Tough spot, but it may be a little results orientated to say don’t bet the turn? If he has a lot of draws in his range you want to charge them on the turn when you’re ahead surely?
Definitely a puke spot on the river though, need to be right 33% of the time so I’ll try and do some range work when I get back from work. Did he seem to have a normal BB defend range against the button?
August 22, 2016
If I understand correctly, you are assuming that this player is a reg because you saw him at another table? I see you don’t use a hud, but since you have HM2 can you see your hand history and see how many hands you have played against this opponent?(I use PT4 and know nothing about HM2) That would help you get a better idea if they are a reg or not. Also, when you are done your session you can use a tracking website (sharkscope, poker pro labs, official poker rankings) to see this opponents results to help get a clearer picture of whether they are a reg or a rec player.
How did this player accumulate such a large stack? Have you been playing with this opponent for a while or were you just seated with them recently? Seeing how the opponent accumulated their stack can be beneficial information.
I don’t think many regs donk bet the flop. If a reg has something strong on the flop, I think they would elect to check raise. So I am starting to think that this player might not be a reg. When people donk bet into me, I like to reraise them especially when I have something even if it’s middle pair here to keep up the preflop aggression because if they are semi-bluffing a draw they will probably fold. Since the 6h completes a straight draw I might be more inclined to try and just check down to SD. I would definitely fold here to the 5d on the river.
almofadinhas said
Why do you think this is results orientated? I think V would dbet turn if he has draws, not sure what will check call, there is no clear target for me I guess. What do you think?
I don´t use any HUD, at the time this guy was at other table also, and I recognize his nickname, so I thougth he was a regular, above average, field average. So I would guess he is not that tight defending his BB, maybe not very wide also.
I suppose because I think there is a good argument for betting the turn when checked to, as I still can’t really puzzle out his line. I think OTT he calls J10, flush draws, and possibly some gut-shots. He calls with better T’s, strangely played sets (Not sure why he’d donk flop with a set) and maybe some overpairs? But even without doing the maths it feels like you have a range advantage as played. Therefore, I’m worried that subconsciously the reason you think you shouldn’t bet turn is because of his river bet, which is very hard to predict and I would not expect to see very often.
I would also really recommend getting a HuD next time you get a score – even if you use some very simple stats it can really help with your decision making so it pays off quickly. I mainly use pre-flop standard stats, c-bet % and fold to cbet % and it helps me to make some exploitive adjustments I would not otherwise be able to make.
July 7, 2012
From reading this I put him pretty much specifically on 2 hands 6c7c or 6c5c. He donks the flop with v good equity and hopes to take it down, but meets resistance. He turns a pair so has showdown value and decides to check/call (personally I would lead again but this is a $4.55 MTT so nothing is’standard’). On the river he either made a str8 or 2 pair and leads again as he doesnt want a Tx hand to check behind.
The bet timing is a big factor in this as well, if he snap clicked the 1/2 pot btn on the river I would be more inclined to a call because it just looks like a lazy attempt at a bluff. If he took a few seconds to think about it I’d be more inclined towards fold.
The only other hand I can think of that might take this weird line is Ax clubs which includes A7 obviously and now I’m thinking more T7 is also a good candidate as well.
Rambling on a bit here but without a specific note or read on the player that would indicate he is a frequent bluffer (bluffing river is a very different proposition to bluffing flop and turn) I think I would be folding a large percentage of the time.
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