View Plans & Pricing

If you are signed in and are seeing this message, please be sure you have selected a user name in My Profile. The forum requires it.
A A A
Search

— Forum Scope —




— Match —





— Forum Options —





Minimum search word length is 3 characters - maximum search word length is 84 characters

Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 Topic Rating: 0 (0 votes) 
sp_TopicIcon
Too thin? WSOP Circuit 6 max
joesmoe88
Grinding Micros
Members
Forum Posts: 74
Member Since:
April 8, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
1
December 18, 2014 - 6:20 pm
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

Ok so this hand occurred the other day in the AC WSOPc circuit event at Harrahs. Villain has been pretty splashy and appears to have stationed off a few times over the first 30 min or so. This hand occured during the 2nd level at 50/100. I have 7k to start the hand. Villain opens utg to 200 and it folds to sb who flats with 2k behind. I make it 700 with KK in the BB. Utg calls and sb folds and we see a flop of q74rainbow. I lead 700 and villain calls. Turn is a 5 and I lead again for 1500 with about 4k behind. Villain again calls. River is a 6. Pretty bad river but the real question is what does villains range look like. We have only been at the same table for 30 minutes or so but I assumed he would get to the river with alot of Qs and possible some medium pairs like 88-JJ. Its possible he could show up with some suited connectors like 87s or 67s but im not sure those are in his opening range. I could check and fold to a river bet however there is a chance I could get bluffed because my range cant contain any 8s or 3s. His Qs are likely getting checked back as well as all the other hands I beat. I only have a 2/3 pot sized bet left and decide it will look pretty strange if I shove and given this guys tendancy to station off I dont think he folds a Q. I shove. 

Thoughts? Too thin?

jacobsharktank
Florida
Playing The Prelims
Members
Forum Posts: 547
Member Since:
December 24, 2013
sp_UserOfflineSmall Offline
2
December 19, 2014 - 9:47 am
sp_Permalink sp_Print
0

I don't see why he can't show up here with 77 or 44, but even adding that, I think I like check/fold. I don't think villain is showing up with air in this spot, so he'd have to then be the type of player to actually acknowledge his modicum of showdown value is no good and to bluff with it. I don't know how often you see that in a live circuit tourney. I think he's more likely to be check happy with the range you described. If he won't bluff, you get to play tourney life control on this bad river.

If his range is (JQ/KQ/AQ, 88, 99-JJ, 77, 44, QQ), and you think he's calling off all Queens, then he'll have 36 combos of worse hands calling, and 69 hands total. 52% of hands you betting into are calling and losing to you, so it's profitable.

If however, his range loses any queens, it falls to below 50% of his range and becomes unprofitable.

I know you have a 2/3 pot sized bet left, but what about betting something very small and folding to a shove. It may get calls from his 99-JJ if you bet something like 1200 into 6000. This really hinges on him being stationy/rec playery though. But for that sizing, it can increase the hands you beat that call by a significant % of his range, and if he very infrequently bluffs, you can fold. He'd have to not bluff more than 25% of the time, and he'd have at least 6 set combos and then 6 combos of (88). So 3 bluffs. If his range is all these pairs and Queens and no air, then I think you're good. He's just gonna be like “ahhh pot odds” and call.

Forum Timezone: America/New_York

Most Users Ever Online: 2780

Currently Online:
49 Guest(s)

Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)

Top Posters:

bennymacca: 2616

Foucault: 2067

folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133

praetor: 1033

theginger45: 924

P-aire 146: 832

Turbulence: 768

The Riceman: 731

duggs: 591

florianm1: 588

Newest Members:

Tillery999

sdmathis89

ne0x00

adrianvaida2525

Anteeater

Laggro

Forum Stats:

Groups: 4

Forums: 24

Topics: 12705

Posts: 75003

 

Member Stats:

Guest Posters: 1063

Members: 12008

Moderators: 2

Admins: 5

Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos

Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1