nkarapet said

At that point I do not see too much monsters at Villains range. quads 3s (one comb, actually very unlikely since he probably fold 33 pre, but possible), quads 8s (one comb, also not very likely since he might fold it to my CBet), FH 66 (3 comb). AA/KK/AK not in his range (he will 4Bet it almost for sure). He might has pocket pair like 99, TT, JJ, QQ (19 combs) in his range. So I decided that I am ahead here frequently.

I think we can give villain credit for a much wider preflop range. If I raise to 3bb in the CO and face a 3x (or even 4x) 3bet from the small blind, I will be peeling relatively wide at >= 100bb effective. I wouldn’t be folding any pocket pairs, any suited aces, or many suited connectors for that matter. So, in the villain’s seat, I would be continuing on the flop with 22-JJ, A3s, A6s, 86s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 75s, some A-high BDFD and probably some Broadway BDFD floats. I could raise some of those on the flop, but this is the type of board texture where I might have no flop raising range at all.

Once you bet again on the turn, I’ll be dropping my worst pocket pairs (22-55) and all of my BDFD floats. Against an unknown, I’m likely continuing with any 6, the three A8s that flopped BDFD, 86s, 75s/54s OESDs, 77+, and any trips+ hand. With rainbow suits on a low paired board, I’m once again likely to have no raising range in position. As long as your turn bet is large enough that a reasonably sized raise on the river will be for stacks, I can wait to pull the trigger with my best hands. This allows your bluffs to keep betting and keeps your value range as wide as possible.

As you can see, I reach the river with more 8s than you accounted for (2*A8s, 2*86s), both combos of quads, sixes full, and 2 combos of A3s. I’m also likely to have 24 combos of unimproved pocket pairs (77-JJ), and a moderate number of 6s (likely A6s,76s,65s). I’ll also have a few busted draws.

Considering this range, I think QQ is strong enough to value bet, but it’s not a fist-pump situation by any means. My calling range on the river would depend somewhat on any read I might have, but I think I’d be calling ~JJ/TT/A6s as far as hands that you beat. That’s 15 combos. I counted 11 combos of hands that beat QQ. So QQ is strong enough to value bet but, unless you expect villain to pay you off with 99/77/some other combos (or raise some of his best hands on earlier streets), it’s still somewhat thin.

It’s difficult to comment accurately on sizing without knowing exact stacks, but river bet should probably be larger than ~ 40%. I’d prefer something in the 65-75% range. Those %s still apply if you had bet the turn larger.

No matter what size you use, I think the only way to play this river is a bet-fold. Villain is highly unlikely to reach the river with many hands that need to bluff. There are 8 likely combos of straight draws but no reason to think the villain raises all of them. Unless we’re giving them credit for double-floats or turning a weak pair into a bluff, it’s really hard to find enough bluffs that we can afford to pay off their nutted hands. They would be crazy to raise anything worse than our hand for value, so we don’t really need to consider that.

Despite it being expensive and never feeling good to build a big pot and bet-fold the river, that doesn’t mean it isn’t the best way to play your hand. I think we can get enough calls for QQ to highly prefer value betting over either check-calling or check-folding river, but only if we’re disciplined enough to fold once we face a raise.