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Super short 44 with UTG+1 raiser at final table and a BB that is willing to gamble
jgripp81
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October 13, 2016 - 12:07 am
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Played at the local casino for the first time since late August. When we split to the final 2 tables (10 max), I was one of the chip leaders with 35-40bb. I was card dead for the next 45 min and won 1 small pot and got a walk. I also had the far and away chip leader to my left. Made it the the final table of 10 with all players in the money. I just had over 2bb (i know i should “never” blind away to that low). At this point most players are 10 bb deep. I was able to double up a few times and survive 2 other player getting KO before me. Ok, time for the hand in question.

Blinds are 5k/10k/1k and I’m sitting with about 50k in the cutoff. UTG+1 raises to 30k. I was at the other table with him and he was a nit. With his nitty style i put him on maybe 10s+ and broadway cards. Folds to me with 44. The stacks behind me have me covered but the blinds just barely have me covered. I have history with the BB. he is the gambling type and would probably shove his 7bb stack over my 5bb shove with almost any 2 that would do well in a 3 way pot with over 200k in the middle.

With a 25% payout increase between 9th and 8th. is this a shove or fold on my part? 

Thanks 

gingernuts
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October 13, 2016 - 2:21 pm
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Just my opinion, before someone more experienced can answer

Id fold, you put utg1 with tens and broadways so flipping at best or way behind to his pairs with several short stacks and awkward BB still to act. your in the cut off so there u have a few hands more to pick a better spot and hope you ladder more in the process. Hope I’m not just making a bad fold there and missing out. 

kmid
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October 14, 2016 - 12:06 pm
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Fold, 44 does very badly against the range that you’ve assigned the original raiser.  

joelshitshow
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October 14, 2016 - 11:33 pm
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To pile on, I would say if your read on the BB is right, he might shove and get called here, allowing you to ladder up if he gets knocked out. I’m assuming the raiser has a bigger stack (because why else would he be raising instead of shoving).

But, this is a math problem provided you can range your opponents correctly.

jgripp81
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October 17, 2016 - 6:34 pm
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Thanks for the replies. I did fold thinking it was the right decision, thanks for confirming it.

Only reason i considered shoving this hand was because my fold equity on future shoves was diminishing quickly and if this was a spot worth the gamble. 

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