Thoughts on all streets please? There was a huge discussion on skype with many different points brought up.
July 20, 2012
agree with others that I would b/f this flop. His raise looks super nutty here, it's a dry board and I don't think he is bluffing on an A high flop this early against that action so you are behind most of the time. If you really insist on looking this guy up then it is going to cost you your stack and you can see that already on the flop so just give up here. This would be kind of ugly with AK, with A8o it's an easy decision for me.
June 3, 2012
I'm bet/folding this flop mostly because this guy has min raised a c-bet and a call. It would be very weird taking this line as a bluff because he is not trying to scare anyone out with that sizing. On a board this dry, I would expect him to show up with AQ/66/A6 a ton of the time. If he's the type to overvalue top pair hands, we don't beat too many of those either. So against his value range we will be way behind with not too much chance to improve except for our backdoor flush draw or two pair (which still may not be good).
Another interesting spot is your turn decision. Peeling the flop isn't the worst to maybe pick up a flush draw or an 8, but that turn didn't help us at all and he's betting half pot to set up a river shove, so I definitely want to deciding on either calling him down all the way or not. If we think we are ahead of some bluff, we will likely still be ahead on the river as well. If we aren't planning to call a river bet/shove, I think we should save ourselves the 3600 chips on the turn as well, since almost no rivers will improve our hand if he has one of the hands in his value range.
Some reads on villain would definitely help with the hand analysis as well btw.
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