March 29, 2016
Pre I would make your sizing a little bit bigger than 2x, like 2.3x, especially given stack depth.
On the turn Villain is repping strong hand,like a set,2 pair or 56,when he doesn’t want either of flush draws to complete. So for me, V has a better hand than yours or is completely bluffing.
For that reason I love your check on the river. If he is bluffing, you can get the value only by bluff catching.
If he is stronger, you can minimize your loss (its cheaper to call his bet than raise and call check-raise).
June 6, 2017
Hi there,
I would definitely bet the turn for value. I think if we bet the turn we find out exactly where we are in that hand. With your read I would expect him to call his draws as well as weaker Js, 89s, 78s so we get value from that hands.
When he has a monster here he’s going to raise you. I would not expect him doing this with his draws. When he raises big, I think you can comfortably fold against this villain. When he makes a small raise you can call and see the river. He’s probably not the guy who bluffs on the River (regardless of the rivercard). When he bets here pretty big it’s an easy fold.
When get called I bet small for Value on the river. I think he would never bluffraise here but look you up with weaker Jacks and even a pair of 8s, 9s, Ts.
Some thoughts when check the turn: When he is weak what hands call the flop and bet that turn? Is he betting a weaker J here? His sets he would have raised on the flop. When he bets (for a weak villain): 55 and 67 this hands I would expect him to bet bigger (just a guess).
Now when I go through the hand I think his bet is most likely a weaker J (given the action he could bet KJ, QJ for value), even a pair of 8 (89, A8, K8), 99, TT what he’s not sure what to do with (especially when you frequently Cbet).
I do think when he is on a draw he wants to see a free Rivercard and checks.
I haven’t looked at the results yet, I hope I’m not way off here :o)
PS: Question: You wrote you are blocking the Ace Nutflush that’s why you check that turn. I don’t understand how that affected your turn-decision. Can you help me out here? In that situation I don’t even think about that, maybe I should. Thanks in advance.
May 1, 2016
sw179 said
PS: Question: You wrote you are blocking the Ace Nutflush that’s why you check that turn. I don’t understand how that affected your turn-decision. Can you help me out here? In that situation I don’t even think about that, maybe I should. Thanks in advance.
I’ll help also explain here.
Essentially, when there’s an EP raise and a call in MP, a lot of the hands V calls with PF are Axs of diamonds. A lot of those hands will call the flop, too, just like here. So V range has a lot of Axs of diamonds. V doesn’t have nearly as many Kxs of diamonds or Qxs of diamonds. Probably only down to Kd9d at the worst, and Qd9d. So with almost holding the Ad, the amount of flush draws V can have are significantly reduced.
A check on the turn might be preferred with the Ad because it’s more likely V has a stronger hand since a lot of his flush draws are gone.
Hope that helps!
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I think versus a villain you’ve identified as weak, you might be over-thinking this one. Just go for three streets with top pair top kicker and expect to get called down way too light. Most weak villains don’t bluff enough and call too much.
Side note: preflop sizing doesn’t make a massive difference here, but I would imagine smaller is probably better. That said, I’m not sure if I’d scale down to a minraise. I’d go something like 2.1x or 2.2x, then 2.3-2.4 from a couple of positions further along.
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