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(0 votes) 
April 29, 2013
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Merge – (6 max) – Holdem – 5 players
Hero (BTN): 2,970
SB (SB): 3,410
BB (BB): 2,204 (VPIP: 39.07, PFR: 20.92, Flop FCBET 44, Turn FCBET 33, Hands: 476)
UTG (UTG): 4,450
CO (CO): 2,785
SB posts SB 30, BB posts BB 60
Dealt to Hero: 5
6
fold, fold, Hero raises to 160, fold, BB calls 100
Flop (350, 2 players): 7
8 A
BB checks, Hero bets 230, BB calls 230
Turn (810, 2 players): 5
BB checks, Hero ?????
July 3, 2010
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Just check back. Once he calls the flop it's hard to imagine he ever folds to this turn. In fact, he's more likely to raise a turn barrel than he is to fold to one, IMO.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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When contemplating a bluff, it's good to focus on what you'd be trying to make him fold. Your own hand is also a factor, but it shouldn't be the only thing you consider. What hands that call the flop do you expect to fold to a turn bet? Which do you expect to raise? Are there other ways to make your targets fold? For instance, could you check back now and still bluff rivers if you're just trying to make him fold Q8 or something?
April 29, 2013
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Foucalt,
Yeah, those are the kind of questions I need to start asking myself mid-hand.
Hands that I think would call a flop bet (but not c/r or donk lead): AX(one spade max), 99 & 66(one spade), K8-K7, Q8-Q7, JT-J7(one spade max), T9-T6, 96, 86-85, 76-75, 65
“What hands that call the flop do you expect to fold to a turn bet?”
All no spade hands: AX, K8-K7, Q8-Q7, JT-J9 >>>that's about it, so he's continuing with most hands on the turn I think
“Which do you expect to raise?”
All with spades: flushes & straights, AX (2pair), pair+draw (ex A6 with A of spades or 56 with 6 of spades) >>>too many hands are improved by the 5 of spades
“Are there other ways to make your targets fold? For instance, could you check back now and still bluff rivers if you're just trying to make him fold Q8 or something?”
That's possible, but I'd only do it if a 2-3 or K-Q came on the river that wasn't another spade. Most likely if I check the turn, I'd check the river as well, or fold to a bet.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Ambitious to think you're going to get him off of top pair on the turn.
What's so bad about bluffing spade rivers if you check back the turn? He'll probably bet his best ones on the river, so his checking range shouldn't be too flush heavy. I think you can more plausibly represent a rivered spade than a rivered wheel or pair of Queens.
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