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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Take the chip EV spot here or fold?

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Take the chip EV spot here or fold?

StrongValour

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August 5, 2015 - 12:18 pm

Hi. I found this spot yesterday and was wondering if it is worth calling here with 10Q suited. I ran it through hold em calculator and this a pretty good +EV spot but wondering if we should fold here as we are down to final 27 players in the hot $11 and this is a one of those wierd ICM spots where we should fold?

CO: 971,934 (19.4 bb)
BTN: 616,117 (12.3 bb)
SB: 692,650 (13.9 bb)
Hero (BB): 311,363 (6.2 bb)
UTG: 809,292 (16.2 bb)
MP: 120,071 (2.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T Q
UTG folds, MP raises to 113,821 and is all-in, CO folds, BTN raises to 609,867 and is all-in, 2 folds

Flop: (340,142) 3 A 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Turn: (340,142) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (340,142) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

ltcolumbo

the D

High Stakes Shark

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August 5, 2015 - 12:46 pm

can you post your calculations? what ranges did you assign them?

I would expect to go home 9 out of 10 times with a call here. would like to see what it really calculates out to be…

StrongValour

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August 5, 2015 - 1:28 pm

This is assuming MP shoving range is 22 Kx Q2s and that BTN 3 bet range is 22 A3o+ K9o+.

Cass

Lighting Money On Fire

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August 5, 2015 - 2:45 pm

I think this is a call unless BTN is a nit and/or u think that he is not cappable of knowing this is a good spot to iso the 2.5 bb and 3bet shove “wide” (+ev), if he is shoving correctly i think u are rewarding even more to him for doing it by folding,

by correctly(gto) 3bet is this: 22+, A2s+, A3o+, K6s+, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, T9s (I dont think this is to crazy if u are vs a V that understand the spot) and QTs has +0.82bb on the call.

I dont think ICM is a factor, the payjumps are for table(27-19 cash the same) until the final two tables. (but been 6 handed, if the guy bust u go to the final 2 tables right? If thats true this a clear fold then.

Luckydog765

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August 5, 2015 - 8:48 pm

I would think this is a clear fold and wait for a spot to drive the action.

iball83

Home Game Champ

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August 6, 2015 - 5:17 am

I like fold here. It's an odd spot with the 2bb shove in MP. I would call if it had folded round and the BTN shoved as he would be doing that much wider. I think the MP allin makes BTN shoving range that bit tighter, the SB has him covered so he's not going to go super wide given that he has to show down the hand anyway.

florianm1

Playing The Prelims

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August 6, 2015 - 9:17 am

i assume normaly with 27left the stacks are distributed in a way that we can play chipEV to the next pay jump.

if there are 8-9stacks with 1-2BB left then i might fold as we can move couple of spots.

but with 6bb i thin we are at the lower end of the field so i would not pass up this clearly +cEV spot

joelshitshow

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August 7, 2015 - 1:43 am

Button range is wide but not crazy wide. There are bigger stacks behind, and he has 12 bigs himself in a tournament where the average stack looks pretty short based on the stacks at your table.

You could have live cards if you're behind. If 19-27 pay the same, this is a call. But I am confused how you're 6-handed with 27 left if the hot $11 is a 9-handed tournament.

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