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Thought I'd post a NJ online poker hand for you
mikewebb68
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December 20, 2013 - 11:54 pm
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This was from the Bprgata/Party nightly feature 10K. 26 left at the time of this hand, 18 pay. I am 13th in chips. 
 
No HUD my reads on villian is that he flats a lot, so doesn't seem all that competent. No reads other than that. 
 
**** Hand History for Game 5278498 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $100 USD Buy-in Trny:104850210 Level:15  Blinds-Antes(600/1,200 -125) - Friday, December 20, 23:41:37 EST 2013
Table Daily $10K (104850210) Table #6 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 8/9 
Seat 6: DirtyRat ( 88,442 )
Seat 3: SharkEye ( 31,952 )
Seat 1: billjr85 ( 25,520 )
Seat 5: bpeeters ( 25,564 )
Seat 2: cantbeatyou (Hero) ( 35,887 )
Seat 7: durrrr ( 17,340 )
Seat 8: jjfish ( 32,601 )
Seat 4: paradise ( 70,383 )
Trny:104850210 Level:15 
Blinds-Antes(600/1,200 -125)
billjr85 posts ante [125]
cantbeatyou posts ante [125]
SharkEye posts ante [125]
paradise posts ante [125]
bpeeters posts ante [125]
DirtyRat posts ante [125]
durrrr posts ante [125]
jjfish posts ante [125]
jjfish posts small blind [600].
billjr85 posts big blind [1,200].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to cantbeatyou [  As Ks ]
Hero raises [2,400]
SharkEye is all-In  [31,827]
paradise folds
bpeeters folds
DirtyRat folds
durrrr folds
jjfish folds
billjr85 folds
Hero ??????

Thoughts as to his range and as to whether I should call would be greatly appreciated! 
Kalculater
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December 20, 2013 - 11:58 pm
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Call. He can have hands you beat quite easily. He is probably 3bet calling the top of his range here so we can discount them a little bit.

mikewebb68
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December 21, 2013 - 12:04 am
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Thanks. Should add that villian has nearly 27 bbs and I have about 30bbs, just 3 more than him (the hh does not list blinds) It's a big jam. Thus if I lose, I am crippled; if I win, I have a top 5 stack.

BinkInc
Lighting Money On Fire
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December 21, 2013 - 2:01 am
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I agree.. He should be trying to get value from the top of his range. Looks like a 22-88 type of bet.

WackyJuan
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December 21, 2013 - 12:39 pm
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This is a fold for me.  You've only got an A and a K.  Your stack is still sizeable enough to fold and continue on to the next hand.  It does feel like a small-med pp or AK, AQ, but do you really want to risk your tourney life on that?  Wait for a better spot.

icantmtt
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December 21, 2013 - 6:27 pm
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I think small pairs flat so likely he has mid pair or AK he doesn’t want to take post even in position

If you think he plays AQ or AJ you gotta call. Otherwise fold if you think you have an edge on the field

FkCoolers
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December 22, 2013 - 7:03 pm
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Fold. If he's flat happy then his range here should in theory be really strong. 

No need to flip vs. JJ/QQ or something like that. Too high variance based on how you described villan. 

P-aire 146
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December 24, 2013 - 2:16 am
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I'm a lot more FOLD then call vs this monkey.  I think I played with him once or twice already and notice the same as Mike was saying.  hmmmmmmm.

mikewebb68
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December 26, 2013 - 1:38 am
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Interesting, by my count I have 3 voted for fold, 2 for call, and one in between (if range includes A-Q and A-J call, otherwise fold. For the record, I do think villan's range includes A-Q and A-J, so essentially we're tied at 3 votes apiece! Good discussion, thanks guys! I will post results shortly.

rlamanna
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December 26, 2013 - 11:31 am
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Fold. 30bbs is too much to forfeit a post flop edge against a weak player.

markconkle
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December 27, 2013 - 10:24 am
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If you call, the pot is 66454 and it costs you 29427 to call, meaning you need a little over 44.2% to call.  If we put him on a nutted range, he needs to be doing this down to AJ to call.  If he is on a non-nutted range with underpairs, we need him to be doing it with AQ (or basically one non-pair hand) to call.  If he is on just pocket pairs we have to fold.  Shoving 27BB UTG+1 from a flat-happy guy if probably also a pair, so I fold.

 

@rlamanna – you are not only playing against this player — you need to get his chips before someone else does.  If you think you have a preflop edge here, you really need to call.

rlamanna
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December 27, 2013 - 12:57 pm
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It’s NJ. The fields have been weak and this is how I’ve seen 22-AA played. I’m not flipping for 30bbs with somebody I can pick apart post flop. I just didn’t expound on my statement.

P-aire 146
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December 27, 2013 - 9:05 pm
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Like I said earlier…….  I'm prob a fold.  Agree with “rlamanna”.  NJ players are horrifically weak as shit in these first few weeks.  Even some of the players winning are making bad -ev plays, that's why he said that.  I agree.  More WACKY plays then I have even seen online on man sites or live.

mikewebb68
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December 31, 2013 - 3:18 am
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OK, I did tank-call since I did put A-J and A-Q in villians range. He tabled 9-9, and I won the race, but I thought about whether I played the hand correctly afterward, which why I posted. 

 

Thanks all, by continuing to opine in here we call all learn and grow!

Chuck Blaze
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January 4, 2014 - 2:59 am
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To me the line reads he likes his hand but doesn't want to see a flop. I think we can take out KK, AA as this type of player will try to usually trap with those hands. so I'd reading his range to be 99-QQ, AK. I think someone flat happy flats AQ, AJ and plays pretty fit or fold post. I'm really torn on 88 but 88 doesn't change the equity we have that much.

 

QQ-99,AKs,AKo we have 45 %

QQ-99,AKs,AKo, AQs, AQo we have 51 %

 

We have the equity to call in either scenerio but its a very slight preflop edge. I think it comes down to the edge we think we can apply going forward with either or 28bb stack or 50+ bb stack, how easy the table has been in other spots to pick up chips, and the overall structure going forward (are we gonna be alot shorter real quick).

 

i don't mind taking a flip here as I think you can apply your edge much greater with the bigger stack. I just hate raise folding AKo with our stack size and its a good risk to take.

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