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Top Pair, Gut Shot and Flush Draw-Call Shove or Fold?
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January 21, 2016 - 4:16 pm
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Sorry the converter doesn’t work for me.

26 players left, pays through 8th so still far off from the bubble. Villain has been very aggressive but not a winning player. I flop top pair, a gut-shot and flush draw. Would have raised the button in normal circumstances, but this has been a very flatty table who like to see flops. When he goes all in my instincts tell me he has 87. I even say it out loud. 

This is probably fairly obvious for most players but I’m still questioning my game. Thanks in advance.

***** WSOP.com Hand History for Game 472616223 *****
$400/$800 Blinds No Limit Holdem – *** 21 01 2016 19:03:15
Tournament #710769 $4.55 + $0.45 – Table #9 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: pitacat ( $49,837 )
Seat 3: MntlDFshNSea ( $34,239 )
Seat 4: BIGWORM21 ( $43,997 )
Seat 5: ACEAAA01 ( $11,099 )
Seat 7: Emerald10 ( $36,328 )
Seat 9: jets91 ( $65,674 )
Seat 10: bigmike79 ( $66,091 )
BIGWORM21 posts ante [$100]
Emerald10 posts ante [$100]
pitacat posts ante [$100]
MntlDFshNSea posts ante [$100]
bigmike79 posts ante [$100]
jets91 posts ante [$100]
ACEAAA01 posts ante [$100]
MntlDFshNSea posts small blind [$400]
BIGWORM21 posts big blind [$800]
** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to Hero [ Tspade, Jspade ]
ACEAAA01 folds
Emerald10 calls [$800]
jets91 folds
bigmike79 folds
hero calls [$800]
MntlDFshNSea calls [$400]
BIGWORM21 checks
** Dealing flop ** [ 7spade, 8spade, Theart ]
MntlDFshNSea checks
BIGWORM21 bets [$2,925]
Emerald10 folds
hero raises [$7,200]
MntlDFshNSea folds
BIGWORM21 raises [$40,172] and is all in

Hero?

Foucault

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January 21, 2016 - 4:43 pm
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Easy call, you’re a favorite against an overpair, but I’m not wild about the flop raise. Just because you like your hand doesn’t mean raising is the best way to proceed. Also calling pre-flop should be your standard with these stacks, this is a hand that plays well deeper, especially when you have position.

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January 21, 2016 - 5:11 pm
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I always feel like I’m playing weak when I just call and flat, I need to get over that. 

I figured it was an easy call, which I made, but asking myself…was that a donk call? The runout wasn’t so great but I just wanted to make sure that I made the right decision in game. 

I could have flatted his bet, but when/if he shoves on a brick turn, then what? Would it still be a call with one card to come? 

Just questioning different ways the hand could have played. I think I would have these questions whether or not I hit my draw.

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January 21, 2016 - 5:32 pm
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I actually don’t hate raising the flop, the more I think about it, but you need to consider your plan if V shoves BEFORE you raise (though in this case I think it’s an easy call).

“Playing weak” isn’t a thing. It’s something a lot of people seem to worry about, and it sounds unpleasant, but really you just need to be thinking in terms of expected value. It’s true that by not bluffing with good bluffing hands, or not value betting strong made hands, you will be giving up expected value, so I guess those things could be considered “too weak”. But in this case, is your raise a value bet? Is it a bluff? I think we can say it’s the former, as you are actually a favorite against overpairs, but the fact that there’s not a really clear answer is why I think you can consider calling as well.

As for what to do if V bets again, you get to make a decision, with the added information about what the turn card is. Of course so does he, and in this case I think that info will help him more than you, as all of your draws are very face-up. That’s part of the argument for raising flop as well.

But think of it this way: if V has a better hand, raise-calling flop is going to lose you just as much money as call-calling flop and turn. The first may feel better, because you took an aggressive action and had two cards to come, but the end result is the same.

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January 21, 2016 - 5:40 pm
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Can’t ever fold here once you raise, but as Andrew says, the raise isn’t a necessity.

Don’t use questions or phrases like “was that a donk call?” – they don’t mean anything. What’s the definition of a ‘donk call’? How unprofitable does something have to be before it qualifies? It’s an emotionally-charged phrase that ends up being a way to berate yourself and add emotional significance to the situation, making it harder for yourself to actually figure out the answer. As soon as you frame it as either “donk call” or “not a donk call”, your brain is going to look for reasons not to think you made a donk call, so it’s going to obscure the actual answer.

Let’s say you flat his bet…why would he shove a brick turn? He’d probably have around 3x the pot left in his stack. He’s much more likely to just bet a normal sizing, leaving you a much easier decision. You’re fixating on an unlikely scenario that is once again obscuring the actual decision at hand – by all means, plan for the turn, but if you think it’s that likely that he’ll shove a brick turn, then don’t let it paralyze you, just make a plan for what you’re going to do, and follow through with it.

Finally, if your instincts told you he had 87 exactly, you need to work on your instincts. Your instincts should be putting your opponent on a range of hands, not one individual hand. Here, you’re solidly ahead of the villain’s range, and I imagine you’d still be in very good shape on most turn cards too. Focus on evaluating your opponent’s range.

You didn’t really make a significant strategic mistake in this hand – instead, your biggest mistakes were mental game ones. Your thinking is clouded by a variety of judgments and emotions that make it harder for you to make the right decision in the moment. I’d recommend getting yourself a copy of Jared Tendler’s books, The Mental Game of Poker 1 + 2, and fixing your mental game flaws before you commit to the belief that there are flaws in your strategic approach. There may be flaws in both, but do your homework first. 🙂

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January 21, 2016 - 6:58 pm
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My mental game IS my biggest leak. I’m way too hard on myself and it clouds my judgement. 

I just ordered the first book in the series.

Thanks guys

SIGABA
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January 23, 2016 - 11:50 pm
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Here’s a little vid of a range that I constructed for villain in this hand.  Copy and paste the gyazo link below.  And I think the range I gave him was a little tight.  You were over 60% against that range.  I like the raise / call it off on the flop.  Thanks for the post 🙂

https://gyazo.com/15acc561296a69cb9452614978345eea

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