January 14, 2017
No Limit Hold’em Tournament T15/T30
Buy-in: $10+$1 USD Hold’em No Limit
PokerStars
9 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows
Stacks:
UTG – UTG (T4,988)
UTG+1 – UTG+1 (T4,988)
UTG+2 – Hero (T4,988)
MP – MP (T5,129)
MP2 – MP2 (T5,054)
CO – CO (T5,054)
BTN – BTN (T4,853)
SB – SB (T4,958)
BB – BB (T4,988)
Preflop: (T81, 9 players) Hero is UTG+2 with 9♥ 9♣
2 folds, Hero raises to T66, 3 folds, BTN calls T66, 2 folds
Flop: 5♣ A♣ 2♠ (T213, 2 players – BTN: T4,783, Hero: T4,918)
Hero checks, BTN bets T120, Hero calls T120
Turn: 9♠ (T453, 2 players – BTN: T4,663, Hero: T4,798)
Hero checks, BTN bets T450,
What should Hero do here?
July 7, 2012
ok, second attempt to answer this – first one got dumped.
What is villains range? given that he has just flatted the BTN pre, his range can be capped i.e. it is v unlikely that he has AA but not impossible, equally it is unlikely he has AK but not impossilble as people do flat both of these with a small frequency. Other possible holdings are 55 and 22 that might take this line on the turn, equally 34suited is the nuts in this hand and 2 combos can river a flush. 3,4 is a possible holding but I would give it a reduced likely hood. It is also possible he is on a semi bluff here with something like KsJs e.g. he repp’d the Ace on the flop because you checked to him then picked up a flush draw on the turn, when you check called the flop it is most likely you have either a weal Ace or an underpair, to get you off either on the turn he bets big, at the same time this builds a pot it you get stubborn and call again and he hits river.
Now, against the above you are only crushed by AA (which he only shows up with a small portion of the time), you are a dog to 3,4 but have a good amount of outs, and way ahead of everything else. I am weighting him more towards 55, 22, AT-AQ, and semi-bluffs all of which we crush. I am raising on the turn to get max value from these hands right now, as there a a bunch of river cards that will shut down the action. I would be willing to go with it as well if he puts us all-in (which he would with 55 and 22), if he shows up with AA or 34 so be it and good game.
aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1
PocketFives Profile: .....urbulence/
May 1, 2016
I think a bigger raise preflop is preferred here. You’re SUPER deep, and when you hit the ideal board (like this one) you really want to be able to get max value. I like a raise to 90 or 100 preflop.
On the flop, I also prefer a cbet as a check/call gives you almost no information about the hand. A lot of Vs here will bet nearly their whole range when checked to in this spot, so you really just bloat the pot. If you are certain the V will shut down after bluffing the flop then the ck/call line seems better, but it gives you a lot of really tough decisions if you miss your 2 outer on the turn and V fires again.
As played, I think a ck/raise is mandatory here. Any hand that the V would bet a third time OTR with for value will be calling or raising your ck/raise anyway, so you’ll get the value you want and you’ll get to decide how much it will be also. Any bluff is relatively unlikely to bomb the river IMO given your ck/call, ck/call line. And you’ll also get value on the turn from any flush draw or pair + gutshot that may not give you action OTR. I like a big check raise, as it seems V’s range is rather inelastic here. If he calls, he’ll probably call a lot of sizes, and if he folds, sizing doesn’t really matter. I would probably ck/raise to about 1500-1650, as that sets up about a pot sized shove OTR.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I think preflop sizing is fine, smaller in early position is beneficial. I would probably c-bet 100% of my range on this flop though, since your range advantage is quite big in this spot – you have way more Ax combos than villain, proportionally speaking.
As played, I would definitely advocate for a check-raise on the turn. You get significant value from Ax some portion of the time, and you probably stack any two pair or set. If you check-call again then the most you’re likely to get is one more reasonable-sized river bet from certain specific hands that would fold the turn to a raise, plus you allow villain to realize equity with his bluffs/FDs.
Make it ~1400 on turn, jam any non-club river. A club river is awkward, but if it’s a club >T then it blocks a lot of villain’s FDs. There are few difficult spots here. You don’t have many c/r bluffs in your turn range but in an $11 tournament I doubt you’ll need them.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
theginger45 said
I would probably c-bet 100% of my range on this flop though, since your range advantage is quite big in this spot – you have way more Ax combos than villain, proportionally speaking.
Generally agree with Matt’s post, but I don’t think it’s necessarily the case that range advantage implies 100% c-bet. I haven’t actually run this in a solver, but KK is an example of a hand that probably has a clear preference for checking flop, and I imagine this hand is at least indifferent between betting and checking.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
rbbeagles13 said
On the flop, I also prefer a cbet as a check/call gives you almost no information about the hand. A lot of Vs here will bet nearly their whole range when checked to in this spot, so you really just bloat the pot. If you are certain the V will shut down after bluffing the flop then the ck/call line seems better, but it gives you a lot of really tough decisions if you miss your 2 outer on the turn and V fires again.
OK, so you’re saying checking causes V to put money into the pot with a bunch of hands Hero beats. You don’t have to be sure he’ll give up bluffs on the turn, just that there’s a chance he will. Poker isn’t about certainty (or about acquiring perfect information, which it seems like is what you’re looking for by betting the flop).
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