This was played in a $3 on 888. 90 remaining, 40 get paid, I am in 18th. Stacks are shallow and generally the big stacks have been avoiding each other and picking off the shorties. No HUD stats on villain but seems a typical tight aggressive and nothing unusual to report. If anyone is paying attention to my image I have been active: over 68 hands I have won 6 out of 7 showdowns, and another 10 pots without a showdown. So 16 pots out of 68 at a full ring table.

I start the hand with 21000 in UTG+1, we are at 250/500. I have KdTs and make it 1,055. Villain is in the big blind with 15000 and flats. I don't think he will be flatting me super wide given my position. I am assuming all broadways, pocket pairs up to TT, maybe 76s+.

Flop comes 2dTd9c. I cbet 1255, and villain raises to 6605. Pretty big re-raise. I assume I either have to shove or fold here, as villain has indicated he wants to play for stacks now half his money in the middle – or at least that is what he wants me to think.

Thinking about how Foucault categorises range reading (monsters/marginal/draws/air) I think villain is very weighted towards draws.

If he has a monster (sets, two pair, overpairs) and he is semi-competent, he should have seen I am aggressive, and just flatted to let me barrel. Or at least raised smaller if he wants to protect against draws but is still trying to get value. Maybe he raises T9 here for protection but again not sure this large. I don't think he has overpairs because of his flat pre.

If he has a marginal hand, Tx, 9x, 33-88, I think he likely just flats and re-evaluates on the turn while he still has room to fold on bad cards and continued aggression. 

Which makes me think he has a straight draw, a flush draw, or maybe a combination of the two. I think QJ is his most likely holding here, against which I am a slighty favourite unless they are diamonds. So from a chip EV point of view it is probably a call?

But what about the tournament position? I can fold and still have a very good stack, without taking the risk of what is likely just a slightly positive Chip EV play.

So I guess my two questions:

• Is shoving a Chip EV+ play?
• Is shoving a 'Tournament EV+' play?