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Theoretical Pocket Pair Situation
SonicNY
Grinding Micros
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May 26, 2015 - 3:46 pm
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Say you are in position on a villain with a pocket pair like JJ through AA. Preflop the villain raises say 2.2x, and you decide to just flat instead of raising. Typically in a spot where you are trying to disguise the hand because you recently played a similar hand to showdown. So now the flop comes something along the lines of 10 7 3 rainbow. You pretty much know you have the best hand barring a weird play or possible draw. But since you disguised it pre-flop as not having a large hand would you still raise if he cbets or do you try to continue the disguise by just flatting and letting the villain spaz. Is it also reasonable to say that it depends and you can take either approach as long as you vary your play from time to time?

SonicNY
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May 26, 2015 - 3:49 pm
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I guess as a follow-up, part of this situation is asking in general whether it could be beneficial to the hero to create a story and then make a move that breaks the story as a means to confuse an opponent further.

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Deadkingg13
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May 26, 2015 - 6:27 pm
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I guess this can be dependant on your villain if they fold a lot to a raise and are pretty tight calling is okay and allowing a turn but if you have js or qs and the turn comes up A or K you may want to get to showdown cheaply knowing they may have hit this would go for someone that’s a call station knowing they have to overs as well. Maybe even more so because if they catch up and are never folding it will cost you more chips. With a call station villain having Ks or As I Might be more inclined to re raise and extract more value where getting to showdown and winning well get you max chips or even get a re shove with a lower pair or A10 if they are spewy. And the opposite if they play passive letting them catch up and trap

joelshitshow
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May 26, 2015 - 8:20 pm
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I guess it only matters if your opponent is sophisticated so let’s assume that. (If he isn’t, then there is no value in flatting pre.)

When I think of this psychologically, I want to make my story consistent. Here’s why. In politics, when you confuse a voter on an initiative, they will vote “no,” because it’s safer. Using that thought process, I don’t want to have an inconsistent story with the villain, because if I confuse him he’ll vote “no,” meaning he’ll fold. The only time I want him confused is when I call his “value” bet on the river 🙂

theginger45

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June 7, 2015 - 12:19 pm
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It all entirely depends on the flop and how you expect the villain to respond. On many flops, an overpair will be very close to the top of your range, so it makes sense to raise for value, but on others, your range will hit the flop harder, and just calling with overpairs makes more sense. Similarly, it makes more sense to slowplay more against aggressive villains.

The other thing that's important to note is that 'mixing it up' doesn't have as much value as people think. If raising the flop with AA in a certain hand is the best play, it's likely to be the play you should make 100% of the time until villain begins adapting – there's very little reason to ever do anything different unless you believe you're likely to play enough hands in future against that specific villain that it might actually be +EV in the long term to change that villain's perception of your range in that particular spot.

SonicNY
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June 7, 2015 - 2:37 pm
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I see I see. Thanks for the responses.

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