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The bigger 11, folding trips to river 3bet
7king
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February 22, 2016 - 3:22 am
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Hi!

We’re very close to the money here, although I don’t think that has to much of an impact on my decision. 

No real reads on villain. Got only 15 hands on him and he has played just 1. So he may be tight, but can’t be to sure of that with the small sample size. 

I am betting small on the turn and river as I’m sure I have the best hand and there is not much the other players can have that wants to continue on this board. Hoping they have pocket pairs that wants to call when the flop checks around. When btn calls turn I put him on small/medium pocket pairs flush draw or maybe even a week queen. So his river shove didn’t make much sense as a bluff. I put him on 33,55, 88 or decent Qs, although discounted as I’m blocking it. I don’t think he has Q3,Q5 as he was calling an EP raise preflop. So I fold, because I only beat QJ, QT, (Q9) and bluffs which doesn’t make sense because he must be putting me on some kind of hand.

I’m trying to improve my hand reading skills, so this was a good exercise for me. 

Did I miss something here? 

Foucault

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February 22, 2016 - 12:54 pm
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Looks good to me.

MovieFX
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February 22, 2016 - 7:16 pm
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I hate spots like this because why would someone with the nuts over-bet the pot like that when you’ve been betting so small. I agree his line looks like a boat and it is probably a great fold, but doesn’t he have to put you on exactly QQQxx when he does this?
 – A pair would be happy calling to see a showdown in case you do have a Q. 
 – A flopped boat that doesn’t include a Q is vulnerable, but maybe never a fold? This is the most likely I guess.
 – A flopped boat with a Q wouldn’t put you on a Q very easily, so why shove and not value-raise? Is V hoping you hit a set for a boat?
 – A flopped Q that boats up later doesn’t make a whole lot of sense on the flop, checking with a flush draw and last to act. Especially because the kicker can’t be high enough to make a naked spade all that valuable except as a blocker. Hero’s check is different being first to act and not being the pre-flop aggressor.

I probably call and lose here just because I can’t think of a clear line that over bets the pot…which is probably why he does it. I can see some missed draws in his range considering your betting could look weak to some. On the other hand it seems suicidal, but people just hand over stacks sometimes.

 

Andrew, I was watching one of your hand reviews yesterday and you were talking about shoving for value. I think this is probably where I need to take a lesson. Lets assume V has the nuts here. Is a shove by V correct because he is getting value from the top of most people’s range and figuring a c/r is already so strong that any hand that wouldn’t call a shove is folding no matter what anyway? Isn’t there room for V c/r smaller, like 2.5x Hero’s bet?

It just seems fishy to me that he is betting over pot, which is over 4x Hero’s bet. Almost like he doesn’t want a call. I tend to bet smaller here (~2.5x), in V’s shoes, hoping for a call or to inducing a re-raise, but maybe I’m losing a lot of value and being too results oriented the times where people just fold (since they would have folded anyway). 

lapp3r30
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February 22, 2016 - 10:01 pm
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I like a donk on this flop multi way.  Better with reads and some stats on the players but… I like the spot.  People will spew here when you donk… I’d keep my sizing smallish.  A lot of worse hands will raise you here.  SPR of 3ish post flop I’m not folding this.  As played it looks ok.  I might have busted this hand and I’m fine w it.  If I’m calling OOP and flopping trips I’m just going broke here vs the BTN if he has better. 

clubdiamondheartspade
lapp3r30
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February 22, 2016 - 10:06 pm
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@MovieFX BTW the shove is less than pot.

Foucault

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February 23, 2016 - 12:50 am
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Ya Movie this is a less than pot-sized raise, but regardless I think you need to stop making this distinction between a big bet and a “value bet” as though people can’t or shouldn’t bet big with strong hands. The only reason not to bet big with a strong hand would be if your opponent is definitely going to fold his bluff-catchers, in which case you should bet with your bluffs, in which case your opponent has incentive to call with bluff-catchers, in which case you should bet big with your value hands….

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