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Super Math Nerd Theory on Stack Value and Push Ranges
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FloppedBackdoorTrips
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July 23, 2012 - 6:38 am
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Hey guys,

 

So I'm in the middle of an HH review and came to a spot where I had KQo UTG w/12BBs postante.  Stacks at table range from 8.5BBs to 60BBs, with most in the 30-40 range.

 

I wanted to figure out whether this is a good shove spot or not.

 

The Nash Equillibrium calculator has KQo well within the UTG shove range.  However, Nash is for balance, not maximizing EV.

 

To estimate the expectation of a shove, I gave villains the calling range of 88+, AQ+, AJs.  With this calling range, the chipEV of the shove would be about +0.25 BBs.

 

Of course, we could argue about their calling ranges or whatever, but I'm not really interested in that right now.

 

The question I wanted to ask you guys is, what kind of chipEV makes a shove worth risking our stack, and what kind of factors affect this target?

 

Since chips we lose are worth more than chips we gain, it doesn't seem +$EV to risk our stack for a quarter of a big blind in expectation.

duggs
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July 23, 2012 - 6:44 am
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disagree with the assumption that chips we lose are worth more than chips we gain, 

our equity comes from having a deep enough stack to realise our edge, this doesnt come from push/folding 12bb, so the equity gained from increasing our stack is greater than that lost by passing up this spot IMO

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DaNta5tiC
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July 23, 2012 - 7:59 am
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Probably taking into account that you're going to be in the blind the next hand. I think this is a Jam all day. I would go minimum they're jamming like 38% of their range then you're a 54% favorite preflop. I don't know how low that people really wanna go with their chipstacks, but I like to be comfortable when I play. I don't want to have to keep jamming / folding the entire time. I'd rather take a gamble spot and hope I hold when I'm ahead and suckout when behind.

bennymacca
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July 24, 2012 - 4:17 am
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duggs said:

disagree with the assumption that chips we lose are worth more than chips we gain, 

our equity comes from having a deep enough stack to realise our edge, this doesnt come from push/folding 12bb, so the equity gained from increasing our stack is greater than that lost by passing up this spot IMO

i think he is talking about ICM in which case the chips you lose are definitely more than the chips you gain, that is the principle of ICM

 

i think the answer to this is to incorporate ICM into your EV calculations, which can be done. 

duggs
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July 24, 2012 - 5:46 am
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doesnt mention ICM anywhere, just says post ante.

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FloppedBackdoorTrips
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July 24, 2012 - 6:23 am
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The more I thought about the question, the more I thought that it was less a question about the specific cEV and more a question about the valuation of certain stack sizes, which is a concept that's been argued, discussed, and disected since the dawn of tournament poker. Kind of the equivilent of asking “What's the meaning of life?” or something.

 

I'm going to try not to ramble forever, since there's like a gazillion different things that would go into estimating the value of a certain stack.  But I did have a couple thoughts that I thought might interest at least a few people.

 

First, it seems to me that there might be certain inflection points where stacks jump in value…fold equity with preflop shoves, ability to play postflop, ability to 3B light, etc.

 

So with this in mind, my original thought was that its fine to fold here since the structure was really slow (20 min levels), but now I am thinking I should be jamming this because taking the blinds would probably cost me any re-shove fold equity, which would be a disaster.

 

And if these inflection points DO exist, then there are probably times where negative chip EV plays are actually positive $ EV.  I think bigdog's 43o hand in the Big 109 video is sort of an example of this (even thought it was pretty much break even chip EV).

JLUDEOBV
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July 25, 2012 - 12:47 am
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strongly agree with duggs on this one. i really think you are just thinking about this spot way too hard. yeah it's good to think outside the box but you have 12 BB's UTG with KQo put it in the middle. it's obv the bottom of our shoving range but i'm not sitting around with 10-15 BB's. you need to try and double so then you can find a lot more +EV spots to take advantage of. you just can't do anything with 12 BB's and under.

kingten102
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July 26, 2012 - 4:40 pm
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Prob a shove all day. stacks on your left and their supposed competence level are important
Here as well. If you can take the blinds and have tons of FE against stacks on your left then mayyyyybe you can wait.

If youre shipping kq here…..what are you doing with 22-66? And what does Nash say?

runningouts
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July 27, 2012 - 7:51 pm
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If you are playing for top 3 then this is definitely a shove in my opinion.

If you wanted to take ICM into account then there are spots where you could fold this hand.

In terms of how to play stack sizes then I think there are a number of ways to approach that. Personally I think I would jam a wider than KQo in that spot but other very successful players will happily go through the blinds. It depends on where your strengths are – if you think your edge is when you have a stack then you can take more gambles here.

ShortStackJack
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July 30, 2012 - 11:04 am
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Under 15bb in this spot sounds like a shove all day, every day to me. I'd take a deep breath, get in touch with my inner peace and hope to get called by underpairs.

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July 30, 2012 - 3:30 pm
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rip roaring imo

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