to do someone elses work, particularly if I do it wrong, but I'm here to learn, so here's my guess.

 

The pot is 2644 and effective stack behind is 2677. The parts of our range strong enough (in my mind) to induce are QQ, 88, 99, AKss AJss ATss, JTss, KQss, QJss, perhaps AsAx (15 combos)

 

Hands that are still strong and need to protect their equity/get value from worse are  KK, AQ, KQ, the remaining AA. (33 combos)

 

The hands that have outs to win are AsKx AxKs AsJx. (12 combos)

 

I think that means I should move some of these around to protect those ranges. Maybe that means moving all of the KK and AA combos over to induce, or moving the AsQx hands to the check/calling range. I'm a little fuzzy on that part. 

derSchwartz
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September 5, 2014 - 11:00 pm
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Thanks for the post jacob .. It was helpful for me to see your range building.  I've done much more putting opponents on ranges than I have done creating ranges of hands with which I would make certain moves.

Excellent input.

Foucault

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September 6, 2014 - 8:40 am
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jacobsharktank said:

Foucault said:

Think of it this way: you need to build three ranges, a betting range, a check-folding range, and a check-notfolding range (this could be either a single check-raise or a single check-call range, or one of each). What kinds of hands are best for each action and why?

Here's a hint: the best hands for betting are those that can either induce calls/raises from hands against which they are big favorites or that can get hands that have a lot of equity to fold. Do you see either of those things happening in this case?

Since we're talking about a low spr situation here, I think our only bet size would be a shove. I don't mean to do someone elses work, particularly if I do it wrong, but I'm here to learn, so here's my guess.

 

The pot is 2644 and effective stack behind is 2677. The parts of our range strong enough (in my mind) to induce are QQ, 88, 99, AKss AJss ATss, JTss, KQss, QJss, perhaps AsAx (15 combos)

 

Hands that are still strong and need to protect their equity/get value from worse are  KK, AQ, KQ, the remaining AA. (33 combos)

 

The hands that have outs to win are AsKx AxKs AsJx. (12 combos)

 

I think that means I should move some of these around to protect those ranges. Maybe that means moving all of the KK and AA combos over to induce, or moving the AsQx hands to the check/calling range. I'm a little fuzzy on that part. 

Very nice job, Jacob. I haven't looked at this in-depth, but off the top of my head I'd shift a few things around. It seems like you are using raw hand strength rather than fold equity and equity vs bluffing range to determine which hands to induce with. I think it's very possible that KsK is a better check-calling hand than a set, because when it's ahead it's more likely to be way ahead and has little to fear from a free card and little to gain by shoving and getting a fold.

I'm not sure whether it's good to check all flush combos either. I'd be most inclined to check the nuts and shove lower flushes, if I decided I needed them in the shoving range.

Again, really nice work here, I am just fiddling with a few things, but I imagine your post was very helpful to a lot of people.

bennymacca
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September 16, 2014 - 6:00 am
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listened to this hand on the latest podcast, was a decent discussion.

btw bigdog you need to refrain from saying “literally every time” because it makes you sound a little silly when you qualify that later by saying of course he can check back here etc.

one question in this hand – can we bet more on the flop? if villian is a fish, his calling range should be fairly static no matter what sizing we choose. so i think if we bet 850-900 here instead of 650, it will make pot 3200 or so and effective stacks 2300.

then you have lots of options
it becomes much easier to shove the turn if we want to as effective stacks are only 2/3 pot.
we can also check and villain is much more likely to try and desperation shove
we can check and if villain checks back we still have both of the above options on the river

thoughts?

derSchwartz
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September 16, 2014 - 10:38 am
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Thanks for the podcast discussion guys.  

I appeciate Casey's confident note that a check/shove would be good next time this happens.  But it was also great to hear the pros disagree about aspects of the hand (not to mention the dispute over who holds the lead pro baton).

Sorry the format was confusing, but looks like you guys were able to figure out my position and such.  I'll go ahead and edit in the appropraite pieces of info. 

As suggested, I took away the result of the hand, which I did originally put (subtly) in my second post.  But as of now that line has been deleted.

In response to bennamacca,

That's a good question about 850 on the flop .. I guess I wasn't so sure if he would in fact call a Cbet of any size .. probably felt I didn't have the read for it?  I didn't want to push him off hands with small value on a semi-dry board, but found him sticky enough to call the usual half pot.  It's a good suggestion though for sure.  I don't know the answer.

NeverAA
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September 17, 2014 - 12:59 pm
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All thoughts are great 🙂 I think I agree with Benny here. betting a good size will at least give us a better idea about what the opponent has. If he calls this bet, he most likely has a q + draw and we can certainly check/shove.

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