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June 23, 2014
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I've been coming across this issue quite a bit lately, and I'd like to know your take. In early to middle position, when antes are involved, how do you handle mid pairs with 15-20BB stack?
For instance, today, I minraised from MP 77's with 18BBs to start. Action was folded to the Villain in the cutoff who minraised 3-bet with 27BB's to start the hand. It was folded around back to me. Is it best to flat call there, fold, min 4bet, or jam? It's such an awkward stack size, but in a tournament where stacks are generally shallow late, I often am lost on what is most optimal way of playing these type of pairs.
Thoughts?
October 21, 2012
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I shove it preflop personally. I can get called by worse, flipping with a lot, and dont mind taking down the 2.5bbs when I only have 18 to start. This is not a hand I want action with.
December 24, 2013
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Marc's video series on note taking talked a bit about this. If you are going to be called more correctly, I think I just fold. Youre risking 18bb where the profit you see is often under 1bb. I'm in the lower variance if you can camp, I guess. I'd prefer shoving the wider range in late position than shoving that many blinds in early position. I think that it's difficult to quantify the probability of having a shove spot in the next two orbits with a higher success rate. Like if you're never getting folds from TT+ and AK, you're looking at 3.5% x # of opponents left to act. Well utg, that often means youre getting it in in bad shape 25% of the time overall.
(this isn't exactly specific to your particular hand, it's the approach I take overall)
May 20, 2013
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I had never heard this “shortcut” metric before. If I am looking to play a pair <TT (or even 76s), I can count the number of players to act * 3.5% to estimate the odds of running into TT+/AK? Is that right?
jacobsharktank said:
if you're never getting folds from TT+ and AK, you're looking at 3.5% x # of opponents left to act. Well utg, that often means youre getting it in in bad shape 25% of the time overal
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TPE Management
July 20, 2010
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prolly open and fold live an hate every second of it and most likely rip online, this is actually one of those spots that gets talked about alot when comparing live to online. If you open a small stack and get played back at its most likely your not good this applies to live fosho but online can be different, but even online you have to considor opponents hand strength when there willing to play back at your stack of 15-20 bigs it just seems online that theres alot more flips in this spot where live your crushed
December 24, 2013
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Yep! You can check the math yourself.
{TT-AA, AK} is 46 hand combos. There are 1326 hand combos possible.
46/1326= .0347 or 3.47% of hands. If you are in the small blind with only the big blind left to go, 3.47% of the time he will have that range. If you’re on the button, the small blind and big blind remain to act. You will run into that range 6.94% of the time, and so on. If you want to look at it like a shortcut, sure, but really it’s just multiplication and addition.
The ranges by which you’ll be called change by position, as I’m sure you’re aware. The nutted end of the range will almost never fold regardless of position, however, so it is useful to note where you are.
…..shicm.html
This is a useful calculator to check unexploitable shoves. If you put 100% of the prize in 1st place, it is my understanding you’ll have it very near cEV. It doesn’t give you the profitability on that range, but you can imagine that the lower end of it is higher variance and lower profit.
December 24, 2013
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Quoting isn’t working for me unfortunately…
“it just seems online that theres alot more flips in this spot where live your crushed”
Yea this is all from that skill differential I think. Online you have more people aware of the %edges with hands over ranges, on top of the ability to play multiple games multiple times forever and ever, and that leads to people taking the small edges. If everyone knew how to play the short stack unexploitably and didn’t try getting creative…
(where I mean somehow splitting your range in order to get your opponent to split their range and fold parts that reduce seeing all five- like 3bet/calling with like 99 to look stronger than it actually is but still profitable to get them to fold KQ/AT-AQ…Daniel Coleman’s thread+digging through other threads on hu hypers got me thinking more on this. it’s really complex math that I haven’t touched just yet)
…then taking those <1bb jumps is unexploitable but incredibly high variance. Ttwist, if we're raising as a pure steal, would it make more sense to use hands that flop better than pairs? If we face blinds that defend wide with direct odds, cbetting is necessary and it's easier to do so with better postflop playability. Since we're folding to a playback anyway, I think this makes senes.
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December 6, 2012
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jacobsharktank said:
Yep! You can check the math yourself.
{TT-AA, AK} is 46 hand combos. There are 1326 hand combos possible.
46/1326= .0347 or 3.47% of hands. If you are in the small blind with only the big blind left to go, 3.47% of the time he will have that range. If you're on the button, the small blind and big blind remain to act. You will run into that range 6.94% of the time, and so on. If you want to look at it like a shortcut, sure, but really it's just multiplication and addition.
This is a reasonable approximation when the range you're worried about is a small number, but strictly speaking the math is a bit more complicated than this. If you want to know the odds that at least one of Players A and B will weak up with a given 3.47% of hands, the odds that A will have it 3.47%. For B, it's .0347 * (1-.0347). Basically, you're looking now at the probability that A doesn't have it AND B does. If you don't do this, you end up counting twice the cases where they both get those hands. So the odds that at least one of two players gets a top 3.47% hand is 6.82%, not 6.94%. Like I said, it's a small difference dealing with small numbers, but if you want to know the odds of at least one of those players having a top 20% hand, it's 36%, not 40%, so with bigger numbers it makes a noticeable difference.
December 24, 2013
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For someone who studied math, I don't know how I didn't realize that. lol thanks, Andrew
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August 25, 2012
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In general, I find that it's very important to consider player types when responding to these kinds of 3bets. There are plenty of players who are just never going to try to 3bet you light when you open from a sub-20bb stack – and in many instances this is correct, because it's so hard to avoid giving yourself correct odds to call off in that spot. If the villain here has almost no light 3betting range and he makes it a standard sizing, it seems like a fold is easy enough.
However, in spots like this one where it's possible that the player is not only weak enough to 3bet you fairly light, but also weak enough that his light 3bet range may not be very well-defined or especially polarized, I think it's acceptable to call if it's literally a minraise and you're reasonably confident that they're going to make some bad decisions postflop. The better the player, the less likely I am to want to play postflop in general, and especially on weird stacksizes like this.
May 14, 2013
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Hi Ginger45!
Hope you will do a deep serie on stack sizes and moves especially shallow stack and trends in MTT nowadays like 15-30bb
theginger45 said:
In general, I find that it's very important to consider player types when responding to these kinds of 3bets. There are plenty of players who are just never going to try to 3bet you light when you open from a sub-20bb stack – and in many instances this is correct, because it's so hard to avoid giving yourself correct odds to call off in that spot. If the villain here has almost no light 3betting range and he makes it a standard sizing, it seems like a fold is easy enough.
However, in spots like this one where it's possible that the player is not only weak enough to 3bet you fairly light, but also weak enough that his light 3bet range may not be very well-defined or especially polarized, I think it's acceptable to call if it's literally a minraise and you're reasonably confident that they're going to make some bad decisions postflop. The better the player, the less likely I am to want to play postflop in general, and especially on weird stacksizes like this.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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im rarely r/f'ing mid pp's in this spot with this stack size online. sometimes ill open with a plan of 4betting players A,B,C,… and only folding if i get 3b by some weak-tight player profile D. in later positions i like putting in the last penny with these hands if you can help it, so sometimes im shoving 77 in HJ/CO/BTN vs players who defend and play ok post, and r/shoving, r/calling vs aggro players preflop.
in-game, the player profiles make all the difference to me here
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