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To thin of a value bet otr?
folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
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November 3, 2014 - 11:32 pm
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Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: miker6647 ( $36,772 )
Seat 5: blueplastic ( $99,058 )
Seat 6: london_ace ( $96,250 )
Seat 7: bumerang41 ( $194,923 )
Seat 10: luckboxx86 ( $73,997 )
miker6647 posts ante [$200]
blueplastic posts ante [$200]
bumerang41 posts ante [$200]
london_ace posts ante [$200]
luckboxx86 posts ante [$200]
blueplastic posts small blind [$800]
london_ace posts big blind [$1,600]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ Kdiamond, Tspade ]
bumerang41 folds
luckboxx86 folds
miker6647 folds
blueplastic raises [$3,211]
london_ace calls [$2,411]
** Dealing flop ** [ Jspade, 4club, 2spade ]
blueplastic checks
london_ace checks
** Dealing turn ** [ Theart ]
blueplastic checks
london_ace bets [$3,999]
blueplastic calls [$3,999]
** Dealing river ** [ 9spade]
blueplastic checks
london_ace bets [$8,510]
blueplastic

Hey,

Reads – v seems to be active, they do call often pre with marginal hands they also have r/c with hands like ATo and are capable of floating pretty wide. I did check their stats and they are a winning player , profiting over 8k. So they are pretty decent.

I decided to bet turn because i'm pretty sure i have the best hand here when v checks twice. I think it's very much unlikely Jx will be played like this , i also think most draws will be bet on the flop or at least on the turn.

although the river does complete a flush  and a straight, I'm not to worried about it , i don't think those are in his range. I think he's got very weak hands in their range ,pretty much marginal hands like maybe 55/66 or Ax which they may try to be bluff catching with?

anyhow , do you prefer checking back OTR since our hand does have showdown value OR do you prefer to turn your hand into a bluff here?

i think turning our hand into a bluff is prolly the best imo. when i made this bet on the river , i bet it for thin value which seems kinda weird because i think its unlikely that those pocket pairs will call on such a board…

thoughts?

Cheers.

joesmoe88
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November 4, 2014 - 1:54 am
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Why do you think you need to turn your hand into a bluff? What better hands are you getting to fold? As far as thin value goes, what worse hands do you expect him to call with? Its gonna be pretty hard for you to show up with air here which makes it pretty hard for him to call with A high or small pairs. Seems like a good spot to just go to showdown.

folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
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November 4, 2014 - 9:51 am
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The reason as to why i think i can turn my hand into a bluff is because i don't think v has any strong hands in their range , i think their range is weight more towards marginal/air hands. Also i think our play looks consistant with a hand like KQ or a hand a flush draw which we've checked back on the flop and bet turn with and now bet river with. 

 

I also agree this is a hand to get down to showdown with and i'm not saying checking back is horrible , it's not , but i think better players are capable of turning their hand into a bluff when they've got showdown value.

 

as for thin value , i don't think any worse hands are calling on this board.

NeverAA
High Stakes Shark
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November 4, 2014 - 2:23 pm
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Like you admitted, any worse hands are not calling on this board. I think you should just check it. Sometimes though, when I believe the player is bad and is capable of calling with A high or small pairs, I stick in a very tiny bet on the river for the sake of all the passiveness because looks like this guy has a loose passive style which means they dont lead out, but they call. I would bet around 30% of the pot against a bad player here for value.

Foucault

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November 5, 2014 - 9:50 am
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Your hand is way too good to turn into a bluff. I bet you'll win something like 70% of the time by checking. That means that a bluff has to succeed at an extremely high rate to be better than checking. The fact that you aren't sure whether a bet would be a bluff or a value bet means you ought to check.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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November 5, 2014 - 12:44 pm
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Yeah I totally agree that worse hands are not calling and that my hand is too good to be turned into a bluff.

 

Cheers everyone.

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