Home
(0 votes) 
June 2, 2013
Offline
Hello!
No reads on V! He donk bet very fast OTT, not sure if was strong or weak that…
Two tables, just get ITM, new to the table.
Merge, $6.60 Buy-in, Turbo (1,500/3,000 blinds, 300 ante) No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: 72,084 (24 bb)
BB: 48,179 (16.1 bb)
MP1: 24,214 (8.1 bb)
MP2: 10,116 (3.4 bb)
MP3: 14,414 (4.8 bb)
Hero (CO): 85,378 (28.5 bb)
BTN: 44,301 (14.8 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A
Q
3 folds, Hero raises to 6,000, BTN folds, SB calls 4,500, BB calls 3,000
Flop: (20,100) A
T
J (3 players)
SB bets 10,050, BB folds, Hero calls 10,050
Turn: (40,200) 9 (2 players)
SB bets 20,100, Hero folds
Since V did not 3bet pre flop, i give him a range OTT: TT-88, AQs-A8s, KTs+, QJs, JTs, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QJo, JTo, thought on this?
OTF I think is pretty normal to call only.
OTT hero have OESD + TP, I was unsure on what to do, a lot of V´s hands hit pretty hard and have me beat, but there is some that didn´t… I don´t like to call and reevaluate river, so I was between call or shove turn. Is there a better line here I didn´t see?
Thanks!!!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Offline
I don’t think shoving the turn does anything for you. When you’re ahead, you’re mostly way ahead, which means you don’t gain much from V’s folds, and when behind, you’re far enough behind that putting more money in is pretty bad for you. So, the choice should be between call and fold, and with an OESD, I’d lean strongly towards call. I think you can pretty confidently fold if you don’t make a straight on the river.
Your turn range seems a bit optimistic. You really think he plays 88 and 99 this way? The middle pair + gutter hands seem unlikely to me as well.
May 19, 2016
Offline
Just got scalded by Foucault for not putting stats and statistics down so will do so to the best of my ability. That way I’ll get used to doing it and maybe learn when a Pro comments on our comments.
So we don’t have a big standing at table as the only thing we have going for us is our stack. Unless they know you as a good, great or pro this adds to image.
I am using Poker Stove for equity calc’s.
Pre-flop action:
Folds to Hero (CO) raises 2 X BB
BTN fold
SB: Called
BB: called
Pot: 20,100K
I put both SB and BB on a very wide range or 68% of hands or (22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 53s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o )
Which is a lot of hands they could be holding, and wasn’t much of a jump for them to call a 2X raise.
Hero has a 47.644% equity in the hand at the given ranges of opponents.
Opponents both have a 26.178 % equity.
Hero wins 46.29% of time where as V’s win 25.11% of time in over a billion hands
I believe the 2 X bet hero made was good, would have like to see a 3 X BB with Aqs
Flop Action: A 10 J
SB: bets 3.35 X BB
BB: folds
Hero: Calls
Pot: 20,100K + 20,100K = 40,200K
I like to er on the side of caution at a new table and V is also unknown, so I’ll drop V’s range down to 45% or { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
This is still a lot of hands to be holding, our equity has almost doubled.
Hero has an equity of 77.853%
V has equity of 22.147%
This is excellent equity for us.
We have top pair, and a runner runner straight and flush draw
I would have liked to see Hero 3-bet this to at least: 30,150k + original V bet. This would have made V go through a meaningful decision. However I must admit this may be one of my leaks.
Just reminded myself of Andrew’s vid. Hand reading, although I didn’t write it all down here I thought about it above and below, although it didn’t change much in either place.
Monsters: Trips, Straight
Med. Str. Hands: Top Pair w/top kicker, two pair
Draws/air: straight draw, flush draw, bottom pair
Has lots more in the Draws/air row than others according to the range we put V on.
Turn action: 9
SB bets ½ pot again.
Hero folds.
Pot before fold: 60,300K
I can only narrow the V’s range down to about 40% on the turn
Again Hero’s equity is still very high: 69.883%
V’s equity: 30.117%
Hero has too much equity to fold to SB at this point, with the 8 outs to an open ended straight, that we just got on the turn. Those outs alone give us a 17% chance to get the straight
4.88:1 outs ratio, verses 4:1 pot odds ratio (including our call) makes it profitable to call and fold if we don’t straighten out.
June 2, 2013
Offline
Foucault said
1 – … I think you can pretty confidently fold if you don’t make a straight on the river.2 – … Your turn range seems a bit optimistic. You really think he plays 88 and 99 this way? The middle pair + gutter hands seem unlikely to me as well.
1 – I didn´t like this at the time because was almost half of my stack in the pot, ~44% i guess, and leave me with 16bb if I fold river. Is a good call with 8 outs when V is probably blocking some Kings? I don´t think he is on 8x anymore. Should I assume Queen to be a dirty out too? You fold for a Q OTR? What about an Ace?
2 – Yeah, I really open his range for this equity calculation, at the time I put V on two pair or str8, not even str8 draws, maybe a set of 9s OTT, but AA JJ and TT I expect a 3bet pre flop from V with his 24bbs.
June 2, 2013
Offline
JupiterRocks said
…
Flop Action: A 10 J
…
I like to er on the side of caution at a new table and V is also unknown, so I’ll drop V’s range down to 45% or { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
…
You give this 45% of V´s range for a donk bet OTF? Seems too much for me actually.
JupiterRocks said
…
I would have liked to see Hero 3-bet this to at least: 30,150k + original V bet. This would have made V go through a meaningful decision. However I must admit this may be one of my leaks.
…
I think this reraise OTF will isolate hero versus better hands. Similar to the idea Andrew said about my turn shove above.
JupiterRocks said
…
I can only narrow the V’s range down to about 40% on the turnAgain Hero’s equity is still very high: 69.883%
V’s equity: 30.117%
…
40% range on my equity software is 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, Again this is too much for me to put V on, I think way smaller when he donk bet again. On my first analise I didn´t calculate runner runner flush for V, he may bet some of those I guess.
JupiterRocks said
…
Hero has too much equity to fold to SB at this point, with the 8 outs to an open ended straight, that we just got on the turn. Those outs alone give us a 17% chance to get the straight4.88:1 outs ratio, verses 4:1 pot odds ratio (including our call) makes it profitable to call and fold if we don’t straighten out.
I think is 3:1 for 25% to breakeven, but I need to study this math, I haven´t since last year 
So I am not sure about this one.
You assume Q to be a dirty out? What about another A?
May 19, 2016
Offline
JupiterRocks said
…
Flop Action: A 10 J
…
I like to er on the side of caution at a new table and V is also unknown, so I’ll drop V’s range down to 45% or { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
…
Almo said: You give this 45% of V´s range for a donk bet OTF? Seems too much for me actually.
We just got sat at the table, we have no reads on V. Is it really a donk bet or something more sophisticated? Which is what it seems to be to me, as he was chip leader before you got to table, and then again after this hand.
JupiterRocks said
…
I would have liked to see Hero 3-bet this to at least: 30,150k + original V bet. This would have made V go through a meaningful decision. However I must admit this may be one of my leaks.
…
Almo said: I think this reraise OTF will isolate hero versus better hands. Similar to the idea Andrew said about my turn shove above.
The little part after “however” is key, I know this is a weak spot for me and am working on it thanks to you, Andrew and others here on TPE. 
JupiterRocks said
…
I can only narrow the V’s range down to about 40% on the turnAgain Hero’s equity is still very high: 69.883%
V’s equity: 30.117%
…
Almo said: 40% range on my equity software is 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, Again this is too much for me to put V on, I think way smaller when he donk bet again. On my first analise I didn´t calculate runner runner flush for V, he may bet some of those I guess.
On another post I narrowed the fault line to a fissure, I may be over compensating, but I don’t think so. He could easily have Q8s/o as a meriad of other hands that smacked his hand, not to mention many more that completely missed in the same range.
JupiterRocks said
…
Hero has too much equity to fold to SB at this point, with the 8 outs to an open ended straight, that we just got on the turn. Those outs alone give us a 17% chance to get the straight4.88:1 outs ratio, verses 4:1 pot odds ratio (including our call) makes it profitable to call and fold if we don’t straighten out.
Almo said: I think is 3:1 for 25% to breakeven, but I need to study this math, I haven´t since last year So I am not sure about this one.
I’m still sketchy on the math myself, but am working on it diligently. I think I’m correct. I was doing this in open office at the time to avoid loss of content, then CTL/c and CTL/v’d. then noticed Andrew had posted this:
I’d lean strongly towards call. I think you can pretty confidently fold if you don’t make a straight on the river.
which made me feel good about last part of statement.
oooo, cookies are done,
Regards,
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
37 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
