Just pasting my exit hand from the Super Stack – is call-fold the correct play? If the club doesn't hit the turn?
The villain had been previously all in and sucked out with top pair mediocre kicker 3 times in the past 5 orbits.
My reasoning for the jam was flawed as I am sure I have no FE here – I just thought I win this pot I am chip leader and can splash aroun
Full Tilt Poker Super Stack $15K Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t4000/t8000 Blinds + t1000 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
tigerspeck (BB): BB = 31.5, t252182
gypsysoul21 (UTG): BB = 52.9, t422927
hawkaloogee (UTG+1): BB = 21.7, t173294
pelo81 (UTG+2): BB = 25.2, t201770
leroyjack (MP1): BB = 33.1, t265049
DRJohnMd (MP2): BB = 29.1, t233140
boandaro (CO): BB = 25.8, t206242
Sasha_Savin (BTN): BB = 20.5, t163678
POTthejacks (SB): BB = 24.4, t195163
Pre Flop: (t21000) tigerspeck is BB with A 6
gypsysoul21 raises to t17111, 1 fold, pelo81 calls t17111, 3 folds, Sasha_Savin calls t17111, 1 fold, tigerspeck calls t9111
Flop: (t81444) K J 7 (4 players)
tigerspeck checks, gypsysoul21 checks, pelo81 bets t81444, Sasha_Savin folds, tigerspeck requests TIME, tigerspeck raises to t234071 all in, gypsysoul21 folds, pelo81 calls t102215 all in
Turn: (t448762) K (2 players – 2 are all in)
River: (t448762) 8 (2 players – 2 are all in)
Short answer I'm folding pre out of BB, but your pretty big deep stack so doesn't hurt to take a flop. Geez man at his pot bet, um I'm not folding this flop sorta the way the hand is played you have to get it in here but your probably up against AK/KJ or a set of 77's, really doubt he pot bets it with QT/2nd nut flush draw. Your a 25% favorite if up against a set, only 35% against KJ and at best 40% against AK but um I have a hard time folding here so I'm getting it in and fist pumping. I don't have the odd's thing I just did it manually.
GG sir
Really hate the flat here. Wouldn't like it any better with a deeper stack either. These suited Ax hands are totally unprofitable to play oop. Your gonna flop 2 clubs about 1 in 8 times and even when you do, it will probably cost you way too much to get to see the turn.
Speck, really think eliminating flats like this from the blinds alone will improve your roi a notch or two.
I think your call preflop is fine seeing as you're getting 8:1 and are looking to smash a flop. When this particular flop arrives I feel you should be looking to get your chips in the middle WITH fold equity. When Pelo pots it I think I fold straight away. I think sometimes we see that we have the nut flush draw and do everything to get the chips in the middle, without looking at his possible range. There's no way he's folding here having bet pot so I fold.
However, if we can put his range as… JJ,77,KJs+,KTs,QTs,T9s,KJo+,QTo we have 48.05% equity
We can expect him to call our jam 100% of the time so essentially we're calling 184,659 to win 266,103 which makes means we need 1.44:1 or 41% to make this call.
If we can take out the OESD hands in his range then we have 37.7% equity, which makes this a fold.
You said that villain is a bit of a fish which would suggest he's not potting here with an OESD so I think I would fold here.
July 3, 2010
On a deeper stack it's a 3 bet/fold hand. Here it's just a fold.
It's a UTG raise. You're either flopping a flush draw and playing for stacks or you're flopping an Ace and still may not be good a large amount of the time. A 25 bb flat from Pelo should be a pretty good hand, too.
Thanks for the input guys – I would just like to add the following:
REASON FOR FLATTING:
* I was getting 7.93 to 1 TO SMASH THE FLOP
* The other two players in the pot were very, very very passive – i.e.: fold to CBet % extremely high
* Although Sasha_Savin is 20BB deep he/she has 3x openened 2 pots and folded to cbet when they were 22-24 BB deep
REASON FOR JAMMING (Although in hindsight not correct):
* Villain is hyper aggressive who's jammed TPMK previously and slowed played monsters
ADDITIONAL QUESTION:
What flop bet are you calling here?
PS: You will never guess what he called my jam with.
Did he call you with Tc 9d? Altho you're gettin 8:1 odds for a call with a suited Ace, playing off odds can sometimes hurt you late in tournaments. I'd only call with this hand OOP if I were 40BB+ deep.
I have to agree with mmfitter that when you do flop two clubs its going to cost you to see turn or river and this can be a a leak on loosing chips.
But I don't mind the way that you've played it, it gives you some fold eq and if called then you have outs to double up.
Thanks uk,
I know the jam is incorrect irrespective of the outcome – it is a huge leak of mind getting spewy with less than 50 remaining in a tourney.
PS:
He called K 8 and proceeded turn trips and river a FULL HOUSE – Ahemmm knowing this I could have definitely waited for a better spot because this dude is ready to DONATE.
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