February 8, 2017
This is a weird hand. I’m okay with Preflop and Flop. Argument could be made for 4betting, but this villain seems to 3bet a very tight range from the BB over a significant sample. I don’t see a good reason to bet flop but, as always, I’m open to being convinced.
I think Turn should be a bet. This villain probably doesn’t check-raise as a bluff nearly often enough for me to have a hard decision if I face a raise. I can’t really decide on sizing here, I think maybe 13bb. Opinions?
As played, do you ever consider raising small on the river?
PokerStars – 60/120 Ante 15 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
TORTOF (CO): 31.82 BB
EatMyFish (BTN): 115.11 BB
Guizãoo_ (SB): 33.52 BB
SiD11211 (BB): 103.5 BB
Linkager (UTG): 42.52 BB
gonzabon14 (UTG+1): 45.33 BB
ceenix11 (MP): 37.77 BB
guicosta94 (MP+1): 19.96 BB
xRt! (MP+2): 25.22 BB
9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, Guizãoo_ posts SB 0.5 BB, SiD11211 posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) EatMyFish has A K
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, EatMyFish raises to 2.6 BB, fold, SiD11211 raises to 9.42 BB, EatMyFish calls 6.82 BB
Flop: (20.47 BB, 2 players) J 9 T
SiD11211 checks, EatMyFish checks
Turn: (20.47 BB, 2 players) A
SiD11211 checks, EatMyFish checks
River: (20.47 BB, 2 players) 5
SiD11211 bets 10 BB, EatMyFish ?
May 1, 2016
Gonna second almo here for the most part. I disagree with his turn analysis though.
You said that V doesn’t ck-raise bluff often enough OTT, so therefore, turn should be an easy bet-fold. If he really is too passive, then you want to him to call with anything he’s calling with, and he’ll tell you if you’re beat.
Preflop is fine, I see no reason to inflate the pot with AKo when you’re this deep and IP. Flop is fine, if you turn your hand into a semi-bluff here with a gutshot, he only folds worse and calls better. I don’t think he’s ever folding better (minus 22-77, and would he really 3bet those preflop?).
I think the bottom line here is deciding if he’s the type to 3bet a button open more aggressively than a MP open. Yes, when you raise from early or mid position, a BB 3bet tends to be quite strong, as most hands have great incentive to simply call and take a flop with great odds. But if he’s the type to assume a lot of LP raises are stealing, a case could be made for 4betting pre. But I like the flat pre, I probably do the same.
Again, flop is check for sure. The turn COULD be a bet, but that depends on your read of V’s ck-raising range on the turn. As played, I call river, as your hand is slightly under-repped. You’re getting 3-1, so you only need to win 33% of the time. And I think he could easily be value betting worse. AJ, AT, A9 all likely bet turn, as the draws are plentiful. AQ probably bets flop, and certainly bets turn a lot. JT, J9, and T9 all likely bet flop for the same reasons (but how often is he 3betting those hands preflop? I mean, against a button open, he probably should some percentage of the time, but most players don’t). You block the nuts with your K, and so I would call pretty quickly, and expect to see a weaker ace, KK, or KJ. But given you hold a king, I’d say a weaker ace is most likely. Well played, overall.
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